Intambara ya Ukraine n'Uburusiya: Abahinga babona ko 2024 ari umwaka utazokworoha kuri Ukraine

Umurwi w’abahinga karuhariwe b’abasirikare bo mu bihugu vy’uburengero basohoye urwandiko rw’ingene babona ingene intambara hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine igiye kugenda.

Nk’uko babibona, muri uno mwaka Ukraine bizoba ngombwa ko yitaho ukwivuna gusa no gutsimbataza igisirikare n’igisata c’umutekano, ibi bikazoba akarusho ku Burusiya, hanyuma ikazoshobora gusubira gukora ibitero mu 2025.

Hagati aho, ibi bizokunda mu gihe gusa hoba utwigoro tudasanzwe hagati mu gihugu hanyuma ikabandanya ihabwa imfashanyo n’incuti zayo z’Uburengero, nk’uko aba bahinga babivuga.

Biri muri uru rwandiko rwiswe “Hold, build and hit (twogereranya mu kirundi na “Gumya, wiyubake hanyuma ukubite”) rwanditswe na Michael Kofman na Dara Massicot bo mu kigo Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (ishirahamwe rifatwa n’Uburusiya ko ari “igikoresho c’abanyamahanga), hamwe na Rob Lee, umushakashatsi wo ku kigo co muri Amerika Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Ku bwabo, uko niko Ukraine izoshobora kwitegurira gutsinda intambara.

Bandika ko mu 2024 Ukraine itegerezwa kurwana kugira ngo ntitakaze ibirindiro vyayo mu gihe izobandanya iterwa bikomeye n’umwansi ayisumvya ubushobozi, muri uwo mwanya nyene ikabandanya yegeranya uburyo n’ubushobozi, kugira ngo izoshobore gukora igitero cogira ico gishitseko.

Bandika bati: “Kugira ntibatakaze ibirindiro, bisaba ko igisirikare ca Ukraine citegura guhangana n’umwansi, kikongereza inguvu kikongera kigeranya ibikoresho bitandukanye.

“Uku kwiyubaka gukwiye kwibanda ku kunagura ingabo mu kuziha inyigisho hamwe no kwongereza ubushobozi mu gisata c’ukwivuna abansi”.

Aho nyene, aba bahinga bavuga ko uno mwaka wa 2024 uzoba umwaka utoroshe kuri Ukraine, kandi ko bizoterwa n’ukungene Uburusiya buzokwiganza ku rubuga ku bwinshi bw’ingabo n’uburyo hamwe n’ubushobozi bwabwo bw’igisata ca gisirikare.

Ni mu gihe ikinyamakuru Washington Post co muri Amerika candika ko, inyuma y’igitero co mu mwaka uheze kitagenze neza, ubutegetsi bwa Perezida Joe Biden wa Amerika buriko butegura uwundi mukenyuro uzokwibanda ku gufasha Ukraine kwivuna ibitero vy’Uburusiya, no gutegura umugambi w’igihe kirekire wo gukomeza ubushobozi bwa gisirikare n’ubutunzi vya Ukraine, aho kurondera kubohoza ubutaka.

Iyi nteguro iratandukanye n’iy’umwaka uheze, igihe Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’incuti zayo barungikira Ukraine ibikoresho bigezweho bakanigisha ingabo zayo bizeye ko ibi vyari gufasha kwirukana vuba ingabo z’Uburusiya zigaruriye ubuseruko n’ubumanuko bwa Ukraine, nk’uko iki kinyamakuru candika. Utu twigoro twabaye impfagusa kubera Uburusiya bwari bwatsimbataje ibirindiro vyabwo vyo guhangana n’umwansi.

Umutegetsi wo mu biro vy’umukuru w’igihugu ca Amerika yabwiye iki kinyamakuru ati: “Biragaragara ko [abanya-Ukraine] batazokworoherwa na gato uno mwaka ni bagerageza gukora nk’uko bakoze mu mwaka uheze barondera gusatira umwansi ku mpande zose”.

Ikiriho ubu ni uguha uburyo Ukraine kugira ngo ishobore kugumya ibirindiro vyayo ku rubuga rw’intambara, ariko kandi no “kuyiha iyindi nzira itandukanye ku buryo gushika mu mpera za 2024 yoba ikomeye cane gusumba, tukayishira ku rundi rugero rukomeye gusumba”, niko iki kinyamakuru candika gisubiramwo iri soko ryaco ritashimye ko izina ryaryo rija ahabona.

Ikintu kiriho, ni uko mu gihe Ukraine yoramuka isubiriye gukora ibitero vyo kwivuna umwansi, ibintu bizogenda nk’uko vyagenze mu mwaka uheze, ibi navyo bikaba vyokwerekana inguvu za Vladimir Putin, nk’uko iki kinyamakuru kibandanya kivyandika.

Nico gituma incuti za Ukraine ziriko zitegura imigambi y’igihe kirekire.

Mu ndwi iheze, Ubwongereza bwatangaje amasezerano y’imyaka cumi – yateweko igikumu n’umushikiranganji wa mbere Rishi Sunak na Perezida Vladimir Zelensky i Kyiv, umugwa mukuru wa Ukraine. Ubu naho, vyitezwe ko umukuru w’igihugu c’Ubufaransa agendera Ukraine.

Ariko kugira ngo ibi vyose bizogire ico bishikako, bizovana na Amerika, igihugu gitanga imfashanyo nyinshi (mu mahera n’ibikoresho), ikaba kandi ari yo irongoye utu twigoro tw’ibi bihugu bigize urunani. Ubutegetsi bwa Biden bwiteze gushira ahabona integuro yabwo y’imyaka cumi, naho imfashanyo y’inyongera y’imiriyaridi 61 z’amadorari y’abanyamerika igenewe Ukraine itarashobora kwemezwa n’inama nshingamateka na nkenguzamateka.

Zelensky ashimangira ko Ukraine ibandanya n’igitero cayo.

Mu butumwa aherutse gushikiriza kuri videwo, avuga ko integuro za 2024 atari “izo kwivuna gusa”. Ariko abategetsi ba Amerika baherutse kubonana na we mu mwiherero bavuga ko na Zelensky we nyene ubwiwe afise amakenga ku kungene integuro ziwe zizogenda mu 2024 mu gihe ibijanye n’imfashanyo ya Amerika bitotomoka neza, nk’uko Washington Post ivyandika.