Marilyn vos Savant : Umugore wa mbere w’ubwenge bwinshi kw’isi

Iyumvire nk’ubu uri mw’ihiganwa ribera ku mboneshakure.

Ufise amahirwe yo gutsindira imodoka nshasha, ariko kugira ngo uyironke, uri imbere y’inzugi zitatu, ukaba utegerezwa guhitamwo urugi rurimwo impfunguruzo.

Inyuma y’izi nzugi zindi hariyo agashimwe ata n’umwe yokaryoherererwa : impene.

Dufate ko uhisemwo urugi rwa kabiri, rwo hagati, ugaca wumva ko ushobora gutsinda. Umunyamakuru aripfuza kugufasha mu gushiramwo akabirya muri rino higanwa, mu kuvuga ibiri inyuma ya rumwe muri zino nzugi (wewe arazi neza ahari izi mpene n’ahari iyi modoka).

Yuguruye urugi rwa gatatu, aho haca haza impene y’umujinya yari imaze igihe kinini yugaranywe.

Umunyamakuru araguhitishamwo: uragumana urugi rwa kabiri wahisemwo canke urashaka guhindura ucagure urwa mbere?

Wiyumviriye neza, urasigaranye amahirwe abiri, aha rero ushobora gufata ko ufise amahirwe yo gutsindira iyi modoka ku rugero rwa 50%, hanyuma ku rundi rwa 50% narwo ko ushobora gutahukana impene.

Ariko wiyumviriye neza, nk’uko Marilyn vos Savant yabigize, ushobora kuba ufise amahirwe ku rugero rwa bibiri vya bitatu (66%) yo gutsindira imodoka.

Kandi ibi vyose bifitaniye isano n’ikintu gisanzwe canke kigoye co kwihweza ibintu vyose bishoboka.

Mu gitabo c'incabwenge zisumba abandi muri Guinness

Marilyn Mach vos Savant, ubu afise imyaka 76, yamaze igihe kitari gito ari umwanditsi wa "Ask Marilyn" (twogereranya na Baza Marilyn), igisata c’ikinyamakuru co muri Amerika yishuriramwo ibibazo, akahatangira utujajuro hamwe n’ivyiyumviro vyiwe ku bibazo bitandukanye.

Ni umwanditsi kandi w’ibitabo, akaba mbere yaranabaye n’umurwizatunga yagurisha imitahe. Ariko mu bwana bwiwe, yari afise irindi zina ry’ubuhizi ridasanzwe.

Amaze kwishura ibibazo bike vy’igipimo c’ubwenge (IQ/QI), kimwe muri vyo yakironsemwo amanota 228, incuro zirenga zibiri z’urugero rusanzwe.

Igitabo Guinness World Records, candikwamwo abaciye imihigo caramushize ku rutonde rwaco kuva mu 1985 gushika 1989 nk’umugore yari afise urugero rutari bwigere ruhabo rwa IQ (ubwenge). Kubera iyo mvo, yiswe "umuntu wa mbere afise ubwenge bwinshi cane kw’isi yose".

Vos Savant ni umukobwa w’abimukira b’Abanyabulaya bimukiye mu gisagara ca Saint-Louis kiri mu ntara ya Missouri, hagati muri Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, ari naho yavukiye muri Myandagaro (8) 1946.

Yafata ko abantu bategerezwa kwitwa amazina y’abavyeyi biwe bompi. Nico gituma yafashe izina rya nyina wiwe akiri inkumi, Savant, bisigura "umunyabwenge" mu gifaransa.

Uko yagiye yigira imbere mu mashure, yagenda yerekana ubumenyi budasanzwe mu biharuro no muri siyansi (science). Ku myaka cumi, yagiye gukora ibibazo vy’igipimo c’ubwenge (IQ) ku bigo vya Stanford-Binet na Hoeflin's Mega. Aha ha nyuma niho yaronkeye amanota 228, ari naho Guinness yaciye ifata.

Kuva ico gihe, yaciye afatwa nk’umwana w’agahebuza, n’aho ibi ataco vyahinduye ku mibereho yiwe. Amaze gushika mu myaka y’ubuyabaga, yavuze ko yakunda gufasha abavyeyi biwe mw’iduka kandi ko yakunda gusoma cane.

Aho kugira ngo yige kw’ishure kaminuza rizwi cane rya Ivy League muri Amerika, yahisemwo kwiga filosofiya (philosophie) kw’ishure kaminuza ya Washington, mu gisagara ca Saint-Louis c’amavuko yiwe.

Hagati aho, ivyo kwiga yahavuye abivamwo kugira ngo yiteho urudandaza rw’abavyeyi biwe rw’imitahe.

Ariko ubwamamare bwiwe mu kibazo c’igipimo c’ubwenge bwaramukurikiranye.

Mu myaka ya 1970, vos Savant yararonse amahera akwiye yamushoboje gushika ku ntego yiwe yo kuba umwanditsi. Yaritabiriye ibibazo vyo gupima ubwenge vyatangazwa, nk’ibizwi nka Omni IQ na Quiz Contest, hampande y’ibitabo vyiwe yagiye yandika mu binyamakuru.

Amaze kwimukira i New York, yagiye aboneka mu kiganiro ca David Letterman hamwe n’ica Joe Franklyn. Yama igihe cose abazwa ibibazo bijanye n’ico ari co ubwenge.

Yishuye Joe Franklyn ati : "Ubwenge ni ubushobozi bwawe muri rusangi bwo kuvyaza umusaruro ubumenyi bwawe. QI/IQ irashobora gusa gupima ubushobozi bwawe bwo gukoresha ubwo bwenge".

Ico gihe, yatanguje ikiganiro "Ask Marilyn" (Baza Marilyn), gikurikiranwa mu gihugu cose gicishijwe mu kinyamakuru Parade ariko kandi kigacishwa no mu binyamakuru bitari bike.

Mu 1989 niho yabazwa kuri ca kibazo kijanye n’urugi rwo guhitamwo kugira ngo umuntu atsindire agashimwe. Inyishu yiwe yateje amajambo menshi, mbere no mu bahinga mu bijanye n’ibiharuro na siyansi.

Inyishu ku kajajuro

Umushinge w’ikibazo c’imodoka n’impene nticari ikintu gishasha kimaze gushika mu nkuru ya vos Savant.

Kuva imyaka mirongo imbere y’aha, cari kizwi nk’ "ikibazo ca Monty Hall", bafatiye kw’izina ry’uwaremesha ikiganiro co ku mboneshakure yo muri Amerika "Let's Make a Deal", cacishwamwo ibibazo bisa n’iki.

Umwe mu bahinga mu biharuro Steve Selvin, yashikirije inyishu mu kinyamakuru American Statistician ca kaminuza mu 1975.

Ariko inyishu ya vos Savant, inyishu yashusha n’iya Selvin, ni yo yatejwe uruhagarara.

"Ni vyo, wotegerejwe guhindura. Urugi rwa mbere rufise amahirwe yo gutsinda ku rugero rwa kimwe ca gatatu, ariko urugi rwa kabiri rufise amahirwe ku rugero rwa bibiri vya bitatu. Ubu ni bwo buryo bwiza bwo kwihweza ivyabaye. Dufate ko hari inzugi zingana n’umuriyoni hanyuma ugatora urugi rwa mbere. Uwuremesheje iri higanwa, ari na we azi ibinyegeje inyuma y’inzugi kandi agerageza kwihoza urugi nyarwo rurimwo aka gashimwe, arazugurura zose, kiretse urugi inomero 777.777. None ntuca uhindura urugi ubwo nyene? ", niko dushobora gusoma mu nyishu yatanze.

Ivyo yavuze vyavuzweko vyinshi, vos Savant yavuze ko yaronse amakete yababa 10.000, harimwo ayababa 1.000 yavuye mu bahinga mu biharuro n’abariko baraca ama-doctora mu bisata bitandukanye, nk’uko vyanditswe n’ikinyamakuru New York Times mu nkuru yasohotse mu 1991.

Robert Sachs, umwigisha wa kaminuza George Mason muri Virginie, yavuze ati : "Vyose wabitovye! Nk’umunyamwuga mu biharuro, mfise impungenge n’ukungene abanyagihugu muri rusangi ata bumenyi bafise mu biharuro. N’udufashe wemere ko wihenze, hanyuma muri kazoza uzobanze kwitonda ».

Vos Savant yaramaze igihe kitari gito arwanira inyishu yiwe yatanze, n’aho hari benshi bamunegura.

E. Ray Bobo, umwigisha w’ibiharuro kuri kaminuza ya Georgetown yanditse ati: "Urihenze cane. Hakenewe abahinga mu biharuro bangahe barakaye kugira ngo wemere ?"

Inyishu ya vos Savant ni yo, mu gihe cose umunyamakuru yerekanye ikiri inyuma y’urugi rutari rwo hanyuma agatanga akaryo ko guhindura. Nico gituma iki kibazo kiri mu gice c’ibibazo bishobora gutangwako inyishu nyinshi.

Mu guhitamwo urugi, uba utanguye ihiganwa ufise ica gatatu co gutsinda. 2/3 navyo bisigaye biri mu minwe y’umunyamakuru. Ushobora kuba wahisemwo urugi nyarwo, ariko uracafise 33% zonyene zo gutsinda.

Iyo umunyamakuru ashize ahabona imwe mu nyishu zitari zo, uramutse uhindura amahitamwo yawe, wiyongerereje ikindi ca gatatu c’amahirwe yo gutsinda (66%).

Ikosa ryama rihari ni ukwibaza ko ufise 50 % y’amahirwe muri ico gihe, kuko hari ikimaze kuvamwo (iyugururwa rya rumwe muri zino nzugi) kizana ikintu gishasha.

Guhindura urugi ntibisigura ko utegerezwa gutsindira iyi modoka, ahubwo bikwongerereza gusa amahirwe, kuko hariho kimwe camaze kuvamwo, iki naco kikaba ari iyugururwa ry’urugi rumwe, uru narwo si rumwe rufise impfunguruzo z’imodoka namba, ahubwo ni urw’impene.

Ibi vyarerekanywe incuro nyinshi. Inyuma y’imyaka mike, BBC yitabiriye igikorwa c’igerageza aho abanyeshure bo kw’ihuri kaminuza ya Cardiff bagabuwemwo kabiri, bamwe baba abanyamakuru, abandi nabo baba abahiganwa.

Abahinduye bari bafise amahirwe yo gutsinda ku ncuro zibiri, kuko muri 30 bahiganwa bafashe ingingo yo guhindura, 18 batsindiye iyo modoka. Ibi bisigura ko, hari urugero rwa 60% rwo gutsinda. Hagati aho, muri 50 bafashe ingingo yo kuguma kw’izima, 11 bonyene nibo babitoye, urugero rwa 36 %.

Vos Savant nta makete yo gusaba imbabazi angana n’ayo yaronse y’abamunegura, ariko yararonse rimwe gusa, rya Prof. Sachs, yavuze ati: "Ubu ndicishije bugufi. Mu kwigaya, ndiyemeje kwishura abantu bose banyandikiye banyiyamiriza. Numva isoni mu mwuga wanje".

Hari abandi nabo babonye ko ikibazo ca mbere umusomyi yanditse "Ask Marilyn" nticigeze kimenyesha neza ko umunyamakuru yategerezwa kwemerera abantu guhindura canke kwerekana urugi rumwe.

Muri "Let's Make a Deal", Monty Hall yari afise akaryo ko kwemerera abahiganwa guhindura canke kudahindura, mbere wewe akaba yaranashitse kure mu vyo yabemereye: kwemerera amafaranga abahinganwa mu kubahimiriza kugumana ivyo bahisemwo ubwa mbere, kandi uko yabemerera menshi, niko yahimiriza abahiganwa guhindura urugi no kunanirwa.

Kwemerera bose ubushimwe buzimvye, nk’imodoka, ntabwo yari yo ntumbero y’ikiganiro. Hanyuma M. Hall yari afise ibintu mu minwe.