Ukraine - Russia: Ibintu bitanu bizogira ingaruka ku ntambara mu 2024

Inyuma y’imyaka hafi ibiri ivugwa cane, intambara yo muri Ukraine yatangujwe n’Uburusiya izobandanya ivugwa cane no mu 2024. Ariko iboneka ko ishobora kugenda ukundi.

Ng’ibi ibintu bitanu bizogira ingaruka kuri ino ntambara mu mwaka buca utangura wa 2024.

Amafaranga

Ubutwari Ukraine yerekanye mu guhangana n’Uburusiya igihe intambara itangura muri Ruhuhuma (2) 2022 bwatangaje benshi mbere buca butuma amakungu atangura kuyiha ibirwanisho.

Mu 2024 ibi bisa n’ibizohinduka, mu gihe imice ibiri y’imfashanyo yahagaze.

Muri Amerika, imfashanyo igenewe Ukraine gushika ubu ntirashobora kwemezwa n’inama nshingamateka na nkenguzamateka bivuye ku mpari ziri hagati y’Abarepubulika n’aba-Democrats ku bijanye n’ibindi bisabwa gukorwa.

Iyi mfashanyo ya gisirikare ifise agaciro k’imiriyaridi 61 z’amadorari y’Abanyamerika gushika ubu itaremezwa, n’ubu ntishobora kwigwako gushika abashingamateka n’abakenguzamateka bavuye mu karuhuko kabo mu kwa mbere buca gutangura. Vyari ngombwa ko bagenda bemeje iyi mfashanyo, ariko vyarananiranye.

Mu muryango w’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya (UE/EU), imfashanyo y’amafaranga agera ku miriyaridi 50 z’ama-euro (imiriyaridi 55 z’amadorari y’Abanyamerika) na yo nyene vyaranse ko irekurwa kubera impari hagati y’igihugu kimwe ca UE/EU n’umuryango wose, iki naco kikaba ari Hongrie/Hungary. Hongrie ishigikiye Uburusiya, iki kikaba kiyitandukanije n’ibindi bihugu vy’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya, kandi ikaba ishaka ko imfashanyo igenewe Ukraine ihagarikwa yose.

Ibirwanisho

Ugukwega amaguru mu gutanga imfashanyo mvamakungu kuriko gutuma Ukraine idashobora guha igisirikare cayo ibirwanisho bikwiye, ibi bigatera Ukraine umwikomo, mu gihe Uburusiya bwobwo bubandanya buhagarara neza.

Mu kiganiro n’abanyamakuru kirangiza umwaka, Perezida Vladimir Putin w’Uburusiya yavuze ko igisirikare c’igihugu ciwe kigenda gikomera umusi ku musi, mu gihe ico yita “ivya gusa” Ukraine ihabwa n’Uburengero “vuba birangira”.

Mu kiganiro ciwe n’abanyamakuru kirangiza umwaka, Perezida Volodymyr Zelensky yaremeye ko ibintu bimeze nabi ariko ko ikibazo c’imfashanyo ya gisirikare vuba kizotorerwa umuti kandi ko Ukraine izoshobora kwongereza urugero rwa za ndege zitagira abadereva (drone) ihingura, indege zabonetse ko zifise ikibanza kidasanzwe muri ino ntambara.

Muri Munyonyo (11), Ubumwe bwa Bulaya bwavuze ko budashobora gushika ku ntego bwari bwihaye yo guha Ukraine ibisasu vya muzinga vya 155mm gushika mu kwa gatatu 2024.

Perezida Zelensky avuga ko kimwe mu bituma igitero ca Ukraine co kwikura umwansi kw’izosi kitashoboye gutangura hakiri kare bwari ubukene bw’ibirwanisho.

Mu kiganiro aherutse kugirana na BBC, umukuru w’igisirikare yavuze ko amasasu bafise bayakoresha binengesera.

Ubukene bw’amasasu buzosigura ko ingabo za Ukraine bizoba ngombwa ko ziheba ibirindiro bimwe bimwe zigaheba n’ubutaka bundi. Muri iki gihe, Uburusiya bugenzura 17% y’ubutaka bwa Ukraine.

Ukraine ivuga ko ino ntambara imaze kuyitwara imiriyaridi 150 z’amadorari y’Abanyamerika. Mu 2024, itegekanya gukoresha imiriyaridi 43.2 z’amadorari y’abanyamerika mu gisirikare. Ni mu gihe Uburusiya bwobwo butegekanya gukoresha imiriyaridi 112 z’amadorari mu gisirikare, urugero rutari bwigere rubaho.

Ingabo

Impande zompi zizogira ingorane yo kubura abasirikare bakwiye.

Imbere ya Ruhuhuma 2022, Ukraine yari ifise abanyagihugu bababa imiriyoni 44.

Abababa imiriyoni zitandatu barahunze igihugu n’aho benshi bashobora kuba barahungutse. Ibihumbi amajana n’amajana nabo bahungiye hagati mu gihugu inyuma y’aho Uburusiya bwigaruriye uturere tumwe tumwe hamwe n’ibitero vy’urutavanako. Abasivire baharurwa mu bihumbi baramaze kwicwa.

Kwinjiza no kwigisha izindi ngabo kizoba igikorwa kitoroshe. Mu mategeko y’igihugu kiri mu ntambara, Ukraine yarabujije abagabo bari hagati y’imyaka 18 na 60 kuva mu gihugu. Umushikiranganji wo kwivuna abansi wa Ukraine Rustem Umerov aherutse kuvuga ko igihugu ciwe gishobora kuzosaba abanya-Ukraine baba hanze gutahuka kugira binjizwe mu gisirikare. Ni mu gihe abagabo b’abanya-Ukraine baharurwa mu bihumbi amajana bazwi ko baba hanze y’igihugu. Estonia yaramaze gutangaza ko izofasha Ukraine kwegeranya abanya-Ukraine bashoboye kwinjira mu gisirikare basanzwe baba muri Estonia.

Mu gihe Uburusiya bufise igisirikare kinini n’abanyagihugu benshi baharurwa mu miriyoni 144, bumaze gutakaza abasirikare batari bake muri ino myaka ibiri. Abahinga ba gisirikare hamwe n’abasirikare bo nyene baravuga ko ari intambara ihitana abatari bake.

Benshi mu basirikare karuhariwe barishwe, harimwo nk’ingabo zidasanzwe zirwanira mu kirere n’abadereva b’indege, mu gihe inyigisho zabo zitwara uburyo bwinshi kandi zigasaba igihe kirekire.

Abarusiya bagera ku muriyoni bazwi ko bahunze igihugu inyuma y’igitero c’Uburusiya kuri Ukraine n’igihe reta y’Uburusiya itangarije ko yashaka kwinjiza izindi ngabo. Abategetsi b’Uburusiya baciye bikora ku mpfungwa hamwe n’abimukira badafise ibibaranga kugira ngo banagure igisirikare c’igihugu.

Impande zompi ntizishira ahabona ivyo zimaze gutakaza mu gisirikare ariko ku ruhande rwa Ukraine hibazwa ko abamaze gupfa baharurwa mu bihumbi mirongo.

Ku ruhande rw’Uburusiya, igisata ca BBC gikoresha ururimi rw’ikirusiya cashoboye gutegura urutonde rw’abasirikare bemejwe ko bishwe, aho gushika ubu baharurwa mu bihumbi birenga 40.000.

Igendereza rya Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika riherutse gushira ahabona amakuru avuga ko Uburusiya bumaze gutakaza abasirikare bashobora kuba bashika ku 315.000, bishwe canke bakomeretse.

Ukurambirwa na Ukraine

Igiteye ubwoba Kyiv (umugwa mukuru wa Ukraine) cane ni icitwa "ukurambirwa na Ukraine" – ukugabanuka kw’impuhwe n'imfashanyo itangwa n'abanyagihugu bo mu bihugu vy’incuti bisanzwe biyifashe mu mugongo.

Amatora aheruka mu Buholande na Slovakia yaramaze gutuma imfashanyo igabanuka. Slovakia yarahagaritse imfashanyo nini yari igenewe Ukraine, mu gihe Ubuholande bushobora kutayirungikira indege zabwo z’intambara zo mu bwoko bwa F-16 bwayemereye kuva kera.

Muri Amerika, mu gihe amatora ategekanijwe mu 2024, ibintu bishobora guhinduka cane muri poritike ya Amerika kuri Ukraine n’Uburusiya ari nka hamwe Donald Trump yosubira ku butegetsi.

Ibiharuro ngereranyo muri Amerika vyerekana ko abemera ko Washington iriko irafasha Ukraine ku rugero runini cane biyongereye kuva kuri 21% gushika kuri 41%.

Hejuru y’ibi, mu muryango w’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya, mu bihugu umunani kuri 27, abanyagihugu babandanya kutabona neza imfashanyo ihabwa Ukraine.

Ukraine n’Uburusiya, buri ruhande ruzobandanya rurondera kugira ijambo mu bihugu vyo mu gice c’ubumanuko bw’isi mu mwaka mushasha buca utangura. Kuva muri kahise, ibihugu vyinshi vyo mu buseruko bwo hagati, Amerika y’Ubumanuko na Afrika, vyamye ari incuti z’Uburusiya mu kutabona ryiza Amerika. Kuva ino ntambara yadutse, Uburusiya bwagerageje gutsimbataza ubucuti bwabwo, mu gihe Ukraine nayo yihatiye kurondera kugira ijambo muri ivyo bihugu.

Mu mezi 12 aheze, umushikiranganji w’Uburusiya ajejwe imigenderanire Sergei Lavrov yagiye muri Afrika incuro zine, aho yagendeye ibihugu 14. Umushikiranganji wa Ukraine ajejwe imigenderanire na we Dmytro Kuleba yagendeye ibihugu icenda mu ngendo zibiri yagize muri Afrika muri ico gihe nyene.

Ukraine izogerageza guhangana n’Uburusiya mu kurondera ubwiganze muri Afrika, aho Uburusiya busanzwe bukorera cane, mu bihugu bimwe bimwe naho wa muhari w’abacangero b’Abarusiya, Wagner, ukaba usanzwe ukorerayo cane, ibi bigatsimbataza ikibanza Uburusiya bufise kuri uno mugabane.

Impera ya vyose

"None ino ntambara izohera gute?" iki ni ikibazo abanyaporitike benshi hamwe n’abahinga bagerageza kwishura.

Ukraine ivuga ko ikintu conyene kizorangiza ino ntambara ari uko uturere twose twigaruriwe n’Uburusiya tubohozwa hanyuma imbibe zizwi ku rwego mpuzamakungu zigasubira kwubahirizwa.

Igabisha ko umwumvikano n’Uburusiya uzotuma haba ingendo yo kwigarurira utundi turere, atari ku Burusiya gusa, ariko kandi no mu bindi bice vy’isi.

Uburusiya buvuga ko buri mu ntambara nini ibuhuza n’Uburengero kandi yariyemeje kubandanya intambara.

Mu gihe bisa n’ibigaragara ko itariko irahera mu 2024, ino ntambara izobandanya, buri ruhande rutsimbataje ibirindiro vyarwo, Ukraine ibandanye yicirwa abanyagihugu kandi buri musi bame bari mu kaga ko gutikizwa, Uburusiya nabwo bubandanye butaramurwa ubutunzi bwabwo nabwo bubandanye bugira ibibazo.

Mu gihe intambara ya Gaza igiteye ibibazo hakaba hari n’igihamana kibi ko no mu tundi turere ibintu bishobora kugenda bimera nabi, iyi ntambara ntizoba ikibazo rudende kizoraza ishinga ibindi bihugu, nubwo yagize ingaruka zikomeye cane kuri poritike mpuzamakungu no ku bukungu bw’isi mu 2022.