Me ya sa ƙasashen Larabawa ke ɗari-ɗari kan yiwuwar rushewar gwamnatin Iran?

Bayan da tankiya ta ɓarke tsakanin Washington da Tehran sakamakon ƙazamin murkushe masu zanga-zanga da gwamnatin Iran ta yi, Saudi Arabia da Qatar da Oman, sun ƙaddamar da wani gagarumin yunƙuri na hana shugaban Amurka Donald Trump kai wa Iran hari, saboda fargabar cewa irin wannan matakin zai haifar da "mummunan martani a yankin", kamar yadda wani babban jami'in Saudiyya ya shaida wa AFP.

Jami'in na Saudiyya ya ce ƙasashen yankin Gulf guda uku sun gudanar da ƙasurgumin aikin diflomasiyya domin shawo kan shugaban Amurka ya bai wa shugabannin Iran damar nuna nadama, kuma har yanzu hanyoyin sadarwa a buɗe suke domin ƙarfafa amincewar juna.

Yaya ƙasashen yankin Gulf na Farisa ke kallon "makwabciyarsu da ek fama da rashin kwanciyar hankali" kuma menene damuwarsu kan halin da ta ke ciki?

Diflomasiyar ƙasashen Gulf cikin ƙurarren lokaci

Yiwuwar ɗaukar matakin soji na Amurka kan Iran ya kasance wani muhimmin batu da ke matuƙar kawo damuwa a ayyukan diflomasiyyan ƙasashen larabawa, musamman tsakanin kasashen da ke ƙungiyar ƙasashen yankin Gulf.

Wannan damuwar ta samo asali ne daga kusancin da suke da ƙasar Iran, wanda duk da kasancewarta makwabciya ƙasashen yankin Tekun Fasha, dangantaka tsakaninsu ta na tangal-tangal tsakanin takun saƙa zuwa samun cikakkiyar fahimta zauwa yankewar zamantakewa baki ɗaya.

Sai dai kuma, sake dawo da hulɗa tsakanin Saudiyya da Iran tare da shiga tsakani na ƙasar China a shekarar 2023, wani lokaci ne da ya kafa dangantakar a kan sabbin ginshiki, ciki har da mutunta ƙa'idar rashin tsoma baki a cikin harkokin cikin gidan juna, don samar da yanayin diflomasiyya na kwanciyar hankali.

A cikin wannan yanayi, wasu manyan biranen yankin Gulf sun ƙulla hulɗar diflomasiyya da ɓangarori daban-daban don hana ɓarkewar rikici kan Iran, wanda zai iya haifar da sauyin gwamnati.

Ƙasashen yankin tekun Fasha na da gagarumin ƙarfin tattalin arziki da kuma zuba jari mai yawa a ƙasar Amurka, yayin da a sa'i daya kuma suna daidaita hulɗar da ke tsakaninsu da sauran manyan ƙasashen duniya ciki har da ƙasar China.

Wannan kayan aiki ya ba su damar da ba a taɓa ganin irinta ba wajen tafiyar da husuma da kuma yin matsin lamba kan ɓangarori daban-daban da nufin hana ɓarkewar tashin hankalin soji a Iran, kuma mafi mahimmanci, tabbatar da cewa yankin Gulf ya kasance cikin ƴanci daga duk wani rikici.

Ahmed Shizawi, marubuci kuma mai sharhi kan harkokin siyasar Oman, ya yi imanin cewa, ƙasashen yankin Gulf na da ingantattaccen tsarin diflomasiyya da za su iya yin matsin lamba daga kowane ɓangare, ta hanyar sadarwa kai tsaye a lokutan tashin hankali ko kuma ta hanyar shiga tsakani, kamar abin da Oman ke yi da Iran.

Me ya sa ƙasashen yankin Gulf ke yunƙurin hana taɓarbarewar al'amura a Iran

A cikin shekaru 20 da suka gabata, ƙasashen yankin Gulf sun yi ƙoƙarin inganta tattalin arzikinsu a maimakon da dogaro da man fetur da kuma mayar da hankali kan ɓangarori daban-daban kamar ayyukan gidaje, yawon buɗe ido da fasaha da kiwon lafiya, da zuba jari. Sun kuma nemi ƙarfafa matsayinsu a tarukan duniya da cibiyoyin yanke shawara ta hanyar taka rawar shiga tsakani a lamuran kasa da kasa maus sarƙaƙiya.

To sai dai kuma a na su ɓangaren, har yanzu wannan yunƙurin na dauke da sharaɗin tabbatar da zaman lafiya a yankin, wanda duk wani hari da Amurka za ta iya kai wa Iran zai yi matuƙar tasiri.

Ahmed Shizawi, marubucim dan ƙasar Oman kuma manazarcin siyasa ya yi imanin cewa, ƙasashen yankin Gulf na fuskantar babban koma-baya dangane da yadda tashe-tashen hankula ke ƙara ƙamari a baya-bayan nan tsakanin Washington da Teheran, kuma suna kallon matakin na diflomasiyya a matsayin wani yunƙuri na tabbatar da tsaronsu a yankin da ka iya ganin taɓarɓrewar al'amura da ke barazana ga zaman lafiyarsu.

Yana mai cewa: "Don kiyaye zaman lafiya da tattalin arzikinsu da kuma hana ƙasashensu zama fagen daga a rikice-rikice tsakanin ƙasashen ketare, kodayaushe suna karkata zuwa ga tsarin diflomasiyya, da nufin jawo gwamnatin Amurka kan tafarkin diflomasiyya maimakon ɗaukar matakin soja. Suna ci gaba da ƙulla ƙawance da Amurka, kuma a lokaci guda suna hulɗa da babbar makwabciyarsu kamar Iran. Samar da daidaito tsakanin ƙawance da Washington da hulɗa da Tehran, ya kasance babban ƙalubale ga ƙungiyar haɗin gwiwar ƙasashen yankin Gulf."

Shin sauyin mulki a Iran ya dace da muradun ƙasashen yankin Gulf?

Ana nuna matuƙar shakku da damuwa kan yiwuwar rugujewar gwamnatin Iran a waɗannan ƙasashe, saboda ana fargabar hakan zai iya haifar da ɓullar mayaƙan sa-kai masu adawa da juna ko kuma bullowar ƙungiyoyi masu iƙirarin ballewa a cikin kasar.

A cewar wasu majiyoyin da suka zanta da BBC, irin wannan lamari na iya haifar da ruɗani na tsaro, sakamakon cewa ba zai tsaya ga Iran kaɗai ba, zai iya yaɗuwa zuwa ƙasashen yankin Gulf. Bugu da ƙari, suna nuna damuwa cewa ɗora gwamnatin da Amurka da Isra'ila ke marawa baya zai ƙara tasirin Isra'ila a cikin Iran.

Hisham Ghannam, ɗan ƙasar Saudiyya kuma masani a cibiyar Carnegie ta Gabas ta Tsakiya, ya ce gwamnatin Iran na yanzu, duk da "matsaloli da halin da suke ciki" ta kasance wanda lissafinsa da martaninsa ya kasance abin fahimta wanda ya yi nuni da yanayin hasashen da dta ke yi kan al'amuran duniya. Ya yi imanin cewa, ƙasashen yankin Gulf sun fi son yin garambawul ga tsarin mulki a hankali fiye da rugujewarsu ba zato ba tsammani, domin rashi tabbas kan yanayin wadanda za su mamaye madafun iko bayan hamɓarar da gwamnatin da ke mulki.

Mista Ghannam ya yi gargaɗin cewa, duk wani sauyi da aka samu a gwamnatin Iran a halin yanzu, zai iya share fagen ɓullowar sabbin masu tsatsauran ra'ayi daga halin da ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba, yana mai cewa:

"Rushewar Iran zai kasance mafi hatsari fiye da rugujewar gwamnatin Saddam Hussein a Iraki, saboda rikice-rikice na ƙabilanci da addini a Iran da kuma yaɗuwar dakarunƙungiyoyi masu ɗauke da makamai da ke da alaƙa da ita a wasu manyan biranen ƙasashem Larabawa." A cewarsa, irin wannan yanayin zai iya haifar da rikice-rikicen ƙabilanci da za su iya haifar da miliyoyin mutane su rasa matsugunansu, da rikicin jin ƙai, da kuma barazanar tsaro daban-daban.

Ya kuma yi gargadin cewa mayaƙan sa-kai da ke da alaƙa da Iran waɗanda ke Iraki da Lebanon da Yemen da sauran ƙasashe za su iya zama abin da ya kira "ƙungiyoyin ta'addanci" masu zaman kansu idan gwamnatin tsakiya ta ruguje, lamarin da zai ƙara ta'azzara barazanar tsaro a yankin.

Shi kuma Ahmad Shizawi yana ganin cewa faɗuwar gwamnatin Iran a wannan lokaci bai dace da muradun ƙasashen yankin Gulf ba, domin kuwa waɗannan ƙasashe sun damu da ɓullowar gwamnatoci masu tsauraran ra'ayoyi bayan rugujewar gwamnati mai ci a yanzu. A cewarsa, duk wani giɓi na siyasa zai haifar da taɓarɓarewar tsaro da ɓullowar aƙidar ƙyamar wadanda ba Larabawa.

Har ila yau ya ce rugujewar gwamnatin Iran zai haifar da kwararar ƴan gudun hijira zuwa ƙasashen yankin Gulf, da kuma safarar makamai da shigo da su cikin waɗannan ƙasashe, wanda a cewarsa zai haifar da babbar barazana ga tsaro da zaman lafiyar yankin.

Tsakanin ƙawaye da Maƙwabta

A taƙaice dai ƙoƙarin da ƙasashen yankin Gulf suke yi na hana ɓarkewar rikicin soji a ɓangare guda da kuma tabbatar da kasancewar gwamnatin Iran ɗin "duk da la'akari da irin da sukar da ake yi mata" a ɗaya ɓangaren ana iya fahimtar da su a cikin tsarin "taƙaita haɗari"; Hanyar da ta kasance wata siffa ta diflomasiyyar wasu manyan ƙasashen yankin Gulf a shekarun baya-bayan nan.

A kan haka ne manyan ƙasashen yankin tekun Fasha ke ci gaba da dagewa kan ƙarfafa danƙon kawancen da suke da shi da Washington, yayin da suke la'akari da muhimmancin alaƙarsu da Iran "a yanayin da ya ke a yanzu" domin kaucewa duk wata arangama ta kai tsaye da za ta iya jefa yankin cikin wani mummunan yanayi da zai haifar da sakamako mara daɗi.