Amatora muri Tanzania 2020: Inzitizi n'amahirwe kuri CCM n'abatavuga rumwe

Ku mugabane wa Afrika, akenshi ni ibintu bitoroshe kubona imigambwe itavuga rumwe n'uwuri ku butegetsi ishobora gutsinda amatora yatunganijwe n'uyo mugambwe uri ku butegetsi nyene.

Ntivyoroshe na gato gutsinda aya matora, hampande y'uko yateguwe n'umugambwe uri ku butegetsi, usanga umukuru w'igihugu ari ku butegetsi na we ari mu bahiganwa.

Ibi rero nivyo umugambwe CHADEMA, ACT Wazalendo n'iyindi migambwe itavuga rumwe n'uwuri ku butegetsi igiye guhangana navyo mu matora ategekanijwe ku wa gatatu igenekerezo rya 28 z'ukw'icumi uno mwaka.

Umugambwe Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) uri ku butegetsi muri Tanzania kuva iki gihugu kironse intahe y'ukwikukira, kandi uri mu migambwe mike cane yarwaniye ukwikukira ikiri ku butegetsi muri Afrika, inyuma y'igihuhusi catewe n'impinduka za demokarasi kuri uuyu mugabane, mu myaka ya 1990.

Ariko rero n'aho bimeze uko, hariho mu bihugu bimwe bimwe imigambwe itavuga rumwe n'iyari ku butegetsi yashoboye gutsinda iyi migambwe yari yiganziye ubutegetsi imyaka n'iyindi, aha umuntu akaba yotanga uburorero mu Burundi mu 1993, Malawi, Nigeria, Ghana, Cape Verde, Kenya na Zambia.

Nico gituma rero ivyo gutsinda kw'imigambwe itavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi muri ano matora y'uwu mwaka muri Tanzania atari ibintu umuntu yohava avuga ko ari umugani, ko ari ikintu kidashoboka.

Ingene amatora atunganijwe

Amatora y'umukuru w'igihugu, abashingamateka n'abahanuzi b'amakomine ategekanijwe mu kiringo kiri munsi y'indwi zibiri ziri imbere, yateguwe n'umurwi w'igihugu ujejwe gutegura amatora muri Tanzania (NEC) , hamwe n'umurwi ujejwe gutegura amatora muri Zanzibar (ZEC) ku ruhande rw'amazinga ya Tanzania.

Uwurongoye NEC yagenywe n'umukuru w'igihugu wa Tanzania, uyu nawe muri ano matora akaba ari umwe mu bahiganwa.

Uwurongoye amatora, ari nawe cane cane ahagarikiye ibikorwa vy'amatora, na we nyene ava mu bakozi ba leta, kandi na we nyene akagenwa n'umukuru w'igihugu.

Amatora kandi ahagarikirwa n'abahagarikizi, abenshi muri bo usanga ari abakozi ba leta irongowe na Perezida John Pombe Magufuli, akaba ari na we azokwitoza ku giti c'umukuru w'igihugu aserukiye umugambwe CCM.

Ingorane nyamukuru muri Afrika nzima ni uko integuro y'amatora nk'iyi iha amahirwe menshi umukandida ari ku butegetsi - n'aho mu bisanzwe kw'isi yose usanga bigoye ko uwusanzwe ari ku butegetsi atsindwa mu matora.

Nico gituma hari benshi babona ko ari ibintu bigoye cane ku batavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi kuzoshobora gutsinda amatora mu gihe integuro nk'iyi idahinyuwe, maze itunganywe ukundi.

Ku butegertsi bwa Perezida Jakaya Kikwete harabaye umugambi wo gushaka gutegura irindi bwirizwashingiro rishasha rya Tanzania. Kimwe mu bintu bikomeye vyari mu nteguro y'iryo bwirizwashingiro, harimwo gushinga Umurwi wigenga ujejwe gutegura amatora.

Ku gihamana kibi iyi nteguro y'ibwirizwashingiro yariyamirijwe, vyumvikana ko amatora y'uku kwezi azokorwa nk'uko ayo mu 2015 no mu myaka y'imbere y'aho yakozwe.

Ivyegeranyo vy'ubushakashatsi bwakozwe n'imiryango mpuzamakungu ikurikirana amatora muri Tanzaniya no mu bindi bihugu vya Afrika bizotora abakuru bavyo muri uyu mwaka, bivuga ko ikibazo nyamukuru muri aya matora atari ukumenya niba hari imigambi canke umukandida akunzwe gusumba abandi, ko ahubwo ari ukumenya nimba aya matora azoba amatora nyayo ku wa 28 z'uku kw'icumi.

Abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi kuja hamwe

Amatora y'uyu mwaka akurikiye ayabaye mu 2015 aho imigambwe itavuga rumwe n'uwuri ku butegetsi, CCM, yashikanye amajwi atari bwigere abaho, ku bice 40%. Nimba hari ikintu cibonekeje muri ayo matora y'ico gihe, ni uko hariho amamiliyoni n'amamiliyoni y'Abatanzania bashaka impinduka.

Akabanga gakomeye k'abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi muri 2015 ni ukugira umukandida umwe; Edward Lowassa, wo muri Chadema yari ashigikiwe n'imigambwe ine itavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi yagiye hamwe kugira ngo imwamamaze mu gihugu hose.

Lowassa kandi ntiyari umukandida asanzwe. Yari umunyapolitike akomeye cane yigeze kuba umushikiranganji wa mbere kandi afise abanywanyi benshi cane mu gihugu cose.

Akandi kabirya kuri Lowassa ni uko yari avuye mu mugambwe Chama Cha Mapinduzi, vyumvikana ko hari abanywanyi benshi ba CCM bamutoye kuko bari kumwe na we igihe yari akiri muri uyu mugambwe.

Mu matora y'uno mwaka, uruhande rw'abatavuga rumwe ruzoserukirwa n'abakandida babiri: Tundu Lissu wa Chadema na Benard Membe wa ACT Wazalendo. Rero, kubona aba babiri batavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bazokwitoza bompi umwe umwe ukwiwe, ni icerekana neza ko abatavuga rumwe n'umugambwe uri ku butegetsi batari biteguye gukorera hamwe uno mwaka.

Mu mezi make aheze imbere y'uko ano matora aba, abategetsi bakuru bo ku ruhande rw'abatavuga rumwe nka Zitto Kabwe na Maalim Seif Shariff Hamad wa ACT Wazalendo, bagumye basemerera mu kwerekana akamaro ko guserukirwa n'umukandida umwe gusa.

Zitto wewe yarashitse kure cane, avuga ko mu ngendo ziwe zose yashoboye kugira mu gihugu, yashoboye kwibonera neza ko icipfuzo nyamukuru c'abanyagihugu ari uko abatavuga rumwe boja hamwe bagatanga umukandida umwe.

Gutangura imbere y'igihe Vs kuba rurangiranwa

Mu mazinga ya Zanzibar, hariho amahirwe menshi ko Maalim Seif ashobora gutsinda amatora gusumba Lissu mu matora y'umukuru w'igihugu ku mvo imwe ikomeye: Maalim yatanguye imbere y'igihe.

Hari imvo nyinshi zituma Maalim Seif aba umukandida ateye ubwoba muri Zanzibar, imwe muri zo ikaba ari uko we atangura imbere y'igihe. Kuva mu myaka ya 1995, 2000, 2010, Abanyazanzibar bamenya ko Maalim yategerezwa kwitoza imbere 'yigihe, mbere n'uno mwaka bari bazi neza ko azokwitoza.

Inguvu za Lowassa mu 2015 zatumwe ahanini n'uko yari azwi ko azotegerezwa kwitoza kuba umukuru w'igihugu imyaka itanu imbere y'uko amatora aba.

Mu bindi bihugu, vyari bizwi imbere y'igihe ko Lazarus Chakwera wa Malawi yategerezwa kwitoza.

Muri Nijeriya, Muhammadu Buhari yari azwi ko yategerezwa kwitoza, co kimwe na Goodluck Jonathan na we nyene yari azwi ko yategerezwa kwitoza imyaka itatu imbere y'uko amatora aba.

Raila Odinga wa Kenya arazwi ko azokwitoza kuba umukuru w'igihugu ca Kenya mu matora yimirije, ibi bikamuha akaryo ko gutangura kwimenyekanisha imbere y'igihe n'aho atotsinda.

Rero, biramaze kwigaragaza muri Afrika ko abatsinda amatora baba batanguye ibikorwa vyabo imbere y'igihe.

Hagati aho, siko vyagenze kuri Adama Barrow wa Gambia kubera icuka cari muri ico gihugu ariko muri rusangi ni ngombwa ko uwushaka guhiganwa koko atangura imbere y'igihe.

Lissu wa Chadema ni umunyapolitike akomeye kandi azwi cane ariko na we nyene ubwiwe ntiyari azi ko azosubira mu gihugu kugira ngo ashobore kwitoza mu matora y'uyu mwaka. Ivyamubayeko mu 2017 aho yaraswa amasasu menshi vyahatswe kurangiza ubuzima bwiwe, mbere no kugaruka mu gihugu vyabaye nk'igitangaro.

Iyo aguma mu gihugu kandi bikamenyekana ko azokwitoza kuba umukuru w'igihugu, gutyo agatangura ibikorwa vyo kwimenyekanisha imbere y'igihe, nta wuzi ko ubu ataba ahagaze neza. Raba nk'umukeba wiwe, Magufuli, vyari bizwi ko azokwitoreza ikiringo kigira kabiri kuva imyaka itanu iheze imbere y'uko aya matora aba.

Ariko rero n'aho bimeze uku, ivyabaye muri Gambia kwa Barrow ni icigwa kidasanzwe muri politike za kino gihe muri Afrika. Inyuma y'imyaka 20 yose ya Perezida Yahya Jammeh, uyu munyapolitike atavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bw'ico gihe yagiye gutsinda amatora mu gihe abashakashatsi bose bakora amatohoza ku bijanye n'amatora ata mahirwe na matoya bamuha.

Barrow yagiye kwiyerekana inyuma y'aho abanyapolitike bose batavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bashaka kwitoza bari mu buroko bapfunzwe na Jammeh. Amahirwe rero yagiye kugira ni uko abo bose bashaka ko haba impinduka bumvikanye ko bazotora iyi sura nshasha muri politike y'ico gihugu.

N'aho yatanguye imyiyamamazo yacerewe, Lissu arazwi cane muri Tanzania ugereranije n'ingene vyari bimeze kuri Barrow miri Gambia. Iraswa ryiwe ryatumye atera iyindi ntambwe yo kwitwa umunyapolitike akomeye aba umukeba ruhebwa wa Perezida Magufuli mu matora y'uno mwaka.

Abatora

Nta bushakashatsi burigera bukorwa kugira hamenyekane igituma biba, ariko ikintu kimaze kwigaragaza muri kahise ni uko Abatanzania batitabira ku bwinshi amatora iyo mu bahiganwa harimwo uwusanzwe ari ku butegetsi.

Mu matora ya nyuma yabaye harimwo umwe mu bahiganwa yari asanzwe ari umukuru w'igihugu, Jakaya Kikwete, mu 2010, abitavye amatora ico gihe babaye ibice 40% vy'abari biyandikishije gutora.

Mu gihe c'amatora, ibiharuro vyerekana ko imigambwe itavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi igira amahirwe menshi iyo igitigiri c'abiyandikishije gutora bitabiriye amatora. Iyo igitigiri kibaye gito nk'uko bisanzwe biba iyo umukuru w'igihugu atwara abaye mu bahiganwa, CCM niyo ica iharonkera agahengwe.

Ariko rero n'aho biri uko, hari amahirwe menshi ko abantu bashobora kwitabira aya matora ku rugero runini cane mu gihe hoba ikibibatuma. Mu gihe abanywanyi b'imigambwe itavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bobona ko ano matora ari ugupfa n'ugukira ku mvo iyo ari yo yose ishobora gushika muri politike, abatora bashobora kuyitabira ku bwinshi gutyo abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bakahungukira.

Ibiharuro bisanzwe bihari bitwereka ko mu matora yo mu 2000 aho Benjamin Mkapa yariko yitoreza ikiringo kigira kabiri, abitabiriye amatora bageze ku bice 70%, n'aho ico gihe ata bakeba bari bakomeye cane bava mu yindi migambwe.

Kuri Lissu

Nimba vyoshika abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bagatsinda ano matora, umukandida umwe rudende afise aya mahirwe ni Lissu wa Chadema. Ariko rero, Lissu arafise akanenge Lowassa atari afise mu 2015.

Hariko ijambo rimwe rikunda kuvugwa muri politike za Tanzania, ijambo rimwe basigiwe n'uwahoze ari umukuru w'iki gihugu, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, kandi ryama ririko rirasubirwamwo cane n'abanyapolitike. Iri jambo rigabisha ko abatavuga rumwe muri Tanzania bo nyabo ari barya bazoba bavuye mu mugambwe uri ku butegetsi CCM.

Imwe mu nsiguro y'aya majambo ni nk'igihe Lowassa yimuka akava muri CCM akaja muri Chadema mu 2015 hamwe n'igihe Augustine Mrema ava muri CCM akaja muri NCCR Mageuzi mu 1995. Igihe aba bimuka, bagiye bajanye n'abanywanyi ba CCM batari bake.

Bafatiye kuri ibi, hari benshi babona ko kugira ngo abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi nabo bashobore kuronka akaberu, ari ngombwa ko CCM ibanza gusambuka. Kurya vyagenze muri Kenya igihe umugambwe KANU wari ku butegetsi ucitsemwo ubunywenywe ari ho abatavuga rumwe baciye baronka akaryo ko gutsinda amatora.

Tundu Lissu ntiyigeze aba umunywanyi wa CCM. Ahanini, kubera amajambo mabi yagiye aravuga ku mugambwe uri ku butegetsi n'abanywanyi bawo, hari abanywanyi ba CCM benshi badashobora kumutora ngo arongore igihugu. Lowassa yaronse amajwi yose y'abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi yongerako n'ay'abanywanyi ba CCM bari bizeye ko yari gushobora kurongora igihugu neza.

Akanenge Lissu afise muri politike ni muri ba banyapolitike bavuga bati urankunda ushaka udashaka naho ureke. Muri ano matora, arashobora kuronka amajwi menshi y'abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi, ariko akagira ikibazo co kuronka ay'aba CCM n'ayo abandi gushika ubu batarabona neza uruhande boshigikira.

Hagati aho, hariho inzira imwe ishobora kumuha amahirwe, aha naho ni igihe Abatanzania bomubonera ikigongwe ku magorwa yabonye mu kiringo c'imyaka itatu yose iheze, canke naho ugasanga abenshi bashimye kumuha amajwi kubera ishavu bafitiye CCM.

Iri shavu rishobora kumuha amajwi rishobora kuba riri mu Batanzaniya babona ko, kumvo izi canke ziriya, ubuzima bwabo bwakozweko na politike ya Perezida Magufuli. Uwu ni umurwi gushika ubu utarafata ingingo nimba bokwitabira amatora canke bakabivamwo. Ariko bangana iki?

Hashobora kandi kuba n'abanywanyi ba CCM babona ko ata karusho bigeze baronka kuri buno butegetsi nk'uko vyari bimeze mu myaka iheze.

Kwitoza atawe muhiganwa

N'aho umunsi w'itora utaragera, CCM yaramaze kubona ko izobona intebe mirongo ibiribiri z'abashingamateka mu ntara zitandukanye mu gihugu. Nk'uko vyagiye vyibonekeza kuva muri kahise, abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi nta nguvu bafise zo gushobora guhagararira amajwi yabo mu burere bataba bafisemwo abitoza.

Muri ano matora, bimaze kwigaragaza mu burere butari buke aho abitoza bakuwe ku ntonde n'umurwi w'igihugu ujejwe gutegura amatora kubera hari ivyo bari babuze. Gushika ubu, abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bavuga ko ibi ari amayeri atumwa n'uko habuze umurwi wigenga ujejwe gutegura amatora.

Mu gihe ibintu vyobandanya uko biri gushika ku wa 28/10, CCM izoja mu matora yizigiye neza ko ifise n'imiburiburi umuliyoni w'amajwi imbere y'uko n'amatora aba. Nta wundi mugambwe n'umwe ushobora kuvuga ko ufise aya mahirwe kiretse umugambwe uri ku butegetsi.

Ikindi gishoboka, ni uko kumbure ivyo kubura abashingamateka bishobora gutuma abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bishira hamwe bagafata ingingo yo kwitaba amatora bagapfuma batora umukuru wigihugu.

Bakavuga bati ko twabuze abashingamateka, basi reka tugende dupfume dutora umukeba wa Magufuli kugira basi tumuhe amajwi yose ashobore gutsinda.

Ibi rero bisa na vya bindi vy'amajwi atumwe n'ikigongwe bafitiye Lissu hamwe na rya shavu bafitiye CCM. Aha harimwo tubiri, hari ababona ko ibi bishobora kuba inyungu kuri CCM, ariko kandi hakaba abandi babona ko yoba inyungu itigaragaraza ku ruhande rw'abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi.