Mene ne zai iya yin tarnaƙi ga shirin tsagaita wuta tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine?

Ana sanar da cewa Amurka da Ukraine sun cimma yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta bayan doguwar tattaunawa a Saudiyya, sai hankali ya koma kan Rasha.

Kamar yadda Sakataren Harkokin Wajen Amurka, Marco Rubio ya bayyana, "yanzu komai na hannun Rasha."

Yanzu an samu amsar da ake tsimayi daga Shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin.

Ya bayyana goyon bayansa kan tsagaita wuta a yaƙin na Ukraine, amma ya bayyana wasu abubuwa da ya ce yana so a warware su.

Ya nanata cewa dole ne tsagaita wutar ta buɗe hanyar samar da zaman lafiya mai ɗorewa, inda ya ce za a cimma hakan ne idan "aka warware asalin matsalar da ta jawo yaƙin."

Sai dai har yanzu da ake ganin an kusa cimma yarjejeniyar, har yanzu akwai wasu abubuwa da suka jawo tarnaƙi.

Wane alfanu Ukraine za ta samu daga tsagaita wutar?

Mako biyu bayan cacar-bakin da aka yi tsakanin Shugaban Ukraine Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky da na Amurka Donald Trump, Kyiv ta yi ƙoƙari wajen dawo da Amurka teburin tattaunawa.

Yadda Ukraine ɗin ta amice da tsagaita wuta ta kwana 30 ne ya sa Amurka ta cigaba da ba ta gudunmuwar makamai da tattara bayanan sirri.

Ita ma Ukraine ta yi farin cikin hakan domin ta samu damar sauya tunanin mutane cewa ita ce ba ta son zaman lafiya, kamar yadda Rasha ta sha nanatawa.

Ita dai Ukraine ta daɗe tana nuna rashin amincewa da shiga tattaunawar har sai Rasha ta janye sojojinta daga yankunan ƙasarta.

Wannan ya sa wakilan Ukraine ɗin suka isa Jedda da buƙatar tsagaita wuta "ta sama da ta ruwa." amma banda ta ƙasa.

Amma kuma daddale batun ba Ukraine tabbaci - musamman domin ba ta kariya idan Rasha ta koma kai mata hari.

Amma duk da haka Ukraine ta amince da shiga yarjejeniyar saboda Amurka ta ce ba za ta bayar da wani tabbaci ba har an shiga yarjejeniyar.

Me Rasha za ta samu daga yarjejeniyar tsagaita wutar?

A baya, Vladimir Putin ya sha nanata batun tsagaita wuta na wani ɗan lokaci, amma Ukraine ba ta bayar da goyon baya ba.

Amma shi ma Putin bai cika nuna goyon baya ba kan batun dakatar da yaƙin baki ɗaya ba.

Wata majiya daga Kremlin ta shaida wa BBC cewa hukumomi a Rasha sun yi amannar cewa tsagaita wutar za ta amfanar Ukraine ne saboda sojojin Rasha, duk da wahalar da suke sha, suna ta samun nasarar kutsawa a yankunan Donbas da Kursk Ukraine.

Idan aka tsayar da yaƙin ba tare da Ukraine ta bayar da tabbacin rage buƙatunta ba, akwai alamar Putin zai cigaba da kutsawa domin cimma burinsa.

Babu tabbaci dai ko akwai batun kawo wa yarjejeniyar cikas, kamar yadda Yuri Ushakov ya bayyana. Amma jan ƙafar na kawo tarnaƙi tsakanin Rasha da Amurka, bayan dangantaka ta fara gyaruwa tsakanin ƙasashen biyu tun bayan da Trump ya ɗare karagar mulki.

Tun a watan Yuli 2024 ne Putin ya zayyana buƙatunsa kafin a shiga yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta.

Daga cikinsu akwai janyewar sojojin Ukraine daga yankunan Luhansk da Donetsk da Kherson da Zaporizhzhia da Rasha ta mamaye, da hana ƙasar Ukraine shiga NATO, da ɗage takunkumin da aka saka wa ƙasarsa.

Amma dukkan waɗannan ba sa cikin abubuwan da aka tattauna a Saudiyya.

A ɗaya ɓangaren kuma, cigaba da taimakawa Ukraine da makamai da Amurka ta yi zai iya ɓata wa Putin rai, wanda ya daɗe yana cewa taimakon da Amurka ke ba Ukraine na makamai na cikin abubuwan da suka hana yaƙin tsayawa.

Akwai tsarin faɗaɗa yarjejeniyar?

Rasha da Ukraine sun bayyana cewa a shirye suke a tabbatar da zaman lafiya mai ɗorewa, ba kawai a ɗan tsagaita ba. To amma me yake hana su cimma wannan manufar?

Wata majiyar BBC ta kusa da Kremlin ta ce saboda rashin tattaunawa tsakanin Ukraine da Rasha kai-tsaye, yanzu babu tabbacin matsayar kowace ƙasa.

"Ya kamata mu zauna ne mu rubuta takarda, wanda kuma zai ɗauki lokaci. Ya kamata mu zauna da Ukraine, sannan mu fahimci abubuwan da Putin ke so," in ji majiyar.

Haka kuma lamarin akwai ɗaure kai saboda har yanzu Rasha da Ukraine ɗin babu wadda ta zaɓi wakili na musamman domin tattaunawar.

"Akwai abubuwan siyasa masu wahala da ɗaure kai," in ji Samuel Charap, wani babban mai bincike a Cibiyar RAND.

"Dole ne ƙasashen biyu su haƙura da wasu buƙatunsu, kuma yana da wahalar gaske," in ji shi, sannan ya ƙara da cewa dole ne Rasha da Ukraine su riƙa tattaunawa da juna kai-tsaye domin su fahimci juna.

John Lough, wani babban mai bincike a Cibiyar Center for New Eurasian Strategies (NEST) kuma tsohon wakilin NATO a Moscow, ya ce akwai ƙalubale.

Me ake nufi da rage buri?

Daga cikin abubuwan da suke kawo tarnaƙi akwai batun kai dakarun wanzar lafiya Ukraine.

Da Faransa da Birtaniya na cikin masu wannan ra'ayin, sannan ƙasashe irin su Denmark da Australia na cikin waɗanda suka nuna ra'aayin shiga tsarin.

Sai dai wani babban jami'i da yake cikin tattaunawar da aka yi a taron da aka yi Landan game da Ukraine ya ce wasu ƙasashe da dama ba su da wannan ra'ayin.

Landan ta so a ce wasu ƙasashen sun bi ra'ayinta na tura dakarun wanzar da zaman lafiya, amma har yanzu ba ta samu goyon bayan ƙasashe da dama ba saboda wasunsu ma suna fama ne da matsalarsu ta cikin gida, kamar yadda wata majiya ta shaida wa BBC.

Haka kuma babu tabbacin Amurka za ta taimaka wa shirin aika dakarun, sannan Firaministan Birtaniya, Keir Starmer ya ce tura dakarun ba zai yiwu ba, ba tare da goyon bayan Amurka ba.

Hukumomi a Rasha ba su son aika dakarun wanzar da zaman lafiya ɗin, inda take yawan nanata cewa ba ta son ganin sojojin NATO kusa da iyakokinta.

A cewar Samuel Charap, za a iya cimma yarjejeniya sahihiya ce ta hanyar amfani da tsarin da aka bi wajen tsara yarjejeniya tsakanin Amurka da Isra'ila a Masar a shekarar 1975.

Majiyar BBC ma tana da irin wannan tunanin, domin a cewarta, Putin zai so haka, fiye da yunƙurin aika dakarun turai zuwa Ukraine.

Sai dai ƙasashen turai sun ce za su cigaba da ba Ukraine gudunmuwa ba tare da la'akari da matsayar Amurka ba.

Donald Trump ya yi barazanar ƙara wa Rasha takunkumi idan ba ta amince da tsare-tsaren ba. Amma waɗanne abubuwa ake magana wajen rage buri, bayan tsagaita wutar, wadda Amurka ke nema daga Ukraine.