Ko Ukraine na da ƙarfin ci gaba da yaƙi da Rasha?
- Marubuci, Anastasiya Zanuda
- Sanya sunan wanda ya rubuta labari, BBC News Ukraine
- Lokacin karatu: Minti 5
Kimanin shekara uku bayan samamen da Rasha ta ƙaddamar a Ukraine, masana da dama na ganin cewa ko da sojoji za su yi nasarar a fagen daga, tattalin arziƙi ne zai fi tasiri. Ko Ukraine na da ƙrfin da za ta ci gaba da wannan yaƙi?
A baya-bayan nan shugaba Zelensky ya jaddada cewa Ukraine "na son a kawo ƙarshen yaƙin cikin sauri da adalci." To amma yayin da ƙawarta mai muhimmanci, Amurka ke nuna alamun dakatar da taimakon da take bai wa Ukraine da rage tallafin da take ba ta a nan, ko Ukraine, wadda yaƙi ya jigata tattalin arziƙinta za ta iya sake kwashe wata shekarar guda cikin yaƙi.
Yadda Ukraine ta kashe kuɗi kan yaƙi
Duk da cewa Ukraine na da girma idan aka kwatanta ta da wasu ƙasashen nahiyar Turai, ƙarama ce idan aka kwatanta ta da Rasha a yawan al'umma da tattalin arziƙi.
Kafin samame, an yi ƙiyasin cewa tattalin arziƙin Rasha ya nunka na Ukraine sau 10.
Yaƙin ya jefa tattalin arziƙin Rasha cikin mummuman yanayi fiye da kowane lokaci, hatta halin da tattalin arziƙin ya shiga a shekarun 1990, bayan rushewar Tarayyar Soviet, lokacin da tattalin arziƙin ya faɗa cikin ƙangi sannan aka samu tashin farashin kaya.
Tun shekarar ta 2022, gwamnatin ta kashi mafi yawa na kuɗaɗenta ne a fannin tsaro, kuma duk da haka tana ƙoƙarin nemo kuɗin da za ta kashe a wasu ɓangarori masu muhimmanci - kamar ɓangaren aikin gwamnati, da kiwon lafiya, da ilimi - wanda hakan ya zama babban ƙalubale kuma ya haifar da giɓi a kasafin kuɗi.
Asalin hoton, Getty Images
A watannin farko-farko na samamen Rasha, Ukraine ta yi ƙoƙarin ganin ta cike giɓin kuɗi ta hanyar buga takardun kuɗi da sayar da takardun bashi.
Ya zuwa ƙarshen 2022, tattalin arziƙin Ukraine ya tsuke da kimanin kashi ɗaya cikin uku yayin da farashin kayan masarufi ya tashi da kimanin sama da kashi 25%.
Tattalin arziƙin ya ɗan samu sassauci sanadiyyar tallafin da ƙasar ta samu daga wasu ƙasashen duniya.
Tun farko, Amurka ce ta zamo kan gaba wajen ba ta gudumawa da tallafin kayan yaƙi da na tallafa wa al'umma da kuɗi da kuma ƙoƙarin tallafa wa tattalin arziƙi.
To amma daga baya, ƙasashen Turai ne suka shige gaba wajen tallafa wa Ukraine da kuɗaɗe.
"A halin yanzu kashi 80% na kuɗin da ake kashewa a yaƙin na fitowa ne daga ƙasashen Turai da kuma Ukraine ita kanta, sai kuma kashi 20% daga Amurka", kamar yadda shugaba Zelensky ya faɗa wa manema labarai a lokacin da ya kama hanyar zuwa birnin Munich domin taro kan tsaro a ranar 14 ga watan Fabarairu.
Tallafin kuɗin da Ukraine ke samu
- A shekarar 2022 zuwa 2024, Ukraine ta samu tallafin kuɗin daga ƙasashen waje da ya kai dala biliyan 115, a matsayin bashi ko kuma tallafi.
- Wannan ya ƙunshi dala biliyan 44.8 daga Tarayyar Turai, dala biliyan 31.2 daga Amurka da kuma dala biliyan 12.4 daga Hukumar lamuni ta duniya.
- Daga cikin dala biliyan 60.7 yawanci sun tafi ne a ɓangaren makamai, waɗanda Amurka ta yi alƙawari a 2024, dala biliyan 7.9 bashi ne da aka bayar domin tallafa wa tattalin arziƙin Ukraine.
- A 2024, ƙasashen G7 masu ƙarfin tattalin arziƙi a duniya sun samar da kimanin dala biliyan 50 a matsayin bashin samar da ci gaba, wanda za a biya daga kuɗaɗen kadarorin Rasha da aka ƙwace.
- Ukraine na sa ran samun kuɗi dala biliyan 38.4 daga ƙawayenta a 2025.
Ta yaya tallafin ke taimakawa?
Sanadiyyar tallafin da ƙasashen waje ke bayarwa bayan nutsewar da tattalin arziƙin Ukraine ya yi a 2022, tattalin arziƙin ya bunƙasa da kashi 5.3% a 2023, da kuma kashi 3.6% a 2024, kamar yadda bayanai suka tabbatar.
Tallafin ƙasashen waje ya bai wa Ukraine damar sake haɓɓako da asusun ajiyarta na ƙetare, da daidaita kuɗinta da kuma cike giɓin kasafin kuɗi.
Asalin hoton, Getgty Images
Dmytro Boyarchuk, shugaban cibiyar nazari kan rayuwa da tattalin arziƙi ta Ukraine ya ce "Ukraine na buƙatar kimanin dala biliyan 40 a kowace shekara domin ta samu damar ci gaba da yaƙi."
"Idan tallafin da ake bayarwa ya dakata to abin ba zai yi kyau ba."
Halin da ake ciki a cikin gida a Ukraine
Ba kuɗi ne kawai matsalar Ukraine ba - ƙasar na kuma matsalar makamashi da ma'aikata.
Ana da yaƙinin cewa Rasha ta lallata ko kuma karɓe iko da rabin cibiyoyin samar da lantarki na Ukraine.
Tsakanin watan Oktoban 2022 da Satumban 2024, cibiyoyin makamashi na Ukraine sun fuskanci hare-hare kimanin 1,000 daga Rasha, in ji ma'aikatar makamashi ta Ukraine.
Asalin hoton, Getty Images
Wata babbar matsala da ke addabar Ukraine ita ce rashin isassun ma'aikata, wanda ake ganin ya ragu da kashi ɗaya cikin uku.
Waɗanda suka rasa rayukansu sanadiyyar yaƙi, da hijira da kuma tura matasa aikin soja na daga cikin abubuwan da suka haifar da hakan.
Kimanin mutum 880,000 ne ke fafatawa ƙarƙashin dakarun Ukraine, in ji Volodymyr Zelensky.
Haka nan kuma samamen Rasha ya tilasta wa kusan kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na mutanen Ukraine barin muhallansu. Alƙaluma daga Majalisar Dinkin Duniya sun nuna cewa kusan mutanen Ukraine miliyan bakwai ne ke rayuwa a ƙasashen waje.
Har zuwa yaushe ne tattalin arziƙin Ukraine zai jure wa yaƙi?
Hukumar Lamuni ta Duniya (IMF) a baya-bayan nan ta bayyana cewa tattalin arziƙin Ukraine "ya jure" duk da ƙalubalen da ya fuskanta.
Duk da cewa ƙasar ta dogara sosai kan tallafin ƙasashen waje, Ukraine ta yi ƙoƙarin lalubo wasu hanyoyin magance matsalolin da take fuskanta da kanta.
Lokacin da Rasha ta fice daga yarjejeniyar fitar da hatsi ta tekun Black Sea, wata yarjejeniya da MDD da Turkiyya suka jagoranta ya taimaka wa Ukraine wajen ci gaba da fitar da hatsi ta wasu hanyoyin ta hanyar kauce wa hare-hare daga Rasha.
Wannan ya sanya ƙasar ta riƙa fitar da kaya kamar yadda take yi gabanin yaƙin har ma ta ƙara wasu kayan da take fitarwa.
A 2024 kayan da Ukraine ke fitarwa ya tashi da kimanin kashi 15% wanda ya samar wa ƙasar kuɗin shiga sama da dala biliyan 41.6 - kwatankwacin tallafin da ta samu daga ƙetare a shekarar.
