Me ya sa juyin mulki ke sake dawowa a Afirka?

Juyin mulki abu ne da aka saba gani a ƙasashen Afirka cikin wasu gomman shekaru bayan samun ƴancin kan ƙasashen.

Sai dai bayan an fara sakin jiki da tsarin mulki irin na dimokuraɗiyya sai ga shi a yanzu ana samun ƙaruwar juyin mulkin a irin waɗannan ƙasashe.

Juyin mulkin da ya wakana ƙasar Gabon shi ne na baya-bayan nan, baya ga ƙasar Jamhuriyar Nijar da sojoji suka kifar da gwamnatin da aka zaɓa bisa tsarin dimukuraɗiyya.

A shekarar 2022 kaɗai an samu juyin mulki har sau biyu a Burkina Faso, haka ma an yi koƙarin aiwatar da shi a ƙasashen Guinea Bissau da Gambia da kuma Sao Tome da Principe.

A shekarar 2021 an samu yunƙurin juyin mulki har sau shida a nahiyar Afirka inda aka samu nasarar aiwatar da huɗu daga cikin su.

A bara ma shugaban Tarayyar Afirka Mousa Faki Mahamat ya bayyana damuwa game da "dawowar yadda ake samun sauyin gwamnatoci ba bisa dokokin kundin tsarin mulki ba".

Yaushe ne za a iya cewa juyin mulki ya yi nasara?

Shi dai juyin mulki na nufin matakin sojoji wajen kifar da gwamnati ba bisa tsarin doka ba, ko kuma ta amfani da fararen hula a wata hanya daban - domin kawar da shugabannin da ke kan mulki.

Wani bincike da wasu masana Amurkawa biyu, Jonathan Powell da Clayton Thyne suka gudanar sun gano cewa an samu yunƙurin yin juyin mulki fiye da sau 200 a Afirka tun daga 1950, kuma kimanin rabin waɗannan an samu nasarar aiwatar da su.

A shekarar 2017 sojoji sun hamɓarar da gwamnatin Robert Mugabe inda suka kawo ƙarshen mulkinsa da ya kwashe shekra 37 yana yi a Zimbabwe.

Amma ɗaya daga cikin waɗanda suka kitsa juyin mulkin, Manjo Janar Sibusiso Moyo, ya fito a wata kafar talabijin ta ƙasar yana bayyana cewa ba juyin mulki ne suka yi ba, face sauya gwamnati da sojoji suka yi.

A watan Afirilun 2021 kuma bayan mutuwar shugaba Chadi idriss Déby, sai sojoji suka ɗora ɗansa a matsayin shugaban riƙo, inda ya ci gaba da jagoranar majalisar ƙoli ta sojoji a ƙasar.

Matakin da abokan adawarsa suka kira da "juyin mulkin cikin gida".

A cewar Jonathan Powell "Shugabannin sojin da suka yi juyin mulkin sun sha musanta cewa juyin mulki ne suka yi, wanda suna yin haka ne kawai domin wanke kansu daga zargi."

Ya yawan yadda juyin mulki ke faruwa a Afirka?

A na ci gaba da samun ƙaruwar adadin yadda ake gudanar da juyin mulki a nahiyar Afirka, kusan akan samu ɗaya a duk cikin shekara huɗu, tun daga 1960 zuwa 2000.

Mai binciken ya ce wannan ba wani abin mamaki ba ne, ganin irin yadda ƙasashe da dama ke fuskantar tarzoma tsawon shekaru tun bayan samun ƴancin kansu.

"Ƙasashen Afirka ne da kansu suka bayar da ƙofar a yi musu juyin mulki, sakamakon jefa talakawa cikin talauci da koma bayan tatalin arziki. Muddin ƙasa ta fuskanci juyin mulki sau ɗaya to fa an buɗe ƙofar yin wasu juyin mulkin ke nan a cikinta".

An fara samun raguwa kifar da gwamnatoci tun daga shekarar 2000. Sai daga baya-bayan nan lamarin ya soma zama ruwan dare a nahiyar Afirka.

A shekarar 2020 sau ɗaya ne kawai aka samu juyin mulki a nahiyar, a ƙasar Mali.

Sannan a shekarar 2021 kimanin ƙasashe biyar ne suka fuskanci juyin mulki a nahiyar da suka haɗa da Chadi da Mali da Guinea da Sudan sai nan kusa Jamhuriyar Nijar.

A shekarar 2022 an samu yunƙurin gudanar da juyin mulki har sau biyar, waɗanda biyu daga cikinsu sun faru ne a ƙasar Burkina Faso.

Ndubuisi Christian Ani, malami ne a Jami'ar KwaZulu-Natal, ya ce ƙaruwar turjiya da shugabannin da suka daɗe a kan madafun iko ke fuskanta daga 'yan ƙasa ta bayar da damar dawowar juyin mulki a Afirka.

"Yayin da nuna rashin yarda da irin jagoranci da ake yi wa mutane ke samun goyon bayan jama'a, hakan kan bai wa dakarun sojoji wata silar da za su yi amfani da ita wajen hamɓarar da gwamnati," in ji shi.

Waɗanne ƙasashe aka fi yin juyin mulki a duniya?

Sudan ce sahun gaba da ta fuskanci juyin mulki da yunƙurin hakan har sau 16 kuma kusan shida daga ciki an samu nasarar aiwatar da su.

A shekarar 2019 an kifar da gwamnatin Omar al-Bashir wanda shi ne mafi daɗewa a kan karagar mulki a Sudan bayan ya fuskanci jerin zanga-zangar da aka kwashe watanni ana yi a ƙasar.

Shi kansa tsohon shugaba Omar al-Bashir ya ƙwace iko ne daga wata gwamnati.

A Yammacin Afirka kuwa Burkina Faso ce ta fi fuskantar juyin mulkin da suka yi nasara, inda kusan sau tara sojoji suka samu nasarar ƙwace ƙarfin iko yayin da ɗaya bai yi nasara ba.

Najeriya ma ta yi ƙaurin suna a juyin mulki inda ta fuskanci matsalar har sau takwas tun bayan samun 'yancin kanta a watan Janairun 1966 da kuma wanda tsohon shugaban mulkin sojoji Janar Sani Abacha ya yi a1993.

Hakazalika, tun a 1999 lamarin ya sauya, inda galibin ƙasashen Afirka ke ƙarkashin mulkin dimukuraɗiyya.

Tarihin Burundi ma ba zai kammala ba sai an yi maganar ƙugiyoyin 'yan aware goma sha ɗaya waɗanda rikici tsakanin al'ummar Hutu da Tutsi ya taka rawa wajen kafuwar su.

Saliyo ma ta haɗu da juyin mulki tsakanin 1967 da kuma 1968 da kuma wani a shekarar 1971.

Tsakanin 1992 da 1997 ta fuskanci yunƙurin juyin mulki har sau biyar.

Ƙasar Ghana ta taɓa fuskantar juyin mulki har sau takwas cikin shekara ashirin.

Na farkon an yi shi ne a 1966, lokacin da sojoji suka kawar da shugaban ƙasar, Kwame Nkrumah daga mulki.

Shekara ɗaya bayan faruwar haka kuma, aka samu wasu ƙananan sojoji suka yi yunƙurin aiwatar da wani juyin mulkin, sai dai bai yi nasara ba.

A wani jawabi da ya taɓa yi a shekarar 2021, Babban Sakataren Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya - António Guterres ya ce "A yanzu dai juyin mulki ya sake dawowa" ya ƙara da cewa, "Samuwar rabuwar kai saboda siyasa na daɗa kawo cikas ga dangantaka tsakanin ƙasashen duniya, sannan...alamomin rashin cikakken tsaro na ƙara kunno kai", in ji shi.

Wato dai nahiyar Afirka na cikin tsaka mai wuya sakamakon yawaitar juyin mulki fiye da kowace nahiya a duniya.

Daga cikin juyin mulki 18 da aka yi a duniya tun daga 2017 idan an cire ɗaya da ya faru a ƙasar Myanmar a 2021, to dukkan su a nahiyar Afirka ne.