Amakusanyabitekerezo ku matora y'Amerika: Ni nde uri imbere – Harris cyangwa Trump?

Abatora muri Amerika bazajya mu matora ku itariki ya 5 Ugushyingo (11) muri uyu mwaka gutora perezida.

Mbere, amatora yari kuba ukwisubiramo kw'amatora yo mu mwaka wa 2020 ariko ibyo byahindutse muri Nyakanga (7) uyu mwaka, ubwo Perezida w'Amerika Joe Biden yasozaga ibikorwa bye byo kwiyamamaza, agashyigikira Visi Perezida Kamala Harris.

Ikibazo gikomeye ubu ni – ibizava mu matora bizaba bisobanuye ko Donald Trump abona manda ya kabiri cyangwa ko Amerika igira Perezida wa mbere w'umugore?

Mu gihe umunsi w'amatora urimo kugenda wegereza, tuzakomeza gukurikirana ibikubiye mu makusanyabitekerezo ndetse turebe n'ingaruka ibikorwa binini, nk'ikiganiro mpaka cyo kuri uyu wa kabiri cy'abakandida perezida, bizagira ku guhatanira kwinjira mu biro bya perezida w'Amerika (bizwi nka White House).

Ni nde uri imbere mu makusanyabitekerezo yo mu gihugu?

Mu mezi yabanjirije icyemezo cya Biden cyo kureka kwiyamamaza, amakusanyabitekerezo yakomezaga kugaragaza ko ari inyuma ya Trump wahoze ari Perezida. Nubwo ari ko byateganywaga icyo gihe, amakusanyabitekerezo menshi yumvikanishaga ko Harris atakwitwara neza kurushaho.

Ariko ihatana ryarushijeho gukomera nyuma yuko atangiye kwiyamamaza, ndetse yarushije gato mucyeba we mu mpuzandengo (muri rusange) y'amakusanyabitekerezo yo mu gihugu, ndetse ni ko bikomeje kumera kuva icyo gihe.

Harris yageze kuri 47% mu nama nkuru y'ishyaka rye ry'abademokarate yamaze iminsi ine ibera mu mujyi wa Chicago, yarangiye ku itariki ya 22 Kanama (8) uyu mwaka, yasoje avuga ijambo asezeranya "uburyo bushya mu gihe kiri imbere" ku Banyamerika bose. Imibare ye yavuye aho iri gato cyane kuva icyo gihe.

Impuzandengo ya Trump na yo muri rusange yagumye hamwe, iri muri 44%, ndetse nta cyo gushyigikirwa na Robert F Kennedy byamwongereyeho kinini. Ku itariki ya 23 Kanama, Kennedy yasoje kwiyamamaza kwe nk'umukandida wigenga.

Nubwo aya makusanyabitekerezo yo mu gihugu ari uburyo bw'ingirakamaro bwo gufasha mu kumenya ukuntu umukandida akunzwe mu gihugu hose muri rusange, ntabwo byanze bikunze ari ishusho nyakuri yo gushingiraho mu kugena ibizava mu matora.

Impamvu ni uko Amerika ikoresha uburyo bw'akanama k'intumwa zitora (electoral college), mu gutora perezida. Rero kugira amajwi menshi cyane bishobora kutaba ingenzi cyane ugereranyije n'agace wayabonyemo.

Amerika igizwe na leta 50 ariko kuko nyinshi muri zo hafi buri gihe zitora ishyaka rimwe, mu by'ukuri hari leta nkeya aho abakandida bombi bashobora kugira amahirwe yo gutsindamo. Izo ni zo amatora azatsindirwamo akanatsindwamo, ndetse zizwi nka 'battleground states', cyangwa leta ziberamo urugamba, ugenekereje mu Kinyarwanda.

Ni nde urimo gutsinda muri leta ziberamo urugamba?

Kuri ubu, imibare y'amakusanyabitekerezo iregeranye cyane muri leta zirindwi ziberamo urugamba. Ibyo bituma bigorana kumenya mu by'ukuri umukandida uyoboye muri iri hatana.

Hari amakusanyabitekerezo macye yo ku rwego rwa leta ugereranyije n'amakusanyabitekerezo yo ku rwego rw'igihugu. Ni yo mpamvu rero dufite imibare micye yo gukoreraho, ndetse buri kusanyabitekerezo rifite agace gato k'aho ryemera ko rishobora kuba ryarakoze amakosa (ibizwi nka 'margin of error'/'marge d'erreur'). Ibyo bisobanuye ko imibare ishobora kuba iri hejuru cyane cyangwa iri hasi cyane.

Uko ibintu bihagaze ubu, amakusanyabitekerezo yo mu gihe cya vuba aha gishize yumvikanisha ko hari ijanisha rya rimwe (1%) cyangwa ritageze kuri rimwe ritandukanyije abakandida bombi muri leta nyinshi.

Izo zirimo nka leta ya Pennsylvania, y'ingenzi kuko ifite umubare munini cyane w'amajwi y'intumwa, bityo bikaba byoroshye cyane ko umukandida uhatsinze ageza ku majwi 270 aba acyenewe kugira ngo umukandida abe perezida.

Leta ya Pennsylvania, leta ya Michigan na leta ya Wisconsin zose zahoze ari izingiro ry'abakemokarate, mbere yuko Trump azihindura umutuku (ibara rivuze ko zatoye umukandida w'abarepubulikani), mu rugendo rwe rwerekeza ku gutsinda amatora ya perezida yo mu 2016. Biden yarazisubije (zisubira kuba ubururu, mu gutora umudemokarate) mu mwaka wa 2020 ndetse, niba Harris na we ashoboye kubikora uyu mwaka, azaba ashobora gutsinda amatora.

Mu kimenyetso cyerekana ukuntu ihatana ryahindutse kuva Harris abaye ushobora kuba umukandida w'abademokarate (mbere yuko aba umukandida nyirizina), ku munsi Joe Biden yavuye mu bikorwa byo kwiyamamaza yari inyuma ya Trump ho amanota hafi 5% muri rusange muri izi leta zirindwi z'urugamba.

Izi mpuzandengo zikorwa gute?

Imibare twakoresheje ni impuzandengo zakozwe n'urubuga 538 rusesengura amakusanyabitekerezo, ruri mu z'igitangazamakuru ABC News cyo muri Amerika.

Mu gukora izo mpuzandengo ('moyennes'), urubuga 538 rukusanya imibare iva mu makusanyabitekerezo yo ku rwego rw'igihugu no mu makusanyabitekerezo yo muri leta z'urugamba akorwa na kompanyi nyinshi z'amakusanyabitekerezo.

Mu byo urubuga 538 rukora mu kugenzura ubuziranenge bw'iyo mibare, harimo ko rukoresha gusa amakusanyabitekerezo akorwa na kompanyi zujuje ibipimo runaka, nko kuba zikorera mu mucyo ku bijyanye no kugaragaza umubare w'abantu zabajije, igihe ikusanyabitekerezo ryakorewe n'uburyo ryakozwemo (mu guhamagara kuri telefone, ubutumwa bwo kuri telefone, ku rubuga rwa internet, n'ibindi).

Ushobora gusoma ibirenzeho hano (mu Cyongereza) ku buryo urubuga 538 rukoresha.

Dushobora kwizera amakusanyabitekerezo?

Kuri ubu, amakusanyabitekerezo yumvikanisha ko Kamala Harris na Donald Trump batandukanyijwe n'amanota macye ku ijana ku rwego rw'igihugu no muri za leta z'urugamba – kandi iyo ihatana ryegeranye gutyo, biba bigoranye cyane guteganya abazatsinda.

Amakusanyabitekerezo yakerensheje ugushyigikirwa kwa Trump mu matora yo mu mwaka wa 2016 no mu 2020. Kompanyi zikora amakusanyabitekerezo ziba zirimo kugerageza gukosora icyo kibazo kuri iyi nshuro mu buryo butandukanye, nko gukora kuburyo ibyo zitangaza bihura n'imiterere y'abaturage batora.

Izo mpinduka ziragoye kuzinoza ndetse abakora amakusanyabitekerezo ni ho hahandi bazacyenera gushingira ku bumenyi bwabo n'ubunararibonye mu gufora ibindi bintu bishobora kubaho, nk'abantu mu by'ukuri bazajya gutora ku munsi nyirizina w'amatora, ku itariki ya 5 Ugushyingo.

Byanditswe kandi bitegurwa na Mike Hills na Libby Rogers. Bihabwa iforoma na Joy Roxas.