Makoma uku da Syria za ta iya faɗawa ƙarƙashin gwamnatin 'yantawaye

Kawo ƙarshen mulkin iyalan Assad na gomman shekaru a Syria bayan ƙungiyoyi ƙarƙashin jagorancin Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) sun ƙwace iko da ƙasar, ya jawo tambayoyi game da makomar ƙasar.

Jagoran HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, ya yi alƙawarin haɗa kan Syria, amma ana fargaba tare da tambayar ko zai iya samun nasara.

Geir Pedersen, wakilin Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya na musamman a Syria, ya nanata buƙatar haɗin kai tsakanin ƴanƙasar.

Ganin yadda abubuwa suke sauyawa a ƙasar, hasashen yadda makomar ƙasar za ta kasance zai yi wahalar gaske.

Amma BBC ta zanta da masana kuma sun kawo wasu makoma uku da suke ganin ƙasar za ta iya faɗawa a hannun sabuwar gwamnatin.

1. Haɗaɗɗiyar Syria

Abin da ake tunanin zai fi kyau shi ne HTS ta ba jam'iyyun siysasa damar shiga a dama da su a ƙasar.

Ƙasar za ta samu haɗin kai bayan daɗewa ana gwabza yaƙi, wanda hakan ne zai sa a kauce wa ramakon gayya kamar yadda aka yi a wasu jihohi, wanda zai iya kawo hargitsi a ƙasar.

Jolani dai ya yi kira ga haɗin kai da girmama juna a tsakanin ɓangarori da dama na ƙasar.

"A zahiri, yanzu gane yadda makomar ƙasar za ta kasance zai yi wahalar gaske. HTS ta bayyana shirinta na gudanar da mulkin riƙo tare da girmama juna da aminci, amma yanayin ƙasar sai a hankali a yanzu," in ji Christopher Phillips, wanda farfesan diflomasiyya ne a jami'ar Queen Mary da ke Burtaniya, kuma masani kan Gabas ta Tsakiya.

A kudancin ƙasar, ƙungiyar ƴanbindiga - wadda ba ta taɓa amincewa da mulkin Assad ba - zai yi wahala su bi sabuwar gwamnatin.

A gabashi, akwai sauran ƴan ƙungiyar IS waɗanda suke da matuƙar hatsari, har ta kai Amurka na musu luguden wuta.

Sannan ta ɓangaren arewa maso gabas kuma, akwai ƙungiyar ƙurdawa da ke samun goyon bayan Amurka.

Farfesa Joseph Daher, malami a jami'ar Lausanne da ke Switzerland, kuma marubucin littafin 'Syria After the Uprisings', ya ce da wahala a iya samar da haɗaɗɗiyar ƙasar Syria a yanzu.

Daher da wasu masanan suna ganin zai yi wahala, inda suka ce tun farko jagoran ƴantawayen ya fara maganganu masu karo da juna.

"Da farko Jonali ya ce firaministan tsohuwar gwamnatin ne zai jagoranci gwamnatin riƙo, amma daga baya sai ya sanar da sanar da Mohammed al-Bashir a matsayin firaministan."

Sai dai, duk da haka, Daher ya yi amannar HTS za ta sha wahalar iya riƙe ƙasar, "duk da ƙoƙarinta na jawo kowa a tafi tare."

2. Gwamnatin HTS mai cikakken iko

Akwai fargabar HTS za ta kafa gwamnati ne na kama-karya irin na Assad.

Jolani ya riga ya kafa sansani a Idlib - inda a baya ya kasance yankin da ƴantawaye suke da ƙarfi, kuma da ke tattare da kusan mutum miliyan huɗu waɗanda mafi yawanci ƴangudun hijira ne - inda gwamnatin ƙungiyar National Salvation ke gudanar da mulki ƙarƙashin shari'ar musulunci.

Jola ya ce HTS za ta yi mulki mai inganci ta hanyar ƙarfafa haɗin kai da girmama buƙatar mutane.

Amma a mulkin da suke yi a Idlib, ana zargin suna tauye haƙƙin wasu ƙungiyoyin. Sannan a daidai lokacin da HTS take yunƙurin kutsawa babban birnin ƙasar a ranar 27 ga Nuwamba ne aka fara zanga-zanga a Idlib, inda ƙungiyoyin ƙasar suka zargi HTS da kama-karya.

A game da zargin kama-karya, HTS ta bayana wasu gyare-gyare, ciki har da dakatar da aikin dakarun ƙungiyar na musamman da ake zargi da tauye haƙƙin mutane, sannan ta buɗe sashen sauraron ƙorafe-ƙorafen mutane. Amma duk da haka wasu na ganin gyare-gyare ne kawai a takarda.

3. Yaƙin basasa na raba gardama

Lamarin da kuma zai iya zama mafi ƙazancewa shi ne yiwuwar Syria ta koma cikin hargitsi, kamar yadda ƙasar ta tsinci kanta bayan zanga-zangar Arab Spring.

Bayan hamɓarar da Muammar Gaddafi na Libya da Saddam Hussein na Iraq, ba tare da tsarin waɗanda za su maye gurbinsu ba, sai ƙasashen suka koma hannun shugabannin da suka sha fama da rikice-rikicen ramako da rigingimu da yaƙe-yaƙe.

A wannan yanayin da ake ciki, gumurzu tsakanin ƙungiyoyin Syria masu bindiga zai iya rikiɗewa zuwa tarzoma, wanda zai iya jefa yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya baki ɗaya cikin hargitsi.

Wakilin BBC Arabic, Feras Kilani, ya ruwaito cewa jawabin al-Bashir na farko a matsayin firaminista ya jefa tsoro a zukatan mutane.

"Jawabin sabon firaministan, wanda ya yi yana riƙe da tuta biyu - tutar juyin juya hali da wani wanda ke kama da na Taliban - ya ba mutane mamaki. Ya nuna cewa gwamnatin za ta iya bin tafarkin Taliban wajen assasa gwamnatin musulunci da ke amfani da shiri'a," in ji shi.

Daidaituwar alaƙa da ƙasashen waje

Dukkan abubuwan da aka lissafa suna da alaƙa ne da yadda ƙasashen waje suka sa hannu a ƙasar, kamar yadda masana suka bayyana.

A gomman shekaru, Assad ya yi mulki ne tare da goyon bayan Iran da Rasha. Amma Turkiyya da ƙasashen yamma da wasu ƙasashen yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya suna goyon bayan ƙungiyoyi ƴanbindiga daban-daban ƙasar.

A makonnin da suka gabata, Isra'ila ta ƙaddamar da hare-hare a kadarorin soji na Syria, inda ta tabbatar da cewa sojojinta suna aiki na musamman a ƙasar, kuma sun tsallake yankin raba-gardama ba tuddan golan.

Ta ce ta kai ɗaruruwan hare-hare tun bayan da Assad ta tsere, kuma sun "tarwatsa ma'adinar makaman ƙasar, sannan firamistan ƙasar, Benjamin Netanyahu ya gargaɗi ƴantawayen da su hana Iran "sake kafa kanta" a ƙasar.

"Yanzu da aka kifar da gwamnatin Assad, ya kamata a cire wa ƙasar takunkumin da aka ƙaƙaba mata. Ina tunanin yana da kyau tarayyar turai da Amurka su ƙara harkokin inganta tattalin arziki da taimakon gaggawa a ƙasar," in ji Daher.