Imyaka itanu inyuma y'igandagurwa rya Soleimani yatanguje Urunani rwo Kwivuna, ubwo ruzohava rurokoka?

Isenyuka ry'intwaro ya Syria yari ishigikiwe na Irani mu kwezi guheze ryabaye akaga ku Runani rwo kwivuna (Axe de Resistance/Axis of Resistance), urunani rufise ikibanza gikomeye rukaba ari umwe mu mirwi ifise ijambo mu karere k'Ubuseruko bwo Hagati.

Mu gihe hibukwa imyaka itanu irangiye umwe mu bantu bari bakomeye cane muri uru runani, Qasem Soleimani, agandaguwe, igisata ca BBC gikoresha ururimi rw'igi-perse kirihweza kazoza k'uru runani.

Imyaka itanu iheze, ku butegetsi bwa Donald Trump, Qasem Soleimani yaratewe aragandagurwa n'igisirikare ca Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika i Baghdad, umugwa mukuru wa Iraki.

Soleimani yari arongoye ingabo zidasanzwe za Irani, Quds Force, ishami ry'ingabo zijejwe gukingira ubutegetsi bwa Kisilamu muri ico gihugu, zizwi nka Corps des Gardiens de la Révolution Islamique/Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) rijejwe ibikorwa vy'urugamba rwo hanze y'igihugu, akaba kandi yari umuntu yahaye Irani ijunja mu karere, akanategura n'imikenyuro ya gisirikare mu karere.

Amezi atatu imbere y'uko agandagurwa n'indege ya Amerika itagira umudereva (drone) ku wa 3 Nzero (1) 2020, Soleimani yari yarashikirije ijambo mw'ibanga abakuru b'ingabo za IRGC aho yavuze ku bijanye no "kwagura ibikorwa vy'Ururani rwo Kwivuna, mu ngero no mu buryo".

Bisa n'uko Soleimani we nyene ubwiwe yariko arategura urupfu rwiwe, akaba yariko arategura gutanga icegeranyo c'imyaka mirongo ibiri yari amaze arongoye ingabo za Quds.

Yagize ati: "IRGC yarateje imbere urugamba rwo kwivuna mu ngero no mu buryo, aho rwavuye ku birometero kwadarato 2000 mu bumanuko bwa Libani rugashika ku kirometero kwadarato 500.000".

Yabandanije ati: "IRGC yarashizeho ubucuti hagati y'urunani rwo kwivuna; ni ukuvuga ko yahuje Irani na Iraki, Iraki na Siria, hamwe rero na Siria na Libani. Uyu musi, ushobora gufata imodoka i Tehran ugasohokera mu micungararo y'ubumanuko bwa Beirut".

Muri Irani, Urunani rwo Kwivuna rwafatwa nka kimwe mu bikorwa nyamukuru vyaranguwe na Soleimani, ariko mu mwaka uheze, rwarasinzikajwe bikomeye.

Iciyumviro gishobora guhindura Ubuseruko bwo Hagati

Irani yatanguye kwiyagurira akarere mu ntango z'imyaka ya 1980, igihe yafasha mu gushinga umuhari Hezbollah w'aba-Shia muri Libani, mu ntumbero yo kurwanya Amerika na Israel.

Inyuma y'imyaka, umutekano muke watewe n'igitero ca Amerika muri Iraki mu 2003, impinduka zo mu bihugu vy'Abarabu, zizwi nka Printemps arabe/ Arab Spring mu 2011, hamwe n'ishingwa ry'imirwi y'aba- Sunni igendera ku vyiyumviro bikaze vy'idini rya Isilamu nk'umurwi wiyita Reta ya Kisilamu (Etat Islamique/Islamic State) vyahaye akaryo Irani ko gutsimbatara mu karere.

Irungikwa ry'ingabo za IRGC muri Syria, hamwe no kuba hari imirwi y'inyeshamba za kisilamu y'aba-Shia muri Iraki na Libani, vyatumye haba ubucuti hagati y'imirwi iri mu bihugu bitandukanye, kuva ku mipaka ya Irani gushika ku nkengera y'ikiyaga Mediterane, bwashitse no ku mbibe za Israel.

Daniel Sobelman, umwigisha kuri kaminuza Hebrew University of Jerusalem, abona ko imbere y'igitero ca Amerika mu 2003, iciyumviro co gushinga umuhora wo ku butaka hagati ya Irani n'uturere igenzura kitashoboka.

Ati: "Intambara ya Iraki yahaye akaryo Irani ko kuronka imirwi bikorana, ironka inzira iva muri Iraki, Syria, kuva ngaho rero igashika muri Libani.

"Iki cabaye ikintu gihambaye cane kuko Hezbollah muri Libani yabaye inkingi y'umugambi wo kwiyagurira akarere, kandi cabaye n'umushinge w'Urunani rwo Kwivuna".

Yemen nayo nyene yahavuye igwa mu ntambara yo hagati mu gihugu, aho umugwa mukuru wayo n'ibisagara bitari bike vyaguye mu minwe y'imirwi y'aba-Shia bafashwe mu mugongo na Irani

'Impeta y'umuriro' ikikuje Israel

Muri ino myaka ya vuba, uru "Runani rwo Kwivuna" rwabaye ikimenyetso c'inani hagati y'imirwi ya kisilamu cane cane y'aba-Shina n'aba-Sunni mu karere, nk'imirwi y'Abanyapalestina ya Hamas na Jihad islamique/Islamic Jihad, ifise intego yo guhangana n'ubwiganze bw'Uburengero na Israel mu Buseruko bwo Hagati.

Uru runani rugizwe n'imirwi itegamiye amareta nka Hezbollah muri Libani, imirwi y'abarwanyi b'aba-Shia muri Iraki, hamwe n'inyeshamba z'aba-Houthi muri Yemen, hamwe rero kandi na reta ya Bashar al-Assad yahora irongoye Syria, rwabaye igikoresho gikomeye ca Irani mu kwiganza kwayo mu karere.

Nkako, intwaro ya Assad yari kuba yarasenyutse kera iyo idashigikirwa n'uru runani.

Uru Runani rwo Kwivuna kandi rwarashizeho "impeta y'umuriro" irya n'ino ku mbibe za Israel, maze ruba imwe mu nkinzo nyamukuru zo kwivuna Israel na Amerika.

Intambara z'igisirikare ca Amerika muri Iraki na Afghanistani zatanguye ku ntwaro ya Perezida George W Bush, hamwe n'impungenge z'intwaro ya Obama kw'isenyuka ry'amasezerano ya nikleyeri ya Irani kubera Amerika yari ihanganye na IRCC muri Syria, vyabaye bimwe mu vyafashije Irani kwiganza mu karere no kwagura uru Runani rwo Kwivuna.

John Bolton, umuhanuzi wa Amerika mu vy'umutekano mu gihe ca Trump, avuga ko utwigoro twa Irani two gukomeza igisirikare cayo hampande yo kwagura urunani rwayo twagenze neza.

Ati: "Utwigoro twa Irani two gushinga ico bita Urunani rwo Kwivuna, ari na co Soleimani n'Ingabo za Quds bakunda kwita ingamba z''impeta y'umuriro' yo kurwanya Israel, twabaye utwigoro tudasanzwe.

"Nibaza ko bakoresheje amamiriyaridi n'amamiriyaridi y'amadorari mu kiringo kitari gito c'uno mugambi, watanguranye mu bisanzwe no gushinga be no kwigisha Hezbollah muri Libani. Ufatanije ibi n'imigambi ya nikleyeri no guhingura ibisasu vya misire ya Irani, zari intego zikomeye cane kandi zarashitse ku bintu bikomeye".

Isenyuka ry'ijunja rya Irani

Imyata itanu iraheze Donald Trump yari umukuru w'igihugu ca Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ategetse igandagurwa rya Qasem Soleimani, ari na ryo ryabaye inzira y'isenyuka ry'ubwiganze bw'Ururani rwo Kwivuna.

Ubu, mu gihe Trump ariko yitegura kugaruka ku butegetsi, ububasha bwa Irani muri ako karere bwaragabanutse cane kuruta ibindi bihe vyose mu myaka mirongo ibiri iheze.

Igihe Trump yari umukuru w'igihugu, yakoze isekeza ryo gutera Irani "igitsure gikomeye cane", harimwo kwiyonkora mu masezerano mpuzamakungu ya nikleyeri no gusubizaho ibihano ruhasha.

Ibi vyatumye Irani ija mu bibazo vy'ubutunzi bikomeye mu myaka indwi iheze.

Iki gitsure yaterwa, hiyongereyeko urupfu rwa Soleimani, intwazangabo ikomeye cane, caragize uruhara mw'isenyuka ry'ijunja rya Irani mu karere.

Hagati aho, ivyabaye inyuma y'igitero ca Hamas kuri Israel ku wa 7 Gitugutu (10) 2023, vyateje izindi ngorane zikomeye gusumba.

Igandagurwa ry'abakuru ba Hamas be n'isenyurwa ry'igisirikare cayo muri Gaza, hampande y'igandagurwa ry'umukuru wa Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah i Beirut hamwe n'intwazangabo nkuru nkuru zitari nke z'uno muhari w'aba-Shia, ryatumye ubushobozi bwa Irani bwo kuzibira Israel bugoyagoya cane.

Nk'uko bivugwa na Dr Daniel Sobelman, mu guhasha igisirikare ca Hezbollah, inkingi nyamukuru y'ubwiganze bwa Irani, vyatumye ibintu bihinduka mu karere ku nyungu za Israel mu gihe kirekire.

Ati: "Mu myaka itari mike, Hezbollah yari yariyubatse nk'umurwi ukomeye kuruta iyindi yose mu Runani rwo Kwivuna.

"Ubu turiko twibaza ingene uru runani rushobora kubandanya rubaho, ni ikintu gitangaje".

Yongerako ati: "Uru Runani rwo Kwivuna rwari rwashoboye gushira ibintu ku nyungu za Irani, ariko ubu ibintu vyarahindutse rwose".

Ku rundi ruhande, isenyuka ry'ubutegetsi bwa Perezida Bashar al-Assad muri Syria, intwaro abashigikiye Iran bahoze bavuga ko yari inkingi y'uru rugamba rwo kwivuna, ryateje akaga ntasubirwamwo ku Runani rwo Kwivuna.

John Bolton agira ati: "Isenyuka rya Assad, ikintu ata muntu n'umwe yari yiteze, ryabaye ugutsindwa gukomeye kuri Irani – aha nta gukekeranya.

"'Ni ugutsindwa kandi kuri Hezbollah kubera ubu amayira yahora ironkeramwo za misire, ibirwanisho n'ibindi bikoresho vyava muri Irani arazibiye".

Yongerako ati: "Rero, Hezbollah, umuhari uriko urakubitwa bikomeye na Israel, iri mu kibazo gikomeye co kuronswa uburyo".

Kazoza k'Urunani rwo Kwivuna

Ubu, Irani, inyuma yo gutakaza benshi mu ntwazangabo n'abarongozi b'uru Runani rwo Kwivuna, kandi ubu ikaba idashikirana n'incuti zayo mu bihugu bitandukanye, yisanga mu bihe bitoroshe.

Hampande y'abarwanyi b'aba-Shia muri Iraki, inyeshamba z'aba-Houthi muri Yemen ni zo zonyene Irani ishobora gukoresha mu karere, ariko na zo nyene zihanzwe n'ibitero vy'urutavanako vya Amerika na Israel.

Nubwo Irani yashize umutahe w'amamiriyaridi y'amadorari, n'amaraso y'abantu ibihumbi amajana muri Syria no mu tundi turere tw'intambara, uru Runani rwo Kwivuna rwahoze ari inguvu zikomeye mu karere, ubu ruri mu ngorane zitari bwigere zibaho.

Hagati aho, mu gihe Donald Trump agiye kugaruka ku butegetsi, bisa n'uko mu gihe ata masezerano yoshikwako hagati ya Irani na Amerika, arashobora guhindukiriza urugamba ku Bushinwa na Iraki mu ntumbero yo kuzibira amafaranga Irani ikura mu gitoro, akarondera no gutuza abarwanyi b'aba-Shia bo mu muhari Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).

Muri iki gihe c'imivurungano iri mu Buseruko bwo Hagati, indongozi y'ikirenga ya Irani Ayatollah Ali Khamenei yavuze muri Kigarama (12) ati: "Uko mubandanya mutera igitsure abivuna, niko murushirizaho kubatera intege".

Yongeyeko ko "Urunani rwo Kwivuna ruzokwiragira mu karere gusumba uko vyari bimeze imbere y'aha".

Amajambo yiwe yerekana ko Irani ishobora gusubira kwubaka uru runani no kugarukana ubucuti yatakaje n'imirwi iri mu bihugu bitandukanye.

Ebrahim Levin, yahoze akora mw'igendereza ry'igisirikare ca Israel, abona ko imvo zovyura agatima ko kwihora mu Runani rwo Kwivuna ubu zikwiye kandi ko abarongozi barwo bazorondera kugarukana ijunja ryarwo.

Nubwo bisa nk'aho Syria "yabajanye" ku rugero kanaka, Levin abona ko "Irani ishobora kurondera gusubira muri Syria, ikaba ishobora kwitura abategetsi nka Julani [umukuru w'umuhari HTS wasenyuye Assad] ibasaba ko bosubira bakayiha uruhusha rwo gukoresha ubutaka bwa Syria".

Hagati aho, Dr Sobelman, abona ko iki gihe gishobora kuba igihe kidasanzwe,cozana impinduka mu Buseruko bwo hagati.

Ati: "Kumbure hariho akaryo ko gutorera umuti indyane hagati ya Israel na Palestina.

"Ubu ni igihe c'uko abanyapolitike n'abahinga bafata aka karyo, bakihweza ingaruka z'intambara, bakarondera izindi nzira zo kwubaka kazoza keza muri ako karere".