Yadda yaƙin Gaza ya sauya ƙarfin iko a Gabas ta Tsakiya da ma duniya

Ƴaƙin Gaza na shekara biyu na da matuƙar tasiri ba iya ga yankin da aka gwabza shi ba, har ma da wajen yankin.

Yayin da rikicin ya bazu zuwa ƙasashen Lebanon da Syria da Iran da kuma Yemen, masu sharhi na cewa yaƙin ya sake fasalta yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya da ma dangantakar duniya.

"Bana tunanin za mu iya ƙayyade irin tasirin da yaƙin zai yi ga yankin da yadda ya sauya alaƙar ƙasashen duniya a cikin wadannan shekaru biyu,'' a cewar Dokta Julie Norman, ƙwararriya a fannin siyasar da alaƙar ƙasashen duniya a Jami'ar London.

Mummunar harin da Hamas ta kai wa Isra'ila ranar 7 ga watan Oktaban 2023 shi ne mafi muni a tarihin ƙasar. Kusan mutum 1,200 aka kashe tare da yin garkuwa da wasu 251.

'Mummunan tasiri'

Isra'ilaa - wadda ke iko da sararin samaniyar Gaza, da ruwayen da suke kewayeta da kuma kan iyakokinta - ta mayar da mummunan martanin soji ta hanyar yaƙi a Gaza - lamarin da ya yi sanadiyyar kisan falasɗinawa fiye da 68,000 cikin shekara biyu da aka yi ana yaƙin, a cewar ma'aikatar lafiyar Gaza, wadda MDD ke amincewa da alƙalumanta.

Dr Norman ta ce abin d ayaƙin ya haifar a Gaza ya zarta ''kwatance'' kuma zai ɗauki tsawon lokaci ba a manta da shi ba.

Haka ma ya ce harin da Hamas ta kai Isra'ila tare da yin garkuwa da wasu, ya sauya al'amura a duniya''.

Ta ƙara da cewa harin 7 ga watan Oktoba ya haifar da "mummunan tasiri'' a yankin.

Yayin da Isra'ila ta mayar da martani da hare-hare ta sama a Gaza, ƙungiyoyin masu ɗauke da makamai masu ƙawance da Hamas sun ƙaddamar da hare-hare kan Isra'ila, kamar Hezbollah daga Lebonon da kuma ƙungiyar Houthi daga Yemen.

Tare da Syria da Hamas, waɗannan ƙungiyoyi sun daɗe suna ƙawance yayin da IKran ke mara musu baya da makamai da kuɗi inda ake yi musu laƙabi da ''ƙawancen ƴan turjiya''.

Isra'ila ta jima tana fama da waɗannan ƙungiyoyi tare da ƙoƙarin kauce musu, a cewar Elliott Abrams, wani ɗan siyasa a Amurka da ya yi aiki hukumar manufofin Amurka na waje tare da shugabannin Amurka uku.

Amma bayan harin 7 ga watan Oktoba, ya ce Isra'ila ta fahimce cewa tarewar ba za ta yi aiki ba.

"Don haka ta kai wa Hamas hari da farko, daga nan Hezbollah, sannan kuma Iran da kanta. Wannan gagarumin canji ne ga yadda take ɗaukar tsaron ƙasarta,'' in ji shi.

A watan Satumban 2024, Isra'ila ta kitsa hari ta cikin wayoyin oba-oba na a Lebanon da ta samo su cikin sirri, da mafi yawan mayaƙan Hamas ke riƙe da su.

Daga nan kuma ta ƙara kai hare-haren boma-bomai a cikin ƙasar, sannan hare-hare ta ƙasa daga sojojinta a kudanci.

Hare-haren Isra'ila ta sama sun kashe manyan mayaƙan Hezbolla ciki har da shugaban ƙungiyar Hassan Nasrallah, tare da warzaga da dama cikin gine-ginenta da makamanta.

Wata biyu bayan nan, mayaƙan tawaye daga Syria, mai makwabtaka suka ƙaddamar da hari kan Shugaban ƙasar Bashar al-Assad, tare da hamɓarara da shi.

An kawo ƙarshen mulkinsa na shejara 24 a cikin mako biyu kacal.

Dokta Norman ta ce sauye-sauyen da aka samu a yankin, sun taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen faɗuwar gwamnatin Assad da kuma samun matsin lamba daga cikin Syria.

Rashin Hezbollah - da kuma Iran - waɗanda duka aka gurgunta, ya sa gwamnatin Assad ta rasa masu taimaka mata'', kamar yadda ta ce.

Isra'ila ta yi amfani da wanna damar wajen karya ƙarfin Syria ta yadda ba za ta iya samun ƙarfin kai mata hare-hare a gaba ba, ta hanyar kai harin boma-bomai kan sansanin sojojinta ciki har da na sama.

Sabon shugaban Syrian - wanda tsohon mai iƙirarin jihadi ne da a baya ke da alaƙa da al-Qaeda, Ahmed al-Sharaa, ya ce gwamnatinsa ba za ta ci gaba da faɗa da Isra'ila ba, kuma Syria ba za ta bari a yi amfani da ita ba wajen kai wa Isra'ila hari.

Barazanar yaƙi mai ƙarfi tsakanin Isra'ila da Iran ta daɗe tana ci gaba da wanzuwa a Gabas ta Tsakiya tsawon shekaru da dama.

Amma har zuwa lokacin, tarin makaman Hezbollah - gami da makamai masu linzami masu cin dogon zango - sun hana Isra'ila kai wa cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran hari.

"Isra'ila da Iran sun shafe shekaru suna fafatawa da juna ta hanyar amfani da wasu ko sari ka noƙe, amma babu ɗayansu da ya taɓa kai hari kai tsaye ga ɗayan," in ji Mista Abrams.

Wannan ya canza lokacin da tashin hankali ya rikiɗe zuwa musayar hare-hare ta sama.

Waɗannan sun faru ne a watan Afrilun 2024 da Oktoba 2024, da kuma a watan Yunin 2025 lokacin da Isra'ila ta kai hari kan wuraren nukiliya da sojoji a Iran, wanda ya haifar da yaƙi na kwanaki 12.

Amurka ta shiga cikin yaƙin, inda ta jefa manyan bama-bamai masu ƙarfi kan cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran ɗin.

Faɗin tasirin rikici

Yaƙin ya haifar da tasiri mai faɗi. Rasha, wata ƙawar Iran, ta rasa wata babar ƙawa a Gabas ta Tsakiya bayan faɗuwar gwamnatin Assad.

Shugaban Rasha, Vladimir Putin da Shugaba Sharaa sun kasance a bambantan ɓangarori a lokacin yaƙin basasar Syria da aka zubar da jini, inda Rasha ta taimaka wa Assad.

Rasha na da manyan sansanonin soji biyu a Syria, waɗanda suka taka muhimmiyar rawa a ayyukan sojojin hayar Rasha a Afirka.

Kawo yanzu ba a sani ba ko al-Sharaa zai bar waɗannan sansanoni su ci gaba da aiki.

'Ƙarin masu shiga tsakani'

Turkiyya ta kasance babbar mai shiga tsakani wajen cimma yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta a Gaza, tare da Masar da Qatar.

Qatar ta kasance babbar mai shiga tsakani, inda take bayar da mafaka ga shugabannin Hamas, sannan ita ce ƙasar da sojojin Amurka suka fi yawa a Gabas ta Tsakiya.

A Satumban 2025, Isra'ila ta kai hare-hare ta sama kan shugabannin Hamas a Doha, babban birnin Qatar, lamarin da ya fusata Qatar tare da haifar da fargabar cewa yarjejeniyar Gaza na cikin hatsari.

Kodayek, Mista Abrams ya yi amanna cewa ya – ya keta alfarmar Qatar - wada babbar ƙawar Amurka ce a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya.

Mayar da Isra'ila 'saniyar ware'

Yarjejeniyar tsagaita wutar da aka cimma a watan Oktoban, na zuwa ne bayan da ƙasashen duniya suka matsa wa Isra'ila lamba kan hana shigar da tallafi cikin Gaza, lamarin da ya ƙara dagula lamurra a yankin.

A watan Agusta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta tabbatar da wanzuwar yunwa a birnin Gaza da kewaye, wanda Isra'ial ta bayana da ''tsagoron ƙarya''.

Wata guda bayan haka kwamitin da MDD ta kafa ya ce Isra'ila ta aika kisan ƙare-dangi kan Falasɗinawa a Gaza, sai Isra'ila a cikin wani rahoto ta ƙaryata iƙirarin da cewa ''an jirkita binciken tare da cusa ƙarya a ciki''.

Tun shekarar 1967, Falasɗinawa - da suka haɗa da na Gaza da na Gaɓar Yamma -MDD ke ɗaukarsu amatsayin waɗanda Isra'ila ta mamaye.

Bayan cimma yarjejeniyar tsagaita wutar a Oktoba, masu sharhin uku sun ce har yanzu ba a san makomar abubuwa da dama ba - kama daga raba Hamas da makamansu da samar da kuɗi jami'an tsaro ga Gaza, zuwa yiyuwar amince da ƙasar Falasɗinu.

Amma duk da haka yankin ya samu gagarumin ''sauyi'', a cewar Dokta Norman.