Hatsarin ɓarkewar yaƙi a Gabas ta Tsakiya bayan hare-haren Lebanon

Mutanen da ke yawo a Beirut, babban birnin ƙasar Lebanon na amfani da wayoyinsu cike da fargabar da kaffa-kaffa bayan hari kan na'urorin sadarwar Hezbolla.

To sai dai wata babbar fargaba da ke tunkarar yankin, ita ce ɓarkewar yaƙin tsakanin Isra'ila da ƙungiyar Hezbollah ta Lebanon mai samun goyon bayan Iran.

Mutum 37 aka kashe, yayin da wasu fiye da 2,600 suka samu raunuka bayan dubban na'urorin oba-oba na mambobin Hezbollah sun fashe ranar Laraba.

Ana kyautata zaton Isra'ila ce ta kitsa harin, to sai dai ba ta tabbatar da hakan ba. A ranar Laraba, ministan tsaron Isra'ila, Yoav Gallant ya bayyana cewa ƙasar za ta ''buɗe sabon babin yaƙi''.

Mun duba wasu abubuwan da za su iya faruwa nan gaba a Lebanon.

1. Gano lagon Hezbollah da burin Isra'ila na faɗaɗa hare-hare

Yayin da ke ƙara samun fargabar ɓarkewar yaƙi, Ministan lafiyar Lebanon, Firass Abiad ya ce Lebanon na buƙatar shirya wa mafi munin abin da zai faru.

“Ina tunanin muna buƙatar shirya wa mafi munin abin da zai biyo baya," in ji shi. "Hare-haren biyu da suka kawo mana cikin kwanaki biyu, alamu ne da nuna cewa ba su (Isra'ila) shirya wa sulhu ba''.

"Abin da na sani shi ne matsayin gwamnatinmu a bayyane yake. Tun daga rana ta farko, mun yi amanna cewa Lebanon ba ta muradin yaƙi'', in ji shi.

Ehud Yaari, wani fitaccen mai sharhin al'amuran ƙasashen Larabawa ya ce hare-haren sun nuna irin ''ƙanƙantar damar'' da Isra'ila ke da ita wajen kai hare-hare kan ƙungiyar Hezbollah da wuraren ajiyar makamanta masu linzaminta.

Gazawar tsarin sadarwar ƙungiyar ta bayyana, sannan wasu manyan kwamandojinta sun ji munanan raunuka a lokacin harin, kamar yadda ya yi bayani.

“Ba ma fatan sake maimaituwar irin wannan yanayi da ake ciki,” kamar yadda Yaari ya rubuta a shafin intanet na kafar yaɗa labaran Isra'ila ta N12 news.

“A taƙaice a iya cewa a halin yanzu ƙungiyar Hezbollah na cikin mawuyacin hali mafi muni tun ƙarewar yaƙin Lebanon na biyu a 2006''.

Wakilin sashen tsaro na BBC, Paul Adams ya ce a yanzu hankalin sojojin Isra'ila ya karkata zuwa arewacin ƙasar, yayin da ka ci gaba da gwabza yakin Gaza, to sai da kawo yanzu ba a san yadda Isra'ilar za ta tafiyar da waɗannan yaƙoƙi biyu ba, yayin da ake fargabar ɓarkewar babban yaƙi a yanƙin.

2. Ƙudurin Hezbolla na kai wa Isra'ila hari, da shirin Isra'ilar na mamayar Lebanon

Shugaban Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah ya mayar da martaninsa kan hare-haren na ranar Talata, yana mai cewa Isra'ila ta ''tsallaka iyaka''.

Ya amince cewa ƙungiyar ta fuskanci gazawa mafi muni, amma ya ce ƙarfin ƙungiyar da sadarwarta na nan daram.

Ya ƙara da cewa tuni aka ƙaddamar da bincike kan yadda lamarin ya faru.

''Za a iya kiransa da laifukan yaƙi ko ayyana yaƙi, za ka iya kiransa da duk abin da ka ga dama, saboda ya cancanci a kira shi da duka waɗannan sunaye. Wannan ita ce manufar maƙiya,'' in ji shi.

Ya ce za a ci gaba da hare-haren kan iyaka, har sai an tsagaita wuta a Gaza, yana mai ce wa mazauna arewacin Isra'ila da aka raba da muhallansu ba za a bari su koma gidajensu ba.

Amjad Iraqi mai bincike kan al'amuran yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya da Arewacin Amurka a cibiyar bincike ta Chatham House da ke Birtaniya, ya ce hare-haren na Isra'ila, tamkar aika saƙon ''tunzuri'' ne ga Hezbollah, wanda hakan zai haifar da ɓarkewar yaƙi a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya.

"A yanzu an saka ƙungiyar Hezbollah cikin matsin lamba kan yadda za ta gudanar da al'amuranta, wanda kuma hakan zai bai wa sojojin Isra'ila damar mamayar Lebanon ta ƙasa,'' in ji mista Iraqi.

Isra'ila ba ta ''samu nasara kan manyan muradunta a Gaza ba'', in ji shi.

3. Hare-haren ka iya raunana Hezbollah ta yadda rikicin ba zai yi muni ba

Wakiliyar Sashen Fasha ta BBC a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya, Nafiseh Kohnavard na birnin Beirut kuma ta kalli jawabin Hassan Nasrallah da aka yaɗa kai-tseye a birnin.

Ta ce a hakiƙin gaskiya hare-haren sun raunanan ƙungiyar, Nasrallah ya ce kira hare-haren da ''babban gwaji'' da ƙungiyar ta taɓa fuskanta a tarihi.

Hakan ya nuna tsananin yanayin da suke ciki, in ji ta, da yawa daga cikin waɗanda suka jikkata suna ɓangaren matasa masu ilimi na ƙungiyar, kuma waɗanda suke da ƙwarewar horaswar yaƙi.

Ta ƙara da cewa ko a yau an ci gaba da musayar wuta tsakanin ɓangarorin biyu.

Ba za su iya hana ƙungiyar ɗaukar matakai ba, to amma hakan zai yi tasiri, kamar yadda wakiliyar BBC ta yi ƙarin haske.

Yana da kyau a san cewa Hezbollah na da ƙawaye, kuma wadanan ƙawaye sun sha nanata cewa ba ma Hezbollah ba, ita kanta Lebanon ɗin wuri ne da ba za su yarda a taɓa ba, ire-iren waɗannan ƙawaye sun haɗa da Iran da ƙungiyoyin Shia na Iraƙi da ƙungiyar Houthi da ke Yemen.

Wani mamba a ɗaya daga cikin ƙungiyoyin tsaron da a baya-bayan nan ya yi magana da wakilinmu ya bayyana cewa za su je Lebanon domin taimaka wa Hezbolla.

Waɗanna ƙungiyoyi sun tallafa wa juna da yaƙi a Siriya na tsawon shekaru, a yanzu kuma Hezbollah na buƙatar taimakonsu.

Don haka yayin da ake ci gaba da hare-hare a Lebanon, Hezbollaha matsayinta na ƙungiya na ƙara samun goyon baya a yankin, in ji wakilin namu.

4. Harin na'urorin sadarwa ba ya cikin shirin yaƙin

Wani abin la'akarin kuma shi ne hukumar leƙen asiri ta Isra’ila, Mossad ta samar da damar amfani da na’urorin bayan harin a makwabciyarta Lebanon, in ji wakilin BBC kan harkokin tsaro Gordon Corera.

Sai dai ƙungiyar Hizbullah na shakku game da sahihancin amfani da na'urorin, don haka Mossad ta ɗauki matakin "amfani da su ko akasin haka".

Amjad Iraqi na Chatham House ya bayar da shawarar cewa aikin mayar da shafukan yanar gizo da na'urorin watsa labarai na bama-bamai ya ɗauki tsawon watanni, idan ma ba shekaru ba.

"Wasu kafofin yaɗa labarai na cewa Hezbollah na zargin cewa an yi wa sadarwar waɗannan na'urori kutse ne," in ji Mista Iraqi.

"Wasu kuma na cewa akwai wani ƙoƙari na haɗin gwiwa da ya kamata a yi, kuma alamu na nuna cewa Isra'ila za ta riƙa rage ayyukanta a Gaza, tare da karkata hankalinta zuwa ga Lebanon."