Iran yaba izihora nyuma yaho Israel yiciye umujenerali mukuru wayo?

Iran yijeje ko izihora bikomeye ku gitero cy’indege cyagabwe ku nzu iyihagarariye ku murwa mukuru wa Syria, Damascus, kuwa mbere.

Abantu 13 nibo bishwe, harimo 7 bari mw’itsinda kabuhariwe ry’ingabo z’igihugu ( IRGC: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ) na 6 bafite ubwenegihugu bwo muri Syria, nkuko byatangajwe n’uhagarariye Iran i Damascus.

Muri abo bishwe harimo Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, umuntu ukomeye mu ngabo kabuhariwe za Iran bita Quds, ishami rikorera hanze rya IRGC.

Israel ntacyo irabivugaho ariko Iran na Syria byavuze ko ariyo yagabye icyo gitero.

Umwarimu wigisha imibano mpuzamahanga muri Kaminuza yo mu Bwongereza, London School of Economics, Fawaz Gerges, yagize ati: “Iki ntabwo ari igitero ku gihugu cya Iran gusa, ahubwo ni no k’ubuyobozi Bukuru bw’ingabo kabuhariwe z’icyo gihugu za Quds, kandi ivuze ikintu gikomeye ku ngabo za Quds, zisanzwe zihuza, zikanaha intwaro n’uburyo bw’ikoranabuhanga umutwe wa Hezbollah wo muri Liban hamwe n’igihugu cya Syria.”

Iki gitero cyakuriye ibinegu byuzuyemo uburakari mu bayobozi bakuru bari muri leta ya Iran, birimo no gushaka kwihora kuri Israel. Umuyobozi w’ikirenga wa Iran, Ali Khamenei yatanze gasopo ati: “Tuzatuma bicuza impamvu bakoze ubu bwicanyi, maze natwe dukore nk’ibyo bakoze.”

Umukuru w’igihugu Ebrahim Raisi yise icyo gitero: “Igikorwa kitagira ubumuntu, cyo gushyamirana, gikwiriye guteshwa agaciro….ntigishobora kwijyana gutyo”.

Kuri telephone, umushikiranganji w’imibano n’amahanga wa Iran, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, yabwiye mugenzi we wa Syria ko kiriya gitero gihutaje amasezerano yose n’inshingano zose mpuzamahanga.

Yatunze agatoki mu buryo butaziguye igihugu cya Israel – naho ku rubuga rw’ubushikiranganji bw’imibano n’amahanga bwa Iran, Amir-Abdollahian yavuze ko umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu “yataye umutwe neza neza”.

Ayo magambo yongereye ubwoba ubushyamirane buri hagati ya Israel n’inshuti za Iran, mu gihe bari mu ntambara i Gaza, ariko ukwihora kwa Iran gushobora gukoranwa ubushishozi mu ngiro no mu mubare, nkuko inzobere zabibwiye BBC.

Umwanditsi akaba n’umusesenguzi w’ibibera mu burasirazuba bwo hagati Ali Sadrzadeh yagize ati: “Iran nta bushobozi bwo guhangana byimazeyo na Israel ifite kubera ubushobozi buke bwa gisirikare, ubwo mu bukungu ndetse n’ubwa politike. Ariko ishobora kureba igisubizo kijyanye n’ibicuruzwa mu gihugu hamwe no kurinda izina ryayo mu nshuti zayo ziri mu karere.”

Iki gitekerezo bagisangiye na Fawas Gerges wemera ko Iran itazihora igaba igitero kuri Israel, “nubwo Israel ejo yasuzuguje Iran, ikayikoza isoni”.

Gerges avuga ko Iran isa nkaho izakoresha uburyo bwo kwihangana kuko izashyira imbere intego yayo ikomeye yo gukora igisasu cya nuclear.

“Iran iri gukusanya ingufu, iri kugwiza uranium, iri gutera intambwe. Kandi ikiguzi kinini cya Iran ntabwo ari ugukora za misile 50, maze zikica abanya Israel 100, ahubwo ni ugushyiraho umugambi uhamye, atari uwo kurwanya Israel gusa, ahubwo wo kurwanya na Amerika. “

Kuva aho Israel itangirije intambara i Gaza, ibitero bya misile n’indege zitagira abadereva z’impirimbanyi zifashwa na Iran, zigakorera mu bihugu bya Syria, Iraq, Liban na Yemen, byariyongereye mu kurwanya inyungu za Israel, ariko birasa nkayo byagabanutse kugirango bidatuma Israel yinjira mu ntambara simusiga.

Sadrzadeh we yagize ati: “N'igitero kigabwe n’ingabo zishyigikiwe na Iran ku bikorwa bya Israel mu bya dipolomasi, gisa n’ikigoye”, nubwo agabisha ko ibitero bigabwa n’impirimbanyi z’aba Houthi ku mato aca mu nyanja itukura no ku kigobe cya Aden, bisa n’ibizakomeza, na cyane cyane ku mato afitanye ubusabane na Israel cyangwa Amerika.”

Ariko se impirimbanyi zikomeye za Hezbollah zifashwa na Iran, zikaba zimaze gukozanyaho na Israel ku mupaka wayo w’amajyaruguru, zizahorera Iran kuri kiriya gitero cy’i Damascus ?

Hezbollah ni umwe mu mitwe yitwaje ibirwanisho ifite intwaro nyinshi, mu mitwe itegamiye kuri leta kw’isi – amakuru yigenga avuga ko uwo mutwe ufite abarwanyi bari hagati ya 20.000 na 50.000, kandi benshi batojwe neza, banarwanye mu ntambara yabereye muri Syria.

Ikindi kiyongereyeho, uwo mutwe ufite ibirwanisho bikabakaba mu bisasu bya rokete na misile 130.000, nkuko bitangazwa n’ikigo gikora ubushakashatsi, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Ariko inzobere zavuganye na BBC zibaza ko uwo mutwe udashobora kugaba igitero gikomeye kuri Israel.

Fawaz Gerges agira ati: “Hezbollah ntishaka kugwa mu mutego wa Israel kuko basanze Benjamin Netanyahu na leta ye, yashyiriweho kurwana, babuze uko bagira kugira ngo intambara yagurwe.”

Ali Sadrzadeh yemera ko Iran izatanga igisubiza cya nyirarureshwa aho kwikururira intambara na Israel.

Ati: “Iran ifite ubunararibonye mu kugaba udutero nkutwo, nk’igihe bicaga umusirikare wayo ukomeye Qasem Soleimani," Sadrzadeh ibyo yabivuze yibutsa igisasu cya misile yagabye ku kigo cya gisirikare cyo muri Iran kw’itariki ya 8 z’ukwa mbere mu 2020.

Icyo gihe Iran yarigambiriye Al Asad mu kwihora igitero cy’indege itagira umudereva y’Amerika yarashe i Baghdad muri uko kwezi igahitana umusirikare mukuru wa IRGC, Qasem Soleimani.

Nubwo Iran ivuga ko izasubiza yihanukiriye kuri buriya bwicanyi, nta Munyamerika numwe wari muri kiriya kigo cya gisirikare wahaguye, kandi hari amakuru yavugaga ko igisirikare cy’Amerika cyari cyamenyeshejwe kare ko ibyo bisasu bya misile bigiye kugabwa.

Fawaz Gerges yemera ko igitero cyo ku nzu ihagarariye Iran i Damascus, cyari kigamije gusuzuguza igisirikare cya Iran, kwereka isi ko Iran ari ingwe itagira amenyo no guca intege urwego rushinzwe umutekano rwa Iran.

Ariko Fawaz arangiza agira ati: “Ariko ntabwo tugiye kubona ibyo nita igitero cya rutura cya Iran.”

Yousof Azizi, umushakashatsi mu by’ubutegetsi bw’igihugu kuri Kaminuza Public Administration, Virginia Tech's School of Public & International Affairs, yo muri Amerika, yemera ko hari intambara iri mu rwihisho hagati y’ibihugu bivuga ko Iran igomba kwemererwa gukora ibirwanisho bya nuclear kugira ngo yirinde ibitero bya Israel, hamwe n’abandi babona igomba kugaba ibitero kuri Israel no ku birindiro by’igisirikare cyayo.

Ariko yabwiye BBC ko ubusesenguzi bugaragara ku mbuga nkoranyambaga n’ibiganiro bitangirwa ku bitangazamakuru by’amaleta, bigaragaza ko uburyo bwo kwihangana aribwo busa n’ubuzakoreshwa.

Rero niba nta gitero gikomeye kitezwe, n’izihe zindi nzira abanya Iran bashobora gukoresha ?

Tal Pavel wo muri Kaminuza ya Israeli Institute for Cyber Policy Studies yabwiye BBC ati:

“Ntitwavuga ko yenda Iran itakoresha ibitero byo mw’ikoranabuhanga nk’uburyo bwo kwihora Israel, nko kugaba ibitero kw’ikoranabuhanga, bakangiza, bakiba, bakabona amakuru cyangwa bakaburagiza ikoranabuhanga.”

Arongera ati: "Tuzi ko mu myaka 15 ishize, habaye intambara yo mu rwihisho, yo kugabanaho ibitero kw’ikoranabuhanga, hagati ya Israel na Iran. Rero ubu, byaba bigeye mu rundi rwego.”

Bizaterwa n’uko Iran ibyifashemo, na cyane cyane umukuru w’ikirenga niwe wemeza icyemezo igihugu gifashe, ariko ubu umushikiranganji w’imibano n’amahanga wa Iran, Nasser Kanani, agumanye urufunguzo ku gituza cye.

Yatanze gasopo ati: “Iran ifite uburenganzira bwo kwihorera kandi izafata icyemezo cy’uburyo izakoresha mu guhana umwanzi.”