Ukraine - Russia: Inzira zitanu intambara ishobora gufata mu 2023

Intambara yo muri Ukraine iri hafi yo kwinjira mu mwaka ugira kabiri. Ni mu gihe Perezida Vladimir Putin wewe yayiharurira imisi iri ku rushi, ariko ibintu bikaba vyagiye kumuhindukana mu nyuma. Twabajije abahinga batari bake ba gisirikare ico biyumvira ku kungene ibintu bishobora kugenda ku rubuga mu 2023.

Irashobora kurangira mu mwaka buca utangura, gute – irashobora kurangirira ku rubuga rw’intambara canke ku meza y’ibiganiro? Canke ishobora no kubandanya gushika mu 2024?

'Igitero c’Uburusiya inyuma y’igihe c’ubukonje kirashobora kwereka iyo ibintu bitera bija'

Michael Clarke, umwe mu ndongozi z’ikigo Strategic Studies Institute, Exeter, mu Bwongereza

Abo bose barondera gutera ikindi gihugu aho ari ho hose mu ceru kinini cane ca Eurasie/Eurasia (ijambo rikoreshwa ku Bulaya na Aziya ubifatiye hamwe nk’umugabane umwe hakuyifata nk’imigabane ibiri), amaherezo baza kwisanga binjiye mu gihe c’ubukonje bakiri mu ntambara.

Napoleon, Hitler na Stalin bose bisanze ibisirikare vyabo bihangana n’ubukonje budasanzwe, kandi n’ubu – mu gihe igitero ciwe kigenda gisubira inyuma ku rubuga - Vladimir Putin ariko ahatira ingabo ziwe kuguma muri ubwo bukonje kugira ngo barindirireho igitero gishasha inyuma y’igihe c’ubukonje.

Impande zompi zirakeneye akaruhuko ariko abanya-Ukraine nibo bafise uburyo buhagije kandi bafise n’ishaka ryo kubandanya urugamba, aha rero tukaba twiteze ko bashobora kubandanya basatira, nibura mu karere ka Donbas.

Mu micungararo ya Kreminna na Svatove bari hafi yo gushika ku ntambwe ikomeye ishobora gutuma ingabo z’Uburusiya zisubira inyuma ku birometero birenga 60, hafi y’ahatanguriye igitero muri Ruhuhuma (2).

Kyiv ntizokwishimira guhagarika mu gihe ibona intsinzi yegereje. Hagati aho, ibitero vya Ukraine bishobora guhagarara mu bumanuko bushira uburengero, inyuma yo kwisubiza Kherson.

Kujabuka uruzi Dnipro uja mu buseruko mu ntumbero yo gusatira inzira y’Uburusiya hamwe n’ibarabara ry’indarayi ribufatanya n’akarere ka Crimée/Crimea bishobora gusaba vyinshi. Ariko ntawofata ko Kyiv idashobora gukora igitero gishasha giturumbuka.

Mu 2023, ikintu nyamukuru kizoba gishingiye ku gitero c’Uburusiya inyuma y’igihe c’ubukonje. Putin yaremeje ko hafi abasirikare 50.000 bashasha baherutse kwinjizwa mu gisirikare bari bamaze gushika ku rubuga rw’intambara; abandi 250.000 muri abo baherutse kwinjizwa bakaba bari mu nyigisho kugira ngo barungikiwe ku rugamba mu mwaka uza.

Nta kindi gisigaye atari intambara yindi gushika ico izo ngabo nshasha z’Uburusiya zimaze kigaragariye ku rubuga rw’intambara.

Agahengwe gatoya ariko kadashemeye ni co kindi kintu conyene gishoboka. Putin aratomora neza ko atazigera ahagarika. Kandi Ukraine nayo iramenyesha neza ko ikirwanira ukubaho kwayo.

'Ukraine izobohoza ubutaka bwayo'

Andrei Piontkovsky, umuhinga akorera i Washington DC

Ukraine izotsinda mu kwisubiza ubutavogerwa bwayo bwose bitarenze inyuma y’igihe c’ubukonje bwa 2023. Ibintu bibiri bituma twiyumvira gutyo.

Ica mbere ni intego, ishaka n’ubutwari vy’igisirikare ca Ukraine ndetse n’igihugu cose ca Ukraine, bitari bwigere bibaho muri kahise k’intambara ya none.

Ikindi ni uko, inyuma y’imyaka itari mike umutegetsi w’Uburusiya atwaza umukazo, Uburengero bwahavuye bubona uburemere bw’ibibazo bibuhanze muri kazoza. Ibi birerekanwa neza n’ijambo riheruka gushikirizwa n’umunyamabanga mukuru wa OTAN/NATO, Jens Stoltenberg.

"Igiciro c’ibiriko biraba tukiriha mu mafaranga. Mu gihe igiciro c’ibiriko biraba abanya-Ukraine bo bakiriha mu maraso. Mu gihe ibihugu birangwa n’ubutegetsi bw’agahotoro vyobona ko inguvu ari zo zishikana ku co umuntu ashaka, twese bizodutwara uburyo bwinshi gusumba. Kandi isi izohinduka ibe isi ibangamye kuri twebwe twese”.

Igihe nyaco c’intsinzi ya Ukraine vyanse bikunze kizovana n’umuvuduko OTAN izofata mu gutanga ibirwanisho nyavyo bishobora guhindura ibintu ku rubuga ( ibimodoka ntamenwa, indege, misire ziraswa kure).

Niteze ko Melitopol izoba urubuga rw’intambara rukomeye mu mezi ari imbere (canke kumbure amayinga). Mu gihe abanya-Ukrane bokwisubiza Melitopol, vyoca biborohera gutera baja ku kiyaga Azov, kugira ngo bace amayira ashikana uburyo n’itumatumanako muri Crimea.

Ivyo kumanika amaboko kw’Uburusiya bizokwumvikanwako mu biganiro vy’abahinga inyuma y’uko abanya-Ukraine bateye intambwe zidasanzwe ku rubuga rw’intambara.

Ibihugu bizoba bitsinze intambara - Ukraine, Ubwongereza, Amerika – bizoca bishinga iyindi nteguro nshasha y’umutekano mpuzamakungu.

'Ivyo kurangira biri kure nk’ukwezi'

Barbara Zanchetta, igisata kijejwe ivyigwa vy’intambra kw’ishure kaminuza, King's College London

Vladimir Putin yari yiteze ko Ukraine itari kuvyura umutwe ngo ihangane n’iki gihugu kibanyi ca rutura, kandi ko ata bindi bihugu vyari kwivanga mu ntambara. Aha yaharuye nabi, ivyatumye intambara ifata igihe kirekire, aho ivy’uko ishobora kurangira biri kure nk’ukwezi.

Igihe c’ubukonje ntikizokworoha, mu gihe ibitero vy’Uburusiya ku bigo remezo birondera guhagarika ishaka no guca intege abanyagihugu basanzwe barushe. Ariko uravye ingene abanya-Ukraine bihagarayeko bakivyukiranya ni ibintu bidasanzwe. Bazokwihagararako. Intambara izobandanya, yongere ibandanye.

Hari umwijima ku vyerekeye ivy’ibiganiro. Kugira ngo hashobore kuba amasezerano y’amahoro, ni uko ibintu nyamukuru bisabwa nibura n’uruhande rumwe bihinduka. Nta kimenyetso na kimwe cerekana ko ibi bishoboka, canke ko bizohava biba ubu bwa vuba.

None bizohera gute?

Uburyo intambara izotwara, haba ku bintu canke ku bantu, birashobora guca intege abanyaporitike b’Uburusiya. Rero, urupfunguruzo ruri hagati mu Burusiya.

Mu ntambara zo muri kahise zabayemwo uguharura nabi bikagira uruhara rukomeye, nk’intambara yo muri Vietnam kuri Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, canke Afghanistan kuri Reta zunze Ubumwe z’Abasoviyeti, zaje kurangira nk’uku. Ibintu vyahavuye bihinduka muri poritike y’igihugu cakoze ibiharuro nabi, bituma ciyomora.

Ariko ibi vyoba gusa mu gihe ibihugu vy’uburengero vyohagarara kw’izima bikabandanya bifata mu mugongo Ukraine, mu gihe hagati mu gihugu igitsure kibandanya kubera uburyo iyi ntambara iriko iratwara.

Ikibabaje ni uko izobandanya ari intambara ndende ya poritike, y’ubutunzi n’iya gisirikare aho buri ruhande rutarota rurekura. Mbere birashoboka ko izoba ikibandanya gushika mu mpera ya 2023.

'Nta yandi maherezo atari uko Uburusiya butsindwa'

Ben Hodges, uwahoze arongoye ingabo za Amerika i Bulaya

Haracari kare kwiyumvira idefire y’intsinzi i Kyiv ariko ubu Ukraine niyo ifise ibintu mu minwe kandi nta nkeka kuri jewe ko izotsinda iyi ntambara, kumbure mu 2023.

Ibintu bizogenda bukebuke muri kino gihe c’ubukonje, ariko nta nkeka ko ingabo za Ukraine zizovyifatamwo neza gusumba iz’Uburusiya kubera ibikoresho vyose vyo guhangana n’ubukonje bitangwa n’Ubwongereza, Canada n’Ubudagi.

Gushika mu kwa mbere, Ukraine izoba ihagaze neza kugira ngo ishobore gutangura igice ca nyuma c’urugamba, iki naco kikaba ico kubohoza Crimée.

Turazi neza kuva muri kahise ko intambara ari igipimo c’ishaka n’uburyo. Ndavye ishaka riranga abanyagihugu n’abasirikare ba Ukraine, n’ingene ikibazo c’uburyo kigenda kimera neza ku muvuduko udasanzwe, nta yandi maherezo mbona atari ugutsindwa kw’Uburusiya.

Uburusiya kuvana ingabo muri Kherson vyatumye nshika kuri uno mwanzuro. Ubwa mbere nk’icongerereza intege abanyagihugu ba Ukraine, ubwa kabiri nk’ikintu giteje urubwa Kremlin, hanyuma ica gatatu gutuma ingabo za Ukraine zihagarara neza ku rugamba – ubu ibirwanisho Ukraine ifise bikaba biyishoboza kwinjira neza muri Crimée.

Ndizera ko 2023 uzorangira Crimée iri mu minwe ya Ukraine n’aho hashobora kuba amasezerano kanaka ashobora kwemerera Uburusiya kuvana bukebuke ingabo zabwo zirwanira mu mazi muri Sevastopol … mbere igikorwa kigashobora kuzorangirana n’amasezerano (nko mu 2025) yari ahari imbere y’uko Uburusiya bwiyegurira Crimée mu nzira iteye kubiri n’amategeko.

Utwigoro two gusanura tuzoba turiko turabandanya ku nkengera z’ikiyaga ca Azov, harimwo n’ibivuko bikomeye vya Mariupol na Berdyansk, hanyuma gusubira kwugurura umugazo wa Crimée y’Uburaruko uvana amazi muri Dnipro uyatwara muri Crimée kikazoba ari ikindi gikorwa nyamukuru kizokwitabwaho.

'Mwitege cane ko ibintu bishobora kuba uko bimeze'

David Gendelman, umuhinga wa gisirikare ari i Tel Aviv

Aho kwibaza “ingene ibintu bizorangira” ng’ibi ivyo buri ruhande rwipfuza gushikako mu gice gikurikira c’intambara.

Ica kabiri conyene c’ingabo 300.000 z’Uburusiya ziherutse kwinjizwa mu gisirikare nizo zimaze kujanwa ku rubuga rw’intambara. Abandi basigaye, bari kumwe n’abandi bavanywe muri Kherson baha Uburusiya amahirwe yo gutangura ikindi gitero.

Intara za Luhansk na Donetsk zizobandanya ziri mu maboko y’Uburusiya ariko hari amahirwe make ko Uburusiya bushobora gushika ku ntambwe ikomeye nk’iyo kubandanya amaja mu bumanuko gushika mu karere ka Pavlograd kugira ngo bagote ingabo za Ukraine.

Igishoboka cane ni uko amayeri akoreshwa ubu ari yo ashobora kubandanya – kubandanya bacuvya buhoro buhoro ingabo za Ukraine mu duce duto duto hamwe no kubandanya batera intambwe buke buke, nko mu turere twa Bakhmut na Avdiivka, bigashobora kugenda gutyo nyene mu karere ka Svatove-Kreminna.

Kubandanya ibitero ku bigo ntanganguvu vya Ukraine hamwe n’ibindi bitero kuri Ukraine bayiturutse inyuma ni vyo bizorangiza ino ntambara yo gusambura.

Ingabo za Ukraine zitari nke kandi ziridegemvya inyuma y’aho abarusiya baviriye muri Kherson. Kuri bo, ubu inzira nyamukuru ni iyo gutera baja mu bumanuko, gushika muri Melitopol canke Berdyansk, mu ntumbero yo guca inzira ijana muri Crimée. Iyo yoba ari intsinzi ikomeye ya Ukraine, kandi ni naco gituma Abarusiya bariko barongereza inguvu muri Melitopol.

Ukraine kandi ishobora guhitamwo kurondera Svatove – mu gihe bokwisubiza ako karere vyoba bibangamiye cane uruhande rwose rw’uburaruko ku rugamba rw’Uburusiya.

Ikibazo gikomeye ni ukumenya ingabo Ukraine ifise ubu kandi zishobora gukora ico gitero ingene zingana muri iki gihe, n’ikirangaminsi Jenerali Zaluzhnyi afise mu nteguro ziwe cerekana ingabo z’integabizoza ziriko zirategurwa kandi zizoba zimeze magabo mu kwezi kumwe, mu mezi abiri canke atatu uhereye ubu, harimwo abantu, ibiduga vy’intambara n’ibigwanisho biremereye.

Mu gihe urwondo ruzoba rukamutse, niho tuzoronka inyishu kuri iki kibazo. Kandi iyi nyishu niyo izotwegereza buke buke ku “kungene bizorangira”.

Aba bahinga bahiswemwo kubera ubuhinga bwabo mu vya gisirikare n’ivyiyumviro vyabo bitandukanye