Trump v Harris: Turamenya uwatsinze ryari?

Abanyamerika uyu munsi tariki 05 Ugushyingo baratora perezida wa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.

Ibyavuye muri aya matora rimwe na rimwe byagiye bitangazwa nyuma y’amasaha ibiro by’amatora bifunzwe, ariko uyu mwaka uko abakandida bombi begeranye gushobora gusobanura gutegereza kurushaho.

Ibiva mu matora y’uyu mwaka byitezwe ryari?

Mu matora amwe n’amwe uwatsinze yamenyekanaga mu ijoro ry’uwo munsi w’itora, cyangwa mu gitondo kare ku munsi ukurikiyeho.

Kuri iyi nshuro kuba abakandida bombi begeranye cyane muri leta nyinshi bishobora gutuma ibitangazamakuru bitegereza igihe kinini mbere yo kuvuga ushobora kuba yatsinze.

Umudemokarate Kamala Harris, visi perezida uriho ubu, n’umurepubulikani Donald Trump, wahoze ari perezida, bamaze ibyumweru baryana isataburenge.

Gutsinda gutoya gushobora gutuma basubiramo kubara amajwi. Muri leta idafite uruhande ruzwi itora ya Pennsylvania, urugero, kongera kubara amajwi bishobora kuba mu gihe ikinyuranyo mu ijanisha atari kinini hagati y’uwatsinze n’uwatsinzwe. Mu 2020, ikinyuranyo cyari hejuru gato ya 1.1%.

Kwiyambaza inkiko na byo birashoboka. Bikaba byatinza kwemeza bya burundu uwatsinze.

Ibindi bishobora kubitinza birimo nk’akajagari mu matora, by’umwihariko ku biro by’amatora.

Ku rundi ruhande, kubara amatora hamwe na hamwe byagiye byihuta, nko muri leta y’ingenzi ya Michigan. Ibishobora gutuma ibintu bisobanuka kare.

Amatora yabanje ibyahavuyemo byatangajwe ryari?

Amatora ya 2020 yabaye ku wa kabiri tariki 03 Ugushyingo. Ariko, za televiziyo muri Amerika zatangaje ko Joe Biden ari we watsinze ku wa gatandatu tariki 07 Ugushyingo, nyuma y’uko ibyavuye mu matora muri Pennsylvania bijemo umucyo.

Mu yandi matora ya vuba, abatora bagiye bamenya uwatsinze vuba.

Mu 2016, ubwo Trump yatsindaga, yatangajwe ko yatsinze mbere ya saa cyenda z’igicuku ku isaha yo mu burasirazuba bwa Amerika (hari saa 08:00 GMT) ku munsi wakurikiye amatora.

Mu 2012, ubwo Barack Obama yatsindiraga manda ya kabiri, intsinzi ye yatangajwe mbere ya saa sita z’ijoro kuri uwo munsi w’itora.

Gusa amatora yo mu 2000 hagati ya George W Bush and Al Gore yo yabayemo umwihariko.

Aya matora yabaye tariki 07 Ugushyingo, ariko impande zombi ziyambaje inkiko kuko ibyayavuyemo muri leta ya Florida byari byegeranye cyane, uwatsinze yaje kwemezwa tariki 12 Ukuboza (12). Urukiko rw’Ikirenga rwahagaritse ibyo gukomeza gusubiramo kubara amajwi. Byari byakomeje gushyira imbere George Bush rwemeza ko ari we ujya muri White House.

Ni izihe leta z’ingenzi zo kwitegereza mu 2024?

Muri Amerika, ibiro by’itora bya mbere birafunga uyu munsi saa 18:00 (saa kumi n'ebyiri z'umugoroba) ku isaha y’uburasirazuba bw’Amerika (biraba ari 23:00 GMT, na saa saba z'ijoro - 01:00 - ku wa gatatu i Gitega na Kigali) naho ibiro bya nyuma birafunga ari saa saba z'ijoro 01:00 i New York na Washington DC - biraba ari ku wa gatatu saa 08:00 i Kigali na Gitega.

Gusa aya matora byitezwe ko ibiyavamo bishingira kuri leta zirindwi zizwi nka ‘swing states’. Izo ni Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania na Wisconsin.

Muri Amerika, ibiro by’itora bifunga ku masaha atandukanye mu duce dutandukanye. Amategeko yihariye kuri leta zimwe na zimwe ashobora gutuma kubarura amajwi bitinda, mu gihe mu zindi bishobora kwihuta.

Ikindi, kubara amajwi y’abatoye bakoresheje iposita, n’amajwi y’abasirikare n’Abanyamerika bari hanze y’igihugu, biri mu majwi asanzwe abarurwa nyuma.

Georgia – Amatora muri iyi leta arangira saa 19:00 ku isaha y’iburasirazuba (00:00 GMT). Abatoye mbere bakoresheje iposita amajwi yabo ni yo abarwa mbere y’amajwi y’abaje ku biro by’itora. Hano byitezwe ko 75% by’amajwi abarurwa mu masaha abiri ya mbere, naho ibyayavuyemo byose bikaboneka nyuma mu ijoro.

North Carolina – Ibiro by’amatora hano bifunga iminota 30 nyuma ya Georgia. Ibyavuye mu matora muri North Carolina byitezwe gutangazwa mbere y’uko ijoro rirangira, gusa hashobora kuba ingorane ahantu hibasiwe n’imiyaga ikomeye muri Nzeri (9).

Pennsylvania – Gutora birangira 20:00 ku isaha y’iburasirazuba bwa Amerika (01:00 GMT) muri iyi leta y’ingenzi kurusha izindi muri izi bita ‘swing states’. Kimwe na Wisconsin, Pennsylvania ntabwo yemera kubara amajwi mbere y’umunsi ukurikiyeho, ibituma ibyayavuyemo hano bitinda. Inzobere zemera ko bifata nibura amasaha 24 mbere y’uko amajwi yose abarurwa kugira ngo uwatsinze hano agaragare.

Michigan – Gutora birarangira saa 21:00 ku isaha y’iburasirazuba (02:00 GMT). Michigan yo yemerera ababishinzwe gutangira kubara amajwi icyumweru kimwe mbere y’umunsi nyirizina w’itora, ariko ntibemererwa kuyatangaza mbere y’uko itora rifunga uyu munsi. Ukuriye itora muri Michigan yavuze ko ibyayavuyemo bigomba kwitegwa “umunsi urangiye” ku wa gatatu.

Wisconsin – Ibyayavuyemo muri ‘counties’ ntoya z’iyi leta bitangazwa nyuma gato y’uko ibiro by’itora bifunze saa 21:00 ku isaha y’iburasirazuba bwa Amerika. Ariko bifata igihe kugira ngo abatuye mu mijyi minini bajye gutora ibituma inzobere zivuga ko ibyayavuyemo muri iyi leta bimenyekana nibura ku wa gatatu.

Arizona – Ibyayavuyemo by’ibanze bishobora kuboneka saa 22:00 ku isaha y’iburasirazuba (03:00 GMT), gusa, ntibiba bitanga ishusho yuzuye. Akarere kanini k’iyi leta kavuga ko ibyavuye mu itora byakwitegwa mu gitondo kare ku wa gatatu. Hejuru y’ibyo, abatoye bakoresheje iposita ku munsi w’itora amajwi yabo ashobora gufata iminsi 13 ngo abarurwe nk’uko abategetsi baho babivugaho.

Nevada – Amajwi hano na ho bishobora gufata iminsi kuyabarura kuko iyi leta yemera ko abakoresheje iposita batora kugeza uyu munsi amajwi yabo ashobora kubarurwa kugeza tariki 09 Ugushyingo.

Kubara amajwi bikorwa gute?

Habanza kubarurwa amajwi y’abatoreye ku biro by’itora hagakurikiraho ay’abatoye bakoresheje iposita - aba bashobora no gutora mbere y’umunsi nyirizina wa none - hanyuma ay’abasirikare bari hanze ya Amerika.

Mu kubarura amajwi hakoreshwa uburyo bw’ikoranabuhanga. Gusa hari ubwo biba ngombwa kubara mu buryo busanzwe mu gusubiramo neza amajwi.

Buri leta iba ifite amategeko abigenga, agena abemerewe kubara amajwi, aho rubanda rushaka kubigenzura ruba ruri, aho indorerezi ziba ziri, cyangwa niba zishobora kwitabira aho amajwi abarirwa.

Bigenda bite iyo ibyayavuyemo bijuririwe?

Iyo buri jwi ryamaze kubarurwa, igikorwa kizwi nka ‘electoral college’ nibwo gitangira.

Buri leta igira umubare w’amajwi y’abagize ‘electoral college’ umukandida ashobora gutsindira, ni mu gutsindira aya majwi – si amajwi ya gusa rubanda – bigeza ku ntsinzi ya perezida.

Muri rusange, za leta ziha amajwi yose ya ‘electoral college’ uwatsindiye amajwi ya rubanda kandi ibi byemezwa nyuma y’inama ziba tariki 17 Ukuboza(12).

Inteko Ishingamategeko nshya ya Amerika iterana tariki 06 Mutarama(1) ikabara amajwi ya ‘electoral college’ maze ikemeza perezida mushya.

Nyuma y’amatora ya 2020, Trump yanze kwemera ibyayavuyemo ahamagarira abamushyigikiye kwigaragamya ku ngoro y’inteko ishingamategeko aho yari igiye guterana ngo yemeze intsinzi ya Biden.

Trump yasabye uwari visi perezida we, Mike Pence, kwanga ibyavuye mu matora, ariko Pence aranga.

Yewe na nyuma y’imyigaragambyo abagize inteko bongeye guterana, abarepubulikani 147 batoye banga kwemeza intsinzi ya Biden.

N’ubu byitezwe ko hashobora kuba ibikorwa byo kwanga ibyavuye mu matora y’uyu mwaka.

Trump n’uwo biyamamazanya JD Vance, n’abakuriye Abarepubulikani mu nteko ishingamategeko, inshuro nyinshi banze kwemeza ko bazemera ibyavuye mu matora mu gihe Trump yatsindwa.

Perezida mushya azarahira ryari?

Perezida watowe azatangira imirimo ye nyuma yo kurahira tariki 20 Mutarama (1) 2025 mu mbuga iri imbere y’inteko ishingamategeko i Washington DC.

Uzaba ari umuhango wa 60 wo kurahira kwa perezida mu mateka ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.

Muri uyu muhango, perezida mushya arahirira kubahiriza Itegekoshinga, maze akavuga ijambo yateguye uwo munsi.