Koko hoba habura amezi make ngo Irani ihingure ikibombe ruhonyanganda c'ubumara?

Israel yateye ibibanza bitari bike muri Irani, isenyura ikigo co gutunganya ubutare bwa uranium c'ahitwa Natanz yongera igandagura intwazangabo nkuru nkuru za gisirikare hamwe n'abahinga mu vya nikleyeri Tehran.

Inyuma y'umupfunda wa mbere w'ibitero mw'ijoro ryo ku wa kane, umushikiranganji wa Irani ajejwe imigenderanire yariyamirije ibitero vy'ubugome vya Israel ku bigo "vya nikleyeri bifise intumbero y'amahoro" vy'igihugu ciwe. Kuva ico gihe Irani imaze nayo gukora ibitero vyo mu kirere mu kwihora Israel.

Abbas Araghchi avuga ko ibikorwa vya Natanz vyari bisanzwe bikurikiranirwa hagufi n'ishiramahwe mpuzamakungu rijejwe gukurikirana ibijanye n'amasoko ntanganguvu ya nikleyeri (International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA), kandi ko ibi bitero kuri iki kigo bishobora guteza akaga k'imyuka mibi y'ubumara (radiation).

Ariko, umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Israel Benjamin Netanyahu avuga ko iki gitero cari nkenerwa mu ntumbero yo "guhagarika ibikorwa vya Irani bibangamiye ukubaho kwa Israel".

Avuga ko Israel yafashe ingingo kubera "ari nka hamwe itohagarikwa, Irani ishobora guhingura ikirwanisho ruhonyanganda c'ubumara mu kanya gato cane".

"Bishobora kuba mu kiringo c'umwaka umwe. Bishobora kuba mu mezi make cane", ni ko agabisha.

Biravugwa cane ko Israel itunze ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara, n'aho itavyemeza canke ngo ibihakane.

Hoba hari icemezo ko Irani yariko irahingura ikibpmbe ca nikleyeri ?

Igisirikare ca Israel kivuga ko cari cegeranije amakuru menshi y'igendereza yerekana "intambwe ifadika" Irani yari imaze gushikako "mu gukora ibikoresho bishobora gukoreshwa mu guhingura ikibombe ruhonyanganda c'ubumara".

Kelsey Davenport, umukuru w'igisata kijejwe guhagarika ikwirakwira ry'ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara mw'ishirahamwe rya Amerika rijejwe kugenzura ibirwanisho, Arms Control Association, avuga ko umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Israel aterekanye " ikimenyetso na kimwe gitomoye canke gikomeye cerekana ko Irani iri hafi yo guhingura ikirwanisho ca nikleyeri".

"Iran imaze amezi iri ku rwego rwa hafi cane rwo gushobora guhingura igisasu ca nikleyeri", niko uno mupfasoni yabwiye BBC, ashaka kuvuga ko igihe Iran yobishakira yoshobora gutunganya ibikoresho nkenerwa vyo guhingura iki gisasu mu kiringo gito cane.

"Muri iyo nzira nyene, amakuru avuga ko Irani yoshobora guhingura ikirwanisho ca nikleyeri mu mezi make si mashasha".

Avuga ko bimwe mu bikorwa vya nikleyeri vya Irani bishobora gukoreshwa mu guhingura ikibombe, ariko ibigo vy'igendereza vya Amerika vyarabonye ko Irani itari mu bikorwa bikomeye vyo guhingura ikirwanisho.

Mu kwa gatatu, umukuru w'igisata c'igihugu kijejwe igendereza Tulsi Gabbard yabwiye inama nshingamateka ya Amerika ko ububiko bwa uranium bwa Irani "bwageze ku rwego rwo hejuru cane", kandi ko ata "gihugu na kimwe kidatunze ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara cari bwigere gishika ku rugero nk'uru".

Ariko yavuze kandi ko igendereza rya Amerika "ribandanya rikurikiranira hagufi ko Irani itohava ihingura ikirwanisho ca nikleyeri, kandi n'umutegetsi w'ikirenga [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei ntaratanga uruhusha rwo kubandanya umugambi wo guhingura ibirwanisho va nikleyeri yahagaritse mu 2003".

Umupfasoni Davenport yongerako ati: "Nimba koko Netanyahu yari afise impamvu yonyene yo guhagarika Iran gutunga ikirwanisho ca nikleyeri, Israel iba yarahaye Amerika ayo makuru y'igendereza, kandi igitero ca mbere cari kuba cakozwe ku bigo vyose nyamukuru vya nikleyeri vya Irani".

Mu ndwi iheze, ishirahamwe IAEA ryavuze mu cegeranyo caryo giheruka ko Irani yari yegeranije uranium itunganijwe ikwiye gushika ku rugero rwa 60% - aha hakaba habura gato gusa kugira ngo ishike ku rugero rwa 90% - mu nzira yo guhingura ibibombe ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara icenda. Iki "cari ikibazo gikomeye cane", niko kivuga.

Iri shirahamwe rivuga kandi ko ritashobora kwizeza ko koko umugambi wa nikleyeri wa Irani wari uw'amahoro gusa, kubera Irani itashaka gukorana n'abari bajejwe amatohoza ku duce twa uranium twatowe n'abagenzuzi ku bibanza bitatu vya nikleyeri bitari vyamenyeshejwe.

Ni ibiki bizwi ku mugambi wa nikleyeri wa Irani?

Irani yamye ivuga ko umugambi wayo wa nikleyeri wose ari uw'amahoro kandi ko itigeze irondera guhingura ikirwanisho ruhonyanganda c'ubumara.

Hagati aho, amatohoza yamaze imyaka cumi y'ishirahamwe IAEA yaratoye ivyemezo ko Irani yakoze "ibikorwa bitari bike bifise intego yo guhingura igiturika ca nikleyeri" kuva mu myaka ya nyuma ya 1980 gushika mu mwaka wa 2003, igihe ibikorwa vyariko birangurwa mu mugambi wawi uzwi nka "Project Amad" vyahagarikwa.

Irani yarabandanije n'ibikorwa bimwe bimwe gushika mu 2009 – igihe ibihugu vy'uburengero vyatora ko hariko hubakwa ikigo co mu kuzimu c'ahitwa Fordo co gutunganirizamwo ubutare bwa uranium – ariko inyuma y'aho nta "kintu kigaragara" cerekana ko hari ibirwanisho vyariko birahingurwa, nk'uko iri shirahamwe ribivuga.

Mu 2015, Irani yarashitse ku masezerano n'ibihugu rutura bitandatu aho yemeye ingingo zafashwe zo kubaganya ibikorwa vyayo vya nikleyeri, yongera yemerera abagenzuzi ba IAEA gukurikiranira hagufi ibikorwa vyayo hanyuma nayo igatezurirwa ibihano vyari biyimugaje.

Ingingo nyamukuru zari zijanye n'ibikorwa vyayo vyo gutunganya uranium ikoreshwa mu guhingura ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara.

Ariko Perezida Donald Trump wa Amerika yarivumbuye muri aya masezerano mu kiringo ciwe ca mbere mu 2018, avuga ko ata kintu kinini aya masezerano yari yakoze mu kuyihagarika mu nzira yayo yo guhingura ikibombe, aca asubizaho ibihano.

Irani yaciye yihora mu kurenga kuri aya masezerano – cane cane ku bijanye no gutunganya uranium.

Muri aya masezerano ya nikleyeri, Irani ntiyari yemerewe gutunganya uranium ku kigo ca Fordo mu kiringo c'imyaka 15. Ariko mu 2021, Irani yaciye isubira gutangura ibikorwa vyo gutunganya uranium aho yageze ku rugero rwa 20%.

Ku wa kane, inama nyobozi ya IAEA igizwe n'ibihugu 35 yatangaje ku mugaragaro ko ku ncuro ya mbere mu myaka 20, Irani yarenze ku nshingano zayo zijanye no guhagarika ikwirakwira ry'ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara.

Irani yavuze ko izokwishura kuri iki cemezo mu kwubaka ikigo gishasha co gutunganirizamwo uranium mu "kibanza gikingiwe", no mu gusubiriza amamashini ya kera akoreshwa mu gutunganya uranium, iyasubirize n'amamashini agezweho ku kigo ca Fordo.

Israel yononye ibigo vya Irani vya nikleyeri ku rugero rungana gute?

Ku wa gatanu, igisirikare ca Israel cavuze ko ibitero vyaco vya mbere vyononye ikigo co mu kuzimu ca Natanz, hamwe kandi n'ibikorwa remezo bihambaye vyatuma iki kigo gikora.

Umukuru wa IAEA, Rafael Grossi, yabwiye akanama ka ONU kajejwe umutekano kw'isi ko igice kiri hejuru c'ikigo ca Natanz — kizwi nka PFEP — casambutse. Nta cerekana ko igice co mu kuzimu catewe, ariko icika ry'umuyagankuba rishobora kuba ryarononye amamashini ari yo, nk'uko abivuga.

Ikogo ca Amerika Institute for Science and International Security kivuga ko isamburwa rya PFEP ari ikintu gikomeye kuko iki kigo cakoreshwa mu gutunganya uranium ku rugero rwa 60% hamwe no guhingura amamashini agezweho.

Umupfasoni Davenport avuga kandi ko ibi bitero kuri Natanz bishobora gutuma Irani izokenera igihe kirekire kugira ngo ishobore gutunganya uranium ikwiye kugira ngo ishike ku rugero rwo guhingura igisasu ca nikleyeri, ariko ko hakiri kare kugira ngo umuntu abone ingaruka zavyo.

Asigura ati: "Nta shusho itomoye y'ingene Irani yoshobora gusubira kuhakorera ibikorwa ubu bwa vuba, canke nimba Irani yarashoboye kwimura uranium, gushika IAEA yemerewe gushika kuri ico kigo".

Mu masaha yitereye yo ku wa gatanu, Irani yamenyesheje IAEA ko Israel yateye ikigo ca Fordo hamwe n'ica Isfahan.

Igisirikare ca Israel cavuze ko igitero ca Isfahan "cabomoye ikibanza co guhingura uranium y'icuma, ibibanza vyo guhinduriramwo uranium, ama laboratwari, n'izindi nyubakwa nkenerwa".

Davenport ati: "Igihe cose ikigo ca Fordo kizoba kigikora, Irani iracafise ubushobozi bwo guhingura ikirwanisho ruhonyanganda c'ubumara. Iracafise ububasha bwo kwongereza uranium itunganijwe gushika ku rugero rwo guhingura ibirwanisho kuri ico kigo, canke naho ikimurira uranium mu kibanza kitazwi".

Umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Israel avuga kandi ko ibi bitero bizobandanya "igihe cose bizoba ngombwa gushika aka kaga gatujijwe burundu".

Ariko ibi ntibizokunda, nk'uko Davenport abivuga.

Ati: "Ibitero birashobora gusambura ibibanza no kwica abahinga ariko ntibishobora gusambura ubumenyi mu vya nikleyeri bwa Irani. Irani irashobora gusubira kwubaka, kandi vuba cane ubu gusumba uko vyari bimeze kera kubera intambwe ikomeye yayo mu gutunganya uranium".