Me ya sa Trump ya kasa shawo kan Putin don kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Ukraine?

A cikin makonnin baya-bayan nan zaman doya da manja tsakanin Amurka da Rasha na ƙara fitowa fili - inda Amurka ta ƙaƙaba takunkumai kan manyan kamfanonin man fetur ɗin Rasha, Rosneft da Lukoil.

A nata ɓangaren Rasha ta yi gwajin sabon babban makami mai linzaminta mai suna Burevestnik wanda zai iya ɗaukan nukiliya da kuma jirgi maras matuƙi na ƙarƙashin ruwa, Poseidon.

Dukkanin ƙasashen biyu sun ce akwai yiwuwar su yi gwajin makaman nukiliya.

Baya ga musayar barazana da ƙasashen ke yi a tsakaninsu, haka nan kuma ana ci gaba da gwabza yaƙi a Ukraine.

Wannan abu ne da ya zo a ba-zata, ganin yadda aka fara shekarar nan da fatan kyautatuwar alaƙa tsakanin ɓangarorin biyu.

Donald Trump ya koma fadar White House da alƙawarin cewa zai kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Ukraine da Rasha, tare da "samar da zaman lafiya da Vladimir Putin."

To sai dai yaƙin na ci gaba - kuma Amurka da Rasha na yi wa juna barazana a maimakon ƙoƙarin yin sulhu.

To, me ya sa salon diflomasiyyar Trump ya kasa aiki a kan Putin?

'Muna tattaunawa rumi-rumi amma babu ci gaba'

A farko wa'adin mulkin Trump na biyu, an ga alamun nasara. A karon farko tun bayan da Rasha ta ƙaddamar da samame a Ukraine, an yi tattaunawa kai tsaye tsakanin Amurka da Rasha.

Shugabannin ƙasashen biyu sun riƙa tattaunawa ta waya a kai a kai, sannan kuma suka haɗu gaba-da-gaba a Alaska cikin watan Agusta.

Ya zuwa yanzu, nasarar kawai da ƙasashen biyu za su iya nunawa ita ce tattaunawar da suka yi.

"Kasancewar muna magana kan yadda za a cimma zaman lafiya, wannan ci gaba ne," in ji Andrew Peek, tsohon babban daraktan harkokin Rasha da Amurka a Majlisar Tsaro ta Amurka.

"Bayyana matsayar kowane ɓangare, tattaunawa da juna - wannan ne tushe...haka diflomasiyya take aiki."

Jakadan Trump Witkoff

Donald Trump ya dogara sosai kan sanayyarsa da Putin.

Ya tura jakada na musamman Steve Witkoff - abokinsa na ƙut da ƙut lokacin da suke harkar gine-gine a birnin New York - domin ganawa da Putin a lokuta da dama. Bayan duk wata ganawa, ɓangarorin biyu kan bayyana cewa suna samun fahimtar juna.

To amma rashin gogewar Witkoff a harkar diflomasiyya na kawo tantama da ɗarɗar tsakanin masana harkokin ƙasashen waje.

Jami'an diflomasiyya biyu na Turai, waɗanda ba su so a ambaci sunansu ba, sun shaida wa BBC cewa sau da dama yakan baro birnin Moscow da tunanin cewa Putin ya shirya sassautowa - sai daga baya sai a gane ba haka ba ne.

Wani tsohon jami'in fadar shugaban Rasha ta Kremlin, wanda shi ma ba ya son a bayyana sunansa, ya shaida wa BBC cewa Witkoff na shan wahala wajen fahimtar sarƙakiyar da ke tattare da matsayar Rasha, sannan kuma yakan gaza bayani dalla-dalla kan manufar Amurka ga Rasha.

A sanadiyyar haka, sai ya kasance ba a samu daidaito a muradan ɓangarorin biyu ba, kamar yadda ya shaida wa BBC.

Haka nan kuma tattaunawa da juna ta zama babban ƙalubale a lokacin ganawar Trump da Putin a Alaska, a watan Agusta, kamar yadda alamu suka nuna ƙarara.

Ina ɗaya daga cikin ɗaruruwan ƴan jarida da suka halarci ganawar, wadda aka yanke ta ba tare da sanar da wani takamaiman dalili ba.

Lokacin da Trump da Putin suka gana da manema labarai bayan ganawar, babu wata matsaya da suka sanar ta kawo ƙarshen yaƙin.

Rashin tabbaci ko kaɗan daga Putin ya sanya Trump - wanda ya karɓi baƙuncin tattaunawar - cikin mawuyacin hali.

Tsakanin Rasha da Amurka, babu wanda ya yi ƙarin haske kan abin da ya faru a ganawar, saboda haka sai ƴan jarida suka yi ta ƙoƙarin samun bayanai ta hanyar wasu kafofin a asirce.

Jaridar Financial Times ta ce Trump ya yi tayin sassauta takunkumai da kuma faɗaɗa harkokin kasuwanci, idan Rasha ta amince ta tsagaita wuta a Ukraine.

Nan take Putin ya yi watsi da tayin tare da buƙatar Ukraine ta miƙa wuya sannan ta miƙa wa Rasha yankin Donbas - inda aka ruwaito cewa ya yi wasu bayanai da suka fusata Trump, kamar yadda Financial Times ta bayyana.

"Amurkawa sun ji haushi sosai" sanadiyyar rashin cimma wani abin kirki a Alaska, in ji wani jami'in diflomasiyya na Turai, lokacin da ya tattauna da BBC.

"Sun ɗora zatonsu kan gurguwar fahimtar yadda Rasha take ɗaukar rikicinta da Ukraine," in ji wani jami'in da ya tattauna da BBC.

Eric Green, wanda toshon mai bayar da shawara kan Rasha ne a Majalisar Tsaron ƙasa ta Amurka lokacin mulkin Joe Biden, ya shaida wa BBC cewa "tabbas akwai rashin fahimta game da abubuwan da za a iya sadaukarwa da kuma musaya.

"Baya ga batun yankuna, akwai ruɗani game da tabbacin tsaro, sannan ina ganin wasu jami'an gwamnatin Trump ba su fahimci abin da Putin ke nufi da mayar da hankali kan 'asalin sabubban' yakin ba."

Damuwar Trump a bayyane take. "A duk lokacin da na yi magana da Vladimir, muna yin tattaunawa mai daɗi, sai dai babu wata nasara da ake samu," in ji shi a watan Oktoba, sa'ilin da yake sanar da sabbin takunkumai.

Mene ne abin da Putin yake so?

Matsayar Rasha ba ta sauya ba.

Sharuɗɗan da Putin ya gindaya na kawo ƙarshen samamen Ukraine sun haɗa da:

Rasha ta ce za ta daina kai hare-hare ne kawai idan aka cimma cikakkiyar yarjejeniya. Sai dai Amurka da Ukraine ba su amince da hakan ba ko kaɗan, sun dage a kan cewa wajibi ne a fara tsagaita wuta kafin a shiga batun yarjejeniya.

Idan ana so a samu ci gaba, in ji Andrew Peek, dole ne ɓangarorin su samu matsaya kan abu uku:

Za a iya cewa ba a je ko ina ba kan ko ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan, in ji shi.

Da farko Trump ya nuna kamar ƙofarsa a bude take game da tattaunawa kan sadaukar da wasu yankunan Ukraine. A watan Afrilu ya ce "Yankin Crimea zai ci gaba da kasancewa a hannun Rasha", kuma kamar yadda rahotanni suka nuna, tawagarsa ta yi tunanin amincewa da ƙwace yankin da Rasha ta yi a 2014.

A tattaunawarsa da Volodymyr Zelensky a watan Oktoba, Trump ya bijiro da batun "miƙa yanki", kamar yadda kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters ya ruwaito.

Rasha ta ɗan nuna aniyar sauya matsaya kaɗan: Ministan harkokin waje na Turkiyya ya ce Rasha za ta iya amincewa da tsayawa kan yankunan da ake fafatawa a kudancin Ukraine.

Sai dai, ya bayyana cewa Rasha na ci gaba da dagewa kan karɓe iko da yankin Donbas mai arziƙin ma'adanai, wanda ta mamaye wani ɓangare a cikin shi.

Rasha ta ce ba za ta ce tattauna cikakken bayani game da tattaunawar da ake yi ba, har da batun yankuna.

Sai dai jami'an diflomasiyya sun dage kan cewa tattaunawa kan yankunan Ukraine da Rasha ke son ta ƙwace ba shi ne babbar matsalar ba.

Ɗaya daga cikin manyan jami'an diflomasiyya na Turai ya shaida wa BBC cewa Trump, kasancewarsa mutumin da tun a baya yake harkar gine-gine, ya so a cimma "yarjejeniya kan gine-gine" tsakaninsa da Rasha. "Amma shi Putin, abin da ya dame shi, shi ne batun samun ƙarfin iko kan Ukraine," in ji shi.

Wato samun ƙarfin iko kan harkar mulki da na sojin Ukraine. Rasha ta dage kan cewa wajibi ne Ukraine ta zama ƴar-ba-ruwanmu sannan wajibi ne ta rage yawan sojojinta.

Ita kuwa Ukraine na neman Amurka da kungiyar Nato su ba ta tabbaci game da tsaronta.

"Rasha ba ta nuna sassautawa ba game da duk wani abu da ya shafi tabbacin tsaro ga Ukraine - a shekarar 2022 da yanzu," in ji Peek.

"Giɓin da ke nan ya fi ƙarfin na batun musayar yankuna."

'Jiran lokaci'

Gaza cimma matsaya game da tattaunawar birnin Budapest ya nuna ƙiƙi-ƙaƙar da ake ciki.

Bayan wayar da suka yi a watan Oktoba, Trump da Putin sun ɗora wa sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka, Marco Rubio da ministan harkokin wajen Rasha Sergei Lavrov alhakin tsara wata tattaunawa da za a yi tsakanin shugabannin biyu.

Sun yi bayani sau daya, amma babu maganar ganawar.

Kafar yaɗa labarai ta Bloomberg ta ce Rubio ya gane cewa matsayar Rasha ba ta sauya ba.

Jaridar Financial Times ta ruwaito cewa Rasha ta tura wata takarda, inda ta sake nanata manyan buƙatunta masu nauyi - wani abu da ya sanyaya gwiwar jami'an gwamnatin Amurka.

A ranar 12 ga watan Nuwamba, Rubio ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa "Ba za mu ci gaba da ganawa ba kawai saboda muna son ganawa".

Washegari, Lavrov ya ƙaryata cewa Rasha ba ta son a tattauna. Ya ce a shirye Rasha take a yi tattaunawa karo na biyu tsakanin Putin da Trump, matuƙar za a ɗora ne kan "sakamakon kyakkyawar matsayar da aka cimma a Alaska."

A ɓangare ɗaya, Ukraine da ƙasashen Turai sun yi ta ƙoƙarin ganin sun dawo da alaƙarsu da Trump.

A farkon shugabancinsa, Trump ya nuna cewa zai tattauna ne kawai da Putin kai-tsaye, inda ya ture Ukraine a gefe, wani abu da ya haifar da fargaba tsakanin Ukraine da ƙasashen Turai.

Sai dai tuni Trump ya sassauta kalamansa game da Ukraine.

Ba kamar Rasha ba, Ukraine ta nuna yiwuwar sassautowa a tattaunawarta da Amurka, inda ta yi maraba da shawarar Amurka ta tsagaita wuta da kuma yiwuwar tattaunawa da Rasha.

Matsayar Ukraine da ƙawayenta a bayyane take: shawo kan Trump ya san cewa miƙa wuya ga Rasha zagon-ƙasa ne ga tsaron Turai da Amurka.

"Mun san dama zai dawo ya fahimci cewa ba da zuciya ɗaya Rasha take tattaunawa ba," kamar yadda wani jami'in diflomasiyyar Turai ya shaida wa BBC. "Aikinmu shi ne mu jira lokaci - kuma hakan ne ya faru."

Wata uku bayan ganawar da aka yi a Alaska, babu alamar cewa Rasha da Amurka sun kama hanyar cimma matsaya.

A watan Oktoba Amurka ta ƙaƙaba sabbin jerin takunkumai a karon farko kan Rasha, inda ta dora takunkuman kan mayan kamfanonin mai na Rasha.

"Duk abin da muke yi, muna yi ne domin Putin ya zo a tattauna," in ji sakataren baitul-malin Amurka, Scott Bessent, kamar yadda ya shaida wa kafar CBS.

Putin ya yi watsi da matakin, inda ya bayyana takunkuman a matsayin "waɗanda za su cutar da tattaunawar diflomasiyya", sannan ya dage kan cewa "Rasha ba za ta sauya matsayi saboda matsi ba".

Kwanaki kaɗan bayan haka, Rasha ta yi gwajin makami mai linzami da zai iya daukan makamin nukiliya, wata alama ta cewa tattaunawa ba ta yi rana ba.

Tacewa: Andrew Webb, BBC World Service