Me ya rage wa Nijar, Mali da Burkina Faso bayan ficewa daga Ecowas?

Ƙasashen Nijar, Mali da Burkina Faso sun ƙara kawo rabuwar kawuna a yankin Yammacin Afirka cikin makon nan, bayan sun bayyana ficewarsu daga ƙungiyar raya tattalin arzikin ƙasashen yankin, wato Ecowas.

Masu sharhi na ganin cewa hakan zai ƙara kawo barazana tare da daƙushe yunƙurin ƙungiyar na magance matsalolin yawaitar juyin mulki da yankin ke fuskanta da kuma barazanar zaman lafiya da haɗin kan ƙasashen ƙungiyar 15.

Cikin wata sanarwar haɗin gwiwa da suka fitar ranar Lahadi, ƙasashen yankin Sahel ɗin uku sun bayyana damuwarsu kan yadda suka ce Ecowas ɗin ta kasa magance matsalolin tsaro na ƙungiyoyi masu ikirarin jihadi da ke da alaƙa da ISIS da al-Qaeda da ke neman wargaza yankin.

Ƙasashen na yankin Sahel sun kuma zargi shugabannin Ecowas da ''kare muradun ƙasashen waje''.

A ƙarƙashin yarjejeniyar da ta kafa Ecowas, duk ƙasar da ke son ficewa daga ƙungiyar, dole ne ta sanar da hakan a rubuce shekara guda kafin lokacin ficewar.

Sakatariyar ƙungiyar da ke Abuja ta ƙi cewa komai kan sanarwar ficewar ƙasashen.

Shugaban Najeriya, Bola Tinubu - wanda shi ne shugaban ƙungiyar - ya ce wannan mataki da shugabannin sojin ƙasashen waɗanda ba 'zaɓarsu aka yi ba'' - suka ɗauka ba komai ba ne illa yunƙurin dankwafar da al'umomin ƙasashensu.

Zaman da aka yi da shugabannin mulkin sojin ƙasashen a baya-bayan nan bai samu nasarar sanya lokacin gudanar da zaɓuka a ƙasashen ba.

Ficewa daga ƙungiyar zai sa ƙasashen uku ci gaba da zama saniyar ware a yankin.

Farfesa Jibrin Ibrahim, masani kan harkokin ƙasashen duniya, kuma babban jami'i a Cibiyar ci gaban Dimokradiyya (CDD) ya yi gargaɗin cewar,''wannan abin baƙin ciki ne, domin kuwa ficewar tasu za ta ƙara haifar da yaduwar rikice-rikice a yankin Sahel, a maimakon raguwarsa''.

Ya ƙara da cewa rashin alaƙa mai kyau tsakanin ƙasashen uku da ƙasar Algeriya, wadda ke da karfi ta ɓangaren yaƙi da ƙungiyoyin masu iƙirarin jihadi.

Kawo yanzu dai ba a san irin illar da ficewar za ta iya yi wa ƙasashen ba, amma hakan zai rage ikon ƙungiyar Ecowas a Afirka, wadda a yanzu ke iko da ƙasashen da ke samar da arzikin cikin gida na fiye da dala biliyan 700

Yarjejeniyar da ta kafa kungiyar a shekarar 1975 ta bayar da damar zirga-zirgar mutane ba tare da shinge ba a tsakanin ƙasashen.

Hakan ya haifar da bunƙasar kasuwanci da tattalin arziki yankin, tare da tallafa wa rayuwar iyalai masu yawa da bunƙasa arzikin yankin.

Farfesa Ibrahim ya ce ƙungiyar ta kuma samu nasarar haɗa kan 'ya'yanta domin ci gaban kasuwancinsu, da ɓangaren lafiya tare da tallafa wa harkokin shugabancin ƙasashen ƙungiyar da ɓunƙasa dimokraɗiyya a yankin, to amma ya ce a yanzu duka waɗannan abubuwa na cikin hatsari.

Malam Ilyasu Gadu, tsohon ma'aikacin ofisoshin jakadancin ƙasa a Jamus da Birnatniya ya ce matakin ficewar zai tunzura wasu ƙarin ƙasashen domin ficewa daga ƙungiyar.

Abokai, 'yan uwa da maƙiya

Sojojin da suka gudanar da juyin mulki a Nijar da Mali da kuma Burkina Faso sun bayyana taɓarɓarewar tsaro a matsayin hujjar gudanar da juye-juyen mulkin soji a ƙasashen uku.

To sai dai hare-haren masu iƙirarin jihadin sun ci gaba da ƙaruwa, bayan kifar da gwamnatocin farar hular da sojojin suka yi.

Ecowas ta ƙaƙaba wa ƙasashen takunkumai a wani martani kan juye-juyen mulkin, lamarin da ya haifar da ƙaruwar farashin kayyaki a Mali da Nijar, inda aka gudanar da jerin zanga-zanga kan matakin na Ecowas, abin da ƙasashen suka kira ''rashin adalci'' daga ƙungiyar.

A watan Disamban 2023, hukumar Abinci ta Malisar Dinkin Duniya ta ce farashin shinkafa a Nijar ya ƙaru da fiye da kashi 20 cikin 100 a rubu'in ƙarshe na shekarar, lamarin da al'ummar ƙasar miliyan 25 ke fuskantar barazanar tsananin ƙarancin abinci.

Shugabannin mulkin sojin ƙasashen sun kuma mayar da alakar ƙawancensu ga ƙasar Rasha, tare da ƙoƙarin yanke alaƙa da ƙasashen Turai, bayan yanke alaƙarsu da Faransa.

Har zuwa shekakar da ta gabata, Faransa na da dakaru fiye da 5,000 a yankin, inda Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ke da dakaru 13,000 da ma'aikata domin aikin wanzar da zaman lafiya a Mali.

Haka kuma shugabannin sojojin sun kuma kori sojin ƙasashen waje tare da yin maraba da dakarun ƙungiyar sojojin hayar Rasha ta Wagner - waɗanda aka jibge a Mali da Burkina Faso.

Mista Gadu ya ce Rasha ta zama ''ƙasar da al'ummar ƙasashen ke son dogara da ita kan tsaronsu, tare da ƙulla ƙawancen kasuwanci da ita.

Ya ce yaƙin Ukraine ya sa ƙungiyar tsaro ta ''Nato - ƙarƙashin jagorancin Amurka da faransa da Birtaniya -- na adawa da Rasha.

Rasha na ƙoƙarin kafa sansaninta a Afirka ta Yamma, wani wuri da aka jima ana kallo a matsayin yankin da ke ƙarƙashin ikon Faransa.

Me zai faru a yanzu?

Amaka Anku wata mai sharhi a cibiyar 'Eurasia Group Africa' ta ce Ecowas ta ɗauki mataki mai tsanani na ƙaƙaba wa ƙasashen yankin takunkumai, bayan jaddada ƙudurinta na rashin amincewa da juyin mulki.

“Akwai buƙatar ƙungiyar ta ɗauki matakin da zai martaba yarjejeniyar da ta kafa kungiyar'', in ji ta.

''A ɗaya ɓangaren kuma, abin da ya haddasa juye-juyen mulkin a ƙasashen yankin Sahel shi ne kasa magance matsalolin ƙasashen, musamman ɓangaren tsaro da tattalin arziki.''

Ficewa daga ƙasashen ba yana nufin za a daina haɗa kai wajen yaƙar matsalar tsaro a yankin ba, kasancewar akwai yarjejeniyar tsaro da ƙasashen da ma ba a cikin ƙungiyar suke ba, irin su Chadi da Kamaru.

Amma Anku ta ce Ecowas na buƙatar ɗaukar gagarumin mataki don magance matsalar tsaro da ƙasashen yankin ke fuskanta.

“Ya kamata wannan ya zama wani cikakken tsari da ƙasashen yankin za su yi, tare da haɗin gwiwar hukumomin leƙen asirin ƙasashen da dakarun sojojinsu,'' in ji ta.

“Sai dai hakan na buƙatar muhimman kayan aiki, wandanda kuma wadannan kasashe ba su da shi a yanzu, don haka ba abu ne mai sauƙi su iya magancewa kansu matsalar ba.”

Farfesa jibrin Ibrahim ya ce ƙaruwar rashin jituwa tsakanin Aljeriya da Moroko shi ne babban batun siyasa kan ficewar ƙasashen, kuma zai ƙara haifar da wani sabon ƙawance.

Ya ƙara da cewa ƙasashen uku za su so ƙulla ƙawance da Morocco. Wani mataki da ake ganin zai sa kasar ta buɗe musu hanya zuwa tekun Atlantica, abin da ƙasashen suka jima suna mafarki.

Ƙasahen uku ba su da iyaka da ruwa, lamarin da ya sa suka dogara da makwabtansu wajen samun isa ga teku, da kasuwanci da shigar da abinci zuwa ƙasashen, domin haka ake ganin wannan matakin zai bunƙasa ƙawancen kasuwanci da na siyasa tsakaninsu da Morocco.

To sai dai matakin ka iya haifar da wata sabuwar matsalar, kamar yadda Farfesa Jibrin Ibrahim ya bayyana.

''Ƙasashen ka iya fuskantar ƙaruwar hare-haren ta'addanci a ƙasashensu, wani abu da ake ganin Aljeriya za ta tunzura, kuma wannan abu zai iya zama barazana ga ƙasashen'', kamar yadda Farfesa Jibrin ya shaida wa BBC.