Cayil iyo buurni lagu tilmaamay musiibo ku soo wajahan dunida oo walaac laga muujinayo

In ka badan kala bar dhammaan dadka waaweyn iyo saddex meelood meel carruurta iyo da'yarta adduunka ayaa la saadaaliyay inay cayilayaan ama buuranayaan marka la gaaro 2050-ka.

Arrintaan ayaa lagu sheegay daraasad cusub oo caalami ah oo lagu daabacay joornaalka Lancet, taasoo ka hadashay in ka badan 200 oo waddan.

Cilmi-baarayaashu waxay ka digayaan in heerarka buurnida la saadaaliyay inay si degdeg ah u kordhi doonto inta lagu jiro sanooyinka ka harsan, gaar ahaan waddamada dakhligoodu hooseeyo.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, khubarada ayaa sheegaya in haddii dowladuhu ay hadda qaadaan tallaabo degdeg ah, ay weli jirto waqti laga hortagi karo waxa ay ku tilmaameen "musiibo qoto dheer".

Laga soo bilaabo 2021-dii, ku dhawaad kala bar dadka qaangaarka ah ee adduunka - bilyan rag ah iyo 1.11 bilyan oo haween ah oo da'doodu tahay 25 ama ka weyn - ayaa ahaa kuwo buuran ama cayilan.

Tirada ragga iyo dumarka la nool xaaladahan ayaa labanlaabmay tan iyo 1990-kii.

Haddii isbeddelku sii socdo, heerarka caalamiga ah ee dadka waaweyn ee cayilan waxay kor ugu kici doonaan ilaa 57.4% ragga iyo 60.3% haweenka marka la gaaro 2050-ka.

Marka la eego tirooyinka Shiinaha (627 milyan), Hindiya (450 milyan) iyo Mareykanka (214 milyan) ayaa noqon doona waddamada dadka ugu badan ay ku nool yihiin oo ah kuwa cayilan ama buuran sanadka 2050.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, kororka dadwaynaha ayaa la macno ah in saadaliyayaashu ay muujinayaan in tirada Afrika gaarahaan dalalka Saxaraha ka hooseeya ay kor u kacdo in ka badan 250% ilaa 522 milyan.

Nigeria ayaa u muuqata in tirada la saadaaliyay ay ka badan tahay saddex laab – laga soo bilaabo 36.6 milyan oo ay gaarayeen sanadkii 2021-ka , 141 milyan ayay saadaashu sheegaysaa 2050-ka . Taasi waxay ka dhigi doontaa waddanka afaraad ee ugu badan ee dadka qaangaarka ah ee cayillanyihiin ama buuranyihiin.

Cilmi-baarayaashu waxay qireen in daraasaddu aanay xisaabta ku darin saamaynta ay yeelan karaan dawooyinka miisaan dhimista oo dad badan isticmaalaan.

Khubarada ayaa sheegaya in haddii dowladuhu ay hadda qaadaan tillaabo degdeg ah, ay weli jirto waqti looga hortagi karo wax musiibo ku noqon kara nidaamyada daryeelka caafimaadka ee nugul.

Cilmi-baaristan waxaa hoggaaminayay Prof Emmanuela Gakidou, oo ka tirsan Machadka Caafimaadka Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), ee Jaamacadda Washington ee dalka Mareykanka.

Waxay tiri: "Dowladuhu waxay dalalkooda u adeegsan karaan qiyaaso gaar ah oo ku saabsan marxaladda, waqtiga, iyo xawaaraha isbeddelka hadda jira iyo kuwa la saadaaliyay ee miisaanka si loo ogaado dadka mudnaanta leh ee la kulmi kara culeysyada ugu weyn ee buurnaanta kuwaas oo u baahan faragelin degdeg ah iyo daaweyn, waana in ugu horreyn lagu bartilmaameedsadaa xeeladaha ka hortagga.

"Faafidda aan horay loo arag ee adduunka oo dhan ee cayilka iyo ayaa ah masiibo qoto dheer iyo guul-darro weyn oo bulshada dhexdeeda ah," ayay raacisay hadalkeeda.

Sare u kaca heerarka buurnida waxaa hadda wajahaya si gaar ah dhalinyarada.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, 2050-ka mid ka mid ah saddexdii qof ee dhallinyara ah ayaa buurnaantu saameyn doontaa.

Cilmi-baare Dr Jessica Kerr oo ka tirsan Machadka Cilmi-baarista Carruurta ee Murdoch ee Australia, ayaa sheegtay in tirooyinkan ay caqabad dhab ah ku yihiin nidaamyada daryeelka caafimaadka sanadaha soo socda.

"Laakiin haddii aan hadda wax ka qabanno, ka hortagga u buurnaanta caalamiga ah ee carruurta iyo dhallinyarada weli waa suurtogal," ayay tiri.

"Odoraskeenna ayaa tilmaamaya in carruurta iyo dhalinyarada ku nool inta badan Yurub iyo koonfurta Aasiya ee ay la noolaan doonaa miisaan xad-dhaaf ah kuwaas oo ay tahay in lagu beegsado xeeladaha ka hortagga buurnaanta.

"Waxaan sidoo kale aqoonsannay dad badan, gaar ahaan gabdhaha qaan-gaarka ah, ee ku nool Waqooyiga Mareykanka, Australia, Waqooyiga Afrika, Bariga Dhexe, iyo Latin America ay noqon kuwo wajaha cayil badan waxayna u baahnaan doonaan faragelin degdeg ah iyo daaweyn dhinacyo badan leh.

"Tani waa lama huraan si looga fogaado isu gudbinta fac-weynida buurnida iyo in laga hortago mowjadaha xaaladaha caafimaad ee halista ah ee jiilalka mustaqbalka."