Hanyoyin kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Ukraine a 2025

"Dole ne na faɗi cewa abubuwan na sauyawa cikin hanzari," in ji shugaban Rasha, Vladimir Putin a lokacin jawabinsa na ƙarshen shekara da ya gabatar ranar 19 ga watan Disamba. "Dakarun da ke bakin fama na ci gaba da matsawa a kowace rana."

A gabashin Ukraine, dakarun Rasha na dannawa cikin yankunan Donbas, suna mamaye ƙauyuka da birane.

Wasu fararen hula na tserewa kafin yaƙin ya kai wurinsu. Wasu kuma kan jira har sai an fara jefo abubuwa masu fashewa kafin su fara tattara kayansu su yi ƙaura ta hanyar amfani da jiragen ƙasa ko motocin safa, zuwa yammaci, inda ya fi kwanciyar hankali.

Rasha na kame wurare cikin sauri, fiye da kowane lokaci tun bayan ƙaddamar da samame a Ukraine cikin watan Fabarairun 2022, duk kuwa da ƙoƙarin da Ukraine ke yi na ƙaddamar da hare-hare waɗanda ta tsara da kyau.

Yayin da yaƙin ke cika shekara uku da farawa, lamarin da aka yi ƙiyasin cewa ya shafi aƙalla mutum miliyan ɗaya, da alama Ukraine na yin rashin nasara.

A can Amurka kuwa, inda Donald Trump -mutumin da ba a iya hasashen abin da zaiyi- wanda kuma babu alamun soyayya tsakaninsa da Ukraine ko shugabanninta- na shirin karbar mulki.

Alamu na nuna an kawo wani mataki na samun sauyi. Shin zai iya yiwuwa shekarar 2025 ce shekarar da wannan mummunar yaƙin zai kawo ƙarshe- idan ma hakan ne mene ƙarshen yaƙin zai yi kama da?

Batun tattaunawa

Alƙawarin Trump na kawo ƙarshen yaƙin cikin sao'i 24 bayan kama aiki kawai taƙama ce da nuna isa, amma kuma hakan na zuwa ne daga mutumin da ga duk alamu haƙurinsa ta ƙare kan yaƙin da kuma goyon bayan da Amurka ke bayarwa wanda ke laƙume kuɗaɗe masu yawa.

''Adadin gawarwakin sojoji masu ƙananan shekaru da ke ƙwance a wurare daban daban abin damuwa ne,'' inji shi.

Sai dai gwamnatin amurka mai jiran gado za ta fuskanci matsaloli biyu, a cewar Micheal Kofman, wani babban ma'aikaci a cibiyar nazarin harkokin ƙasa da ƙasa na Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

'' Na farko, za su gaji yaƙin da ke cikin mummunar yanayi, ba tare da isashen lokaci da za su dai-daita lamarin ba, '' a cewar sa a watan Disamba.

''Abu na biyu, za su gaji yaƙin ba tare da kyakyawar dabarar samun nasara ba.''

Shugaban mai jiran gado ya bayyana kaɗan daga cikin dabarun da zai bi wajen fuskantar yaƙin, a cikin hira da yayi a baya bayan nan.

Ya shaidawa mujallar Time cewa kwata kwata bai yarda da matakan da gwamnatin Biden ta ɗauka a watan Nuwamba ba, wanda ya baiwa Ukraine damar harba makamai masu linzami masu dogon zango da Amurka ta basu cikin Rasha.

'' Kawai muna ƙara faɗaɗa wannan yaƙin ne muna ƙara munana shi, '' inji shi.

A ranar 8 ga watan Disamba, kafar yaɗa labarai ta NBC ta tambayesa ko akwai buƙatar Ukraine ta shiryawa rage kawo musu agaji.

''Yana iya yiwuwa,'' inji shi. ''da yiwuwar hakan.''

Amma kuma ga waɗanda ke fargaba, kamar yadda mafi yawa keyi, kan cewa akwai yiwuwar sabon shugaban Amurka zai yi watsi da Ukraine, Trump ya bayar da wani ɗan tabbaci. '' Ba za ka cimma wata yarjejeniya ba in kayi watsi da ita, a gani na,'' inji shi.

Gaskiyar lamarin ita ce: niyyar Trump ba ta fito fili ba.

A yanzu haka dai, hukumomi a Ukraine sunyi watsi da duk wani magana na matsa musu, ko kuma nuna cewa zuwan Trump na nufin za a yi tattaunawar zaman lafiya.

'' Akwai maganganu dayawa kan tattaunawar zaman lafiya, amma duk hasashe ne, '' inji Mykhailo Podolyak, mashawarcin shugaban ofishin shugaba Zelensky.

'' Babu wani ƙoƙarin yin yarjejeniya da za a soma saboda har yanzu ba a sa dauki ƙwaƙwaran mataki na hukunta Rasha kan laifukan da takeyi a wannnan yaƙin ba.

Dabaru na Zelensky

Idan aka duba duk shakkun da Ukraine ke da shi kan sakamakon yarjejeniyar, a yayin da kuma dakarun Rasha ke kusantowa ta gabashi, alamu sun nuna cewa shugaba Zelensky na fargabar nuna kansa a matsayin wani mutumin da Trump zai yi hulɗa da shi.

Shugaban Ukarine din yayi gaggawa wajen taya Trump murna bayan nasararsa na lashe zaben shugaban Amurka, kuma bai ɓata lokaci ba wajen aika manya jam'iai domin ganawa da tawagar zaɓɓaɓen shugaban ƙasar.

Kuma ta hanyar taimakon shugaban Faransa Emmanuel Macron, Zelensky ya samu ganawa da Trump a lokacin da shugabannin biyu suka kai ziyara Paris.

'' Abin da muke gani a yanzu wata dabara ce mai kyau shugaba Zelensky yayi,'' tsohon ministansa na harkokin ƙasashen waje Dmytro Kuleba ya fada wa majalisar harkokin ƙasashen waje na Amurka a farkon watan Disamba.

A cewar sa, Zelensky ya na ta'' nuna alamun shiryawa haɗuwa da shugaba Trump.''

Duk da wasu ƙananan alamomi na nuna Rasha ma na irin wannan yunƙurin, a bayyane yake gwamnatin Ukraine na ƙoƙarin shan gaban Rasha a tattaunawar.

'' Ganin cewa Trump bai yi cikakken bayani kan abin da zaiyi ba, hukumomin Ukraine na ƙoƙarin bashi wasu dabaru ko shawarwari dai zai nuna a matsayin nasa,'' a cewar Orysia Lutsevych.

'' Sun san yadda za suyi aiki da shi.''

Tsarin samun nasara

Tun kafin zaɓen Amurka, akwai alamun Zelensky na neman hanyoyin da zai bunƙasa buƙatar Ukraine na zama abokiyar hulɗa nan gaba da zaɓaɓɓen shugaban ƙasa kamar Trump.

A cikin ''shirin nasara'' wanda ya ƙaddamar a watan Oktoba, Zelensky ya bayar da shawarar dakarun Ukraine su maye gurbin dakarun Amurka da ke Turai bayan yaƙinta da Rasha ya ƙare. Ya kuma yi tayin yiwuwar zuba jarin haɗin gwiwa domin tatsar albarkatun ƙasa na Ukraine ciki har da Uranium da Graphite da Lithium.

Zelensky yayi gargadin cewa waɗannan muhimman albarkatu, '' ko dai su ƙarfafa Rasha ko kuma Ukraine da sauran ƙasashe.''

Sai dai wasu ɓangarorin daga cikin shirin nasarar na shugaban Ukraine- kamar shiga ƙungiyar Nato- da alamu bai samu karɓuwa ba a wajen ƙawayen Kyiv.

Shigarta ƙungiyar Nato na ta samun tsaiko, kamar yadda yake tun kafin mamayar Rasha.

Ga Ukraine, wannan ne kaɗai hanyar da za su tabbatar da ceto makomar ƙasar a nan gaba daga abokan gabansu Rasha da suka duƙufa wajen cin galaba kansu.

Duk da sun ayyana a watan Yulin da ya gabata cewa Ukraine na kan wani tafarkin da bazasu dawo baya ba kan shiga ƙungiyar Nato, ƙungiyar ƙawancen a rabe take inda Amurka da Jamus har yanzu ba su amince a gayyace su ba.

Shugaba Zelensky ya nuna cewa idan aka yiwa ƙasar baki ɗaya tayin shiga ƙungiyar, cikin iyakokin Ukraine da duniya ta amince da ita, zai iya amincewa da cewa zata shafi, a farko, yankunan da ke ƙarƙashin ikon Kyiv kawai.

Yin hakan, kamar yadda ya shaidawa kafar Sky News a watan Nuwamba, zai iya kawo ƙarshen mataki mai zafi na yaƙin, wanda zai bayar da damar tattaunawar diflomasiyya domin kawo ƙarshen matsalar iyakokin Ukraine.

Amma, a cewar sa, har yanzu ba a yi musu wannan tayin ba.

Rashin ƙwaƙƙwarar matsaya a Kyiv

Idan bata shiga ƙungiyar Nato ba, sai kuma mene? Duba da yiwuwar yin tattaunawar zaman lafiya da Trump zai jagoranta da kuma rashin nasarar da Ukraine keyi a fagen yaƙin, muhawarar da akeyi a faɗin duniya ita ce rashin ƙwaƙwarar matsayin Ukraine.

'' Yanada matuƙar muhimmanci a samu tabbaci mai ƙarfi na doka da za a iya aiki da shi,'' Andriy Yermak, shugaban ofishin shugaba Zelensky ya shaidawa kafar yaɗa labaran Ukraine a ranar 12 ga watan Disamba.

Abuuwan da suka faru a baya a Ukraine, abubuwa ne marasa daɗi. ''Abin takaici, daga abin da ya faru damu, duk tabbacin da muka samu a bayan bai samar da tsaro ba,''

'' Zelensky ya fahimci cewa bazai samu tsagaita wuta ta daɗin rai ba,'' a cewar Orysia Lutsevyc.

'' Dole ne sai ya sadaukar da wani abu domin samun tsagaita wutar. Zai zama babbar matsala idan Zalensky ya amince da tsagaita wuta ba tare da yanada maslahar yadda zai kare Ukraine.''

Kwararru a Birtaniya na cigaba da lalubo hanyoyin da Birtaniya za ta taimaka wajen rage mata wannan nauyin da ke wuyanta.

Shawarwari sun haɗa da aikewa da jam'ian wanzar da zaman lafiya zuwa Ukraine (shawara da tun watan Fabrairu Macron ya bayar), ko kuma shigar dakarun haɗin gwiwa ƙarƙashin jarorancin Birtaniya wanda zai tattaro sojoji daga ƙasashe 8 da kuma Netherlands.

Sai dai Kofman ya na da shakku. '' Tabbacin tsaro da babu goyon bayan Amurka abu ne mai hatsari.''

Haka mahangar ma ta ke a Kyiv.

'' Wani zaɓi za a iya samu kuma? a yau dai babu wani zaɓin,'' inji Mr Podolyak.

Takardu kamar su yarjejeniyar Budapest na 1994 (a kan iyakokin Ukraine) ko kuma yarjejeniyar Minsk na 2014-2015 ( wanda ya nemi kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Donbas) ba su da amfani, inji shi.

'' Dole ne Rasha ta fahimci cewa a lokacin da suka fara kai hari, za a kawo musu wasu hare haren na martani,'' inji shi.

Birtaniya da Biden da kuma rawar da ƙasashen yamma ke takawa.

Kasancewar babu wata yarjejeniya kan makomar Ukraine a nan gaba, ƙawayenta na yin bakin ƙoƙarinsu wajen ganin sun haɓɓaka dakarunta na tsaro.

Tun a farkon watan Disamba, babban sakatare ƙungiyar Nato, Mark Rutte, ya ce ana duba 'komai' ciki har da samar da ƙarin na'urorin tsaron sararin samaniya, domin tsare kayyayakin samar da makamashin ƙasar daga wasu sabbin hare haren makamai masu linzami da jirage maras matuƙa na Rasha.

A yayin da Ukraine ke cigaba da fuskantar ƙarancin jam'iai, sakataren tsaron Birtaniya John Healey ya ce akwai yiwuwar gwamnati zata aike da dakarun Birtaniya zuwa Ukraine su taimaka musu wajen bayar da horo.

A nata ɓangaren, da alamu gwamnatin Biden mai barin gado ta duƙufa wajen kai iya taimakon soji da aka amince zata iya kaiwa zuwa Ukraine kafin barin mulki, duk da dai rahotanni na nuna ba lallai ta samu isashen lokacin aika duka ba.

A ranar 21 ga watan Disamba, rahotanni sun bayyana cewa Trump zai ciagaba da tallafawa Ukraine da kayyaykin soji, amma zai buƙaci ƙasashen NATO su kara kudaɗen da suke kashewa wajen samar da tsaro.

Ƙawayen Kyiv sun kuma cigaba da ƙara takunkumai kan Moscow, su na fatan cewa tattalin arziƙin Rasha na yaƙi, wanda ya nuna tsananin juriya, zai ruguje.

Bayan sanya musu takunkumai da dama (15 daga tarayyar Turai), a yanzu hukumomin gwamnati sun fara takatsatsan wajen yin hasashen tasirinsu.

Sai dai alamun bayan nan na ƙara tayar da hankalin gwamnatin Rasha. A yayin da kuɗin ruwa ya kai kashi 23 cikin 100, hauhawar farashin kayyayaki ke neman haura kashi 9 cikin 100, darajar rouble na faduwa, da kuma hasashen da akeyi na cewa cigaba zai ja baya a 2025, takurar da tattalin arziƙin Rasha ke fuskanta na ƙara tsanani.

Putin na nuna ƙarfin hali. '' Takunkuman na tasiri,'' ya faɗi hakan a lokacin jawabinsa ga manema labarai na ƙarshen shekara, ''Sai dai ba su da wani muhimmanci.''

Idan aka haɗa wannan da kuma rashin nasarar da Rasha keyi a yaƙin wanda hukumomi daga ƙasashen yamma ke hasashen Moscow ana rasa aƙalla sojoji 1500 a kullun, ko dai a kashe su ko a raunata su, asarar da yaƙin ke janyowa har yanzu bai tunzura Putin hawa teburin tattaunawa ba.

Amma yankuna nawa Ukraine zata rasa- kuma ƙarin mutane nawa za a kashe- a lokacin da aka kai wannan matakin?