Mu kurindira intambara ikomeye: Kubera iki Ubulaya bwitegurira akarambaraye

Umukuru w’igisirikare c’Ubwongereza yateye akamo igihugu kwitegurira intambara ikomeye hamwe no kwongereza ingabo z’integabizoza mu kwigisha abasivire.

Ni mu gihe abategetsi b’Ubudagi, Suwede, Norvège n’abaserukira ishirahamwe ryo kwivunira umwansi hamwe, OTAN/NATO, baherutse kugabisha ko hashobora kuba igitero c’Uburusiya.

Abahinga babona ko ibivugwa n’ibi bihugu vyerekana impungenge zigenda ziyongera ku gitero ca Ukraine co kwivuna umwansi, mu gihe kandi mu misi iri imbere Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zinjira mu matora y’umukuru w’igihugu.

Igisata c’ukwivuna abansi c’Ubwongereza

Mu ndwi iheze, Jenerali Sir Patrick Sanders, umukuru w’igisirikare c’Ubwongereza, yavuze ko urwaruka rw’Abongereza ari urunganwe (generation) rurindiriye intambara, kandi ko rutegerezwa kwitegurira kwigura igihugu mu gihe vyoba nkenerwa mu gihe kitari kure.

Uno mujenerali yasavye ko igisirikare cokwongerezwa kigashika ku bihumbi 120 kivuye ku bihumbi 73 bihari ubu, mu gushiraho ingabo z’integabizoza – akavuga ibi afatiye ku vyago vy’uko hashobora kuba intambara n’Uburusiya.

Sanders ati: “[Intambara muri] Ukraine irerekana ingene ibisirikare bisanzwe bitanguza intambara zikaza gutsindwa n’ibisirikare vy’abanyagihugu”.

Igikorwa ca nyuma co kwinjiza abanyagihugu mu gisirikare ni igiheruka mu 1960, kuva ico gihe ibibazo vyo kwivuna umwansi bikaba vyaravuye burundu mu mitwe y’igice kinini c’abanyagihugu.

Mu kuvuga igisirikare c’abanyagihugu, iyo ntwazangabo yashatse kuvuga abasivire b’integabizoza bafise ubumenyi shingiro ku bijanye n’igisirikare kandi biteguriye kwitabazwa mu gihe hokwaduka intambara ikomeye – nk’uko bimeze mu Burusiya canke muri Ukraine.

Umushikiranganji w’Ubwongereza ajejwe kwivuna abansi yari aherutse gushikiriza akamo nk’aka mu misi iheze, aho yavuze ko igihugu kiriko kiva “mu gihe c’inyuma y’intambara kija mu gihe c’imbere y’intambara”. Ariko aka kamo ntikatahuwe co kimwe n’umukuru w’ibiro bikuru vya gisirikare be n’umunyaporitike w’umusivire.

Ijambo ry’uno mujenerali ryakiriwe mu buryo budasobanutse. Hanyuma kandi n’ubwo uwujejwe kumenyesha amakuru mu biro vy’umushikiranganji wa mbere yaciye yihutira gutanga umuco ko ata mugambi uhari wo gusubira kwinjiza abanyagihugu mu gisirikare, ibinyamakuru vy’Ubwongereza vyariko birabaza cane nimba koko Abongereza biteguriye kwinjira mu gisirikare mu buryo bwa ngombwa.

Igice kigenewe ivyiyumviro vy’aba n’abandi mu kinyamakuru Guardian casanze ko ari nkenerezwa kugira igisirikare nyaco ibi bigasigura ko reta ikwiye gushira amafaranga mu gisirikare, ariko kandi ko n’ibibazo vy’imibereho hamwe n’ivy’ihindagurika ry’ibirere na vyo ari nkenerwa ku rugero rumwe.

Ikinyamakuru Times, ku rundi ruhande, kirashigikira akamo gaterwa n’uno mu jenerali mbere kinerekana ibishobora gukorwa mu kwongereza ingabo z’integabizoza.

Nk’uko iki kinyamakuru kibivuga, imyimenyerezo ihabwa ingabo za Ukraine mu Bwongereza ishobora kuba umushinge wo gutegura igisirikare c’integabizoza.

Kuva mu 2022, ingabo zirenga ibihumbi 30 z’igisirikare ca Ukraine, imbere y’aha cari ic’abanyagihugu, zarigishijwe mu bigo vy’igisirikare c’Ubwongerezza mu rwego rwa Operation Interflex.

Abanyagihugu ntibashaka kwinjira igisirikare

Frank Ledwidge, umwigisha w’ivya gisirikare kw’ishure kaminuza ya Portsmouth, akaba yahoze akora mu nzego z’igendereza rya gisirikare z’Ubwongereza, avuga ko muri iki gihe, abanyagihugu badashika 1% ari bo bafise uruhara mu bijanye n’umutekano mu buryo ubu canke buriya.

Igitero c’Uburusiya kuri Ukraine ni impamvu imwe ituma abanyagihugu bahamagarirwa kumera magabo ku kibazo catewe n’imyaka myinshi yahaciye igisirikare cirengangizwa, nk’uko abibona.

Igitigiri c’ingabo zirwanira mu mazi (Royal Navy) ntigihengeshanya kugabanuka, igisirikare nta buryo gifise bwo kurungika na diviziyo (division, umurwi w’ingabo ziri hagati y’ibihumbi 10 na 15 ) n’imwe, nayo igisirikare kirwanira mu kirere kikaba gifise imirwi (escadrons/’squadrons) indwi yonyene yo kurwana, ugereranije n’igisirikare kirwanira mu kirere ca Singapour.

Nk’uko bimeze mu bindi bihugu vya Bulaya, amahera Ubwongereza bukoresha mu vyo umutekano yagiye agabanywa cane kuva inyuma ya ya ntambara yo kwikekana (Guerre froide/Cold War). Muri iki gihe, igisirikare c’Ubwongereza gifise ingabo ibihumbi 73, kandi gifise ikibazo co kubura abasirikare binjira nk’abakozi.

Ledwidge yabwiye BBC ati: "Igisirikare kiri mu kajagari kuzuye”.

Avuga ko igikorwa ca mbere ari ugutorera umuti iki kibazo c’ikena ry’abasirikare binjira nk’abakozi no kubaronderera vya nkenerwa. Yongerako y’uko we nyene ubwiwe azi abasirikare baba mu mazu atagira amazi ashushe.

Ikindi kibazo giteye impungenge abanyaporitike b’Ubwongereza ni uko bibandanya bigaragara ko Donald Trump ashobora gusubira kugaruka ku butegetsi, ibi bigashobora gukurikirwa n’ihagarikwa ry’imfashanyo igenewe Ukraine be n’ukunaniza OTAN.

“Ubwoba”, iki ni co cuka Ledwidge abona mu banyaporitike bamwe bamwe.

Igitero c’Uburusiya: impari ku gihe

No mu muryango w’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya ibintu bimeze nk’uku nyene.

Minna Alander, umushakashatsi mu kigo ca Finlande cigisha ibijanye n’imigenderanire (Finnish Institute of International Affairs), avuga ati: “Hari akantu k’ubwoba butewe n’uko Trump ashobora kugaruka ku butegetsi”.

Abanyaporitike babaza ibibazo bibiri: ibihugu vy’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya bishobora kumara igihe kingana gute bifashe mu mugongo Ukraine bidafashijwe na Amerika, hanyuma bizogenda gute ari nka hamwe Amerika yotererana ibihugu vya OTAN bigasigara ari vyonyene bihanganye n’abakeba bavyo.

Kuri izi mvo, ubwoba bw’uko bishobora gutana mu mitwe n’Uburusiya buriko bwiyongera, naho Vladimir Putin yijeje ko ata mugambi afise wo kurwana na OTAN.

Nubwo imbere y’aha abantu bemeza ko imishamirano hagati y’ibihugu bitunze ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy’ubumara ishobora kwandurukamwo intambara ya nikleyeri (yo gukoresha ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy’ubumara), ubu hari ibintu vyinshi biriko birihwezwa cane, harimwo ugutana mu mitwe hagati y’ingabo z’Uburusiya n’iza Bulaya Amerika itarimwo – kandi hagakoreshwa ibirwanisho vy’ubwoko bwose bushoboka kiretse ivya nikleyeri.

Abanyaporitike ba Bulaya barazi neza ko Uburusiya bwakoresheje ino myaka ibiri y’intambara muri Ukraine neza cane gusumba Uburengero, kandi ko bwashoboye kwongereza ibirwanisho vyabwo na za ndege zitagira abaderva (drone), bwongera bunagura igisirikare cabwo, nk’uko bivugwa na Minna Alander.

Vya bindi vyo kwiyumva ko ari ba ntatsindwa biriko birava mu mitwe y’abategetsi.

Frank Ledwidge ati: “Kuvuga ko Uburusiya bwahongowe amenyo ni ukutiyumvira. Uburusiya burakomeye cane gusumba uko bwari bumeze mu 2022, kandi bubandanya bukomera”.

Hagati muri uku kwa mbere, umushikiranganji w’Ubudagi ajejwe kwivuna abansi Boris Pistorius yagabishije ko Uburusiya bushobora gutera OTAN – kandi ko igihugu ciwe gikeneye imyaka kuva kuri itanu gushika ku munani kugira ngo kiyitegurire.

Imbere y’aha, ikinyamakuru Bild co mu Budagi catangaje urwandiko rwacorotseubushikiranganji bwo kwivuna abansi ruvuga ko Uburusiya bushobora gutera ku mipaka ya OTAN mw’iremba (automne/autumn) rya 2024, buca haba amatora muri Amerika. Mu kwishura kw’iri toroka ry’uru rwandiko, igisirikare cishuye ko ari igikorwa caco co kwiga ku bintu vyose bishobora kuba.

Umushikiranganji wo kwivuna abansi wa Suwede yavuze ko intambara ishobora kwinjira mu gihugu ciwe, kizigenza w’intwaramiheto nawe akaba yahamagariye abanya-Suwede kwitegurira intambara. Nk’uko vyagenze mu Bwongereza, aya majambo yateje impari mu banyagihugu.

Hagati aho, umukuru w’igisirikare ca Norvège, yavuze ko Ubulaya bukeneye “imyaka ibiri canke itatu” yo kwitegurira igitero c’Uburusiya.

Rob Bauer, umukuru wa komite ya gisirikare ya OTAN akongera akaba n’intwazangabo nkuru mu gisirikare kirwanira mu mazi c’Ubuholande (Royal Netherlands Navy), yavuze ko abasivire ba Bulaya bategerezwa kwitegurira intambara yuzuye n’Uburusiya mu myaka 20 iri imbere.

Minna Alander ati: “Amajambo y’agasomborotso ni ayo kugerageza gukangura abanyagihugu b’ibi bihugu kandi yerekana ko ibintu vyahindutse cane”.

Kubandanya bikorana na Ukraine?

Ukraine yizeye ko Ubulaya buzoshobora kubandanya buyiha imfashanyo, muri uwo mwanya nyene bubandanye n’ibikorwa vyabwo bwite vyo kwivuna abansi, nk’uko bivuwa na Alena Glivko, umukozi wo mu kigo c’abahinga c’Ubwongereza, Henry Jackson Society.

Uno muhinga mu vya poritike avuga ati: “Ndizeye ko ibi bikorwa vyompi bizofatanywa”.

Muri rusangi, gushika mu kw’icumi kw’umwaka uheze, Ubumwe bwa Bulaya (ibihugu ku gatwe kavyo hamwe no mu migambi rusangi) vyari bimaze kurungikira Ukraine imfashanyo za gisirikare n’iż’ubutabazi zirenga imiriyaridi 133 z’ama-euro.

Ariko imfashanyo y’ibirwanisho bitangwa n’Uburengero yaragabanutse cane mu 2023, kandi ibi vyatumye igisirikare ca Ukraine kija mu bukene bw’amasasu.

Icegeranyo c’ikigo cigisha ibijanye n’ukwivuna abansi, Royal Institute of Defense Studies, kivuga ko igisirikare c’Ubwongereza gifise amasasu make cane mu bubiko bwabwo bw’ibirwanisho gusumba ayakoreshejwe n’Uburusiya mu misi ibiri y’intambara za mbere z’urutavanako zabereye mu kakere ka Donbass.

Uguhingura amasasu mashasha - yaba ayagenewe Ukraine canke ayabwo ubwabwo - bisaba umutahe munini cane n’integuro nini, ibi navyo ibihugu bitari bike vya Bulaya bikaba bitarashobora kuvyitegurira.

Alander wo mu kigo Finnish Institute of International Affairs avuga ati: “Bizoba bigoye cane ingene Ubulaya bufasha Ukraine muri uwo mwanya nyene bube buriko bunagura ibisata cabwo co kwivuna umwansi.

“Abategetsi b’ibihugu vya Bulaya baratanguye kubona ko igihe c’amahoro c’inyuma y’intambara y’ukwikekana cabaye igihe c’ubusamazi”.