Afghanistan: Wace riba ko faɗuwa sauran ƙasashe za su samu a mulkin Taliban?

Yayin da Taliban ke share fage a matsayin sabbin shugabannin Afghanistan, sauran ƙasashe na ƙoƙarin sabawa da wannan sabon sauyin a mulki.

Ana ta tattaunawar difilomasiyya a manyan biranen ƙasashen duniya, daga Moscow zuwa Beijing zuwa Islamabad.

Kuma a lokacin da aka kai harin bom a filin jirgin sama na Kabul ranar 26 ga Agusta, ƙungiyoyin ƴan bindiga na nuna yadda suke kallon mulkin Taliban.

Amma me waɗannan ɓangarorin ke so su samu bayan Taliban ta ƙwace mulki? Ga yadda lamarin zai iya shafar wasu ɓangarorin ƙasashen waje:

Pakistan

Maƙwabciyar Afghanistan, Pakistan na da abubuwa da dama da za ta samu kuma ta rasa sanadiyyar sauyin mulkin na Kabul.

Ƙasashen na da iyaka guda mai nisan kilomita 2,400 kuma ƴan gudun hijirar Afghanistan miliyan 1.4 aka yi wa rajista a Pakistan - kuma an yi ƙiyasin cewa akwai da dama da ba a san da su ba a hukumance.

Don haka Pakistan za ta yi asara sanadiyyar rikicin na Afghanistan.

Amma wataƙila Pakistan ɗin ce kawai ƙasar da ke da alaƙa ta kut da kut da Taliban.

Kalmar Taliban, wadda ke nufin "ɗalibai" a harshen Pashto, ta ɓulla ne a farkon shekarun 1990 a arewacin Pakistan. Ƴan Afghanistan da dama da suka shiga gangamin daga farko-farko sun yi karatu ne a makarantun islamiyya a Pakistan.

Duk da cewa ta daɗe tana musanta taimaka wa Taliban, Pakistan na ɗaya daga cikin ƙasashe uku, tare da Saudiyya da Haɗaɗdiyar Daular Larabawa , da suka amince da ƙungiyar lokacin da ta ƙwace mulki a shekarun 1990.

Haka kuma, ita ce ƙasa ta ƙarshe da ta yanke alakar difalomasiyya da ƙungiyar.

Duk da cewa dangantakar ta yi tsami daga baya, Umer Karim, wani mai bincike a Royal United Services Institute London (RUSI), ya ce "masu faɗa a ji a Pakistan na ganin cewa ƙungiyar ta samu wurin zama" a wannan karon.

Ga ƴan Pakistan da ke kallon al'amuran duniya ta mahangar gogayya da Indiya, ƙwace mulki da Taliban ta yi na nufin raguwar tasirin Indiya a ƙasar.

Karim ya ce "Pakistan ta damu da zaman ofisoshin jakadancin Indiya a iyakar Afghanistan da Pakistan, a birane kamar Jalalabad da Kandahar.

"Ya nuna cewa su ne ke goyon bayan ƙungiyoyin da ke adawa da Pakistan kamar ƙungiyar Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan a arewaci da ƙungiyoyin ƴan bindiga da dama a Kudanci."

Yanzu da Taliban ke mulki, Pakistan na ganin cewa za ta iya sake gina tasirinta, a cewar Karim.

"Mafi yawan kasuwancin Afghanistan na faruwa ne ta Pakistan, ciki har da kayan abinci kamar fulawa da shinkafa da kayan lambu da siminti da kayan gini," a cewarsa.

Haka kuma, Pakistan na so ta samar da "wata gada ta tattalin arziki" da ƙasashen yankin tsakiyar Asiya da za ta ratsa ta Afghanistan don haɗa kasar da tattalin arzikin yankin.

"Gwamnatin Taliban da ke fuskantar wariya daga ƙasashen duniya ba za ta iya juya wa Pakistan baya ba," a cewar Karim.

Rasha

Har yanzu Rasha tana tuna yaƙin shekara goma da ta yi - kuma ta yi rashin nasara - da mayaƙan Afghanistan tsakanin 1979 da 1989.

Duk da cewa a yanzu muradanta dangane da Afghanistan ba su da yawa, rashin kwanciyar hankali a kasar na iya yin tasiri mai girma kan makwabtanta na arewaci, waɗanda tsoffin kasashen Sobiyet ne da ke da kusanci da Rasha.

Babban abin da ke gaba Rasha shi ne idan Afghanistan za ta iya zama mafaka ga masu ikirarin jihadi na yankin, musamman masu alaƙa da kungiyar IS waɗanda makiyan Rasha da Taliban ne.

Moscow ta yi sauri wajen gano irin ƙarfin da ƙungiyar Taliban take da shi, inda ta fara mu'amala da ƙungiyar tun kafin sojojin ƙasashen ƙetare su janye daga Afghanistan.

Fyodor Lukyanov, wanda shi ne edita a ɓangaren labarun ƙasashen ƙetare a wata jarida ta Rasha, ya shaida wa BBC cewa Rasha za ta ci gaba da irin tsare-tsaren da take da su kan Afghanistan.

A ɗayan ɓangaren kuma, akwai ƙarin dakarun Rasha a Tajikistan da kuma haɗin kan sojojin Afghanistan da na Tajikistan wajen rage yiwuwar masu tsatsauran ra'ayi daga Afghanistan don kada su shiga ƙasashen.

Ana ganin janyewar sojojin Amurka daga tsakiyar nahiyar Asia, ya rage ƙarfin Amurka a wani yanki da Rasha ke kallo a matsayin mai ƙarfi.

"Abin da ke da kyau gare mu ba shi da kyau ga Amurka, abin da ba shi da kyau gare mu yana da kyau ga Amurka. A yau lamarin ya ƙi yi wa Amurka daɗi mu kuma ya yi mana daɗi, in ji Arkady Dubnov, wani mai sharhi kan harkokin siyasa a Moscow kamar yadda ya shaida wa jaridar Financial Times.

China

Abin da China ke so a Afghanistan duk sun shafi lamura da suka shafi tattalin arziki da tsaro.

Sakamakon janyewar dakarun Amurka, ana ganin cewa kamfanonin China sun samu damar kwasar albarkatun Afghanistan.

Wasu ƙwararru na Amurka sun yi ƙiyasin cewa akwai albarkatun ƙasa da suka kai na dala tiriliyan ɗaya narke a cikin ƙasa - sai dai gwamnatin Afghanistan ta ce albarkatun ƙasarta sun ninka wannan ƙiyasin sau uku.

Sai dai har yanzu kamfanonin China na nan na auna irin hatsarin da ke tattare da zuwa ƙasar ta ɓangaren siyasa da tsaro, kamar yadda wata jaridar China ta Global Times ta ruwaito a ranar 24 ga watan Agusta.

Bugu da ƙari, kamfanonin na China sun ce aiki a Afghanistan ya ta'allaƙa ne da yadda takunkumin ƙasashen yamma zai shafe su, kamar yadda jaridar ta bayyana.

Sai dai ana ganin kamfanonin na China sun ƙagara su shiga wannan kasuwa wadda ake ganin za su samu alheri masu ɗumbin yawa.

Daga mahanga daban-daban, gwamnatin China na da dalili mai ƙarfi da take da shi na ci gaba da hulɗa da Afghanistan.

Afghanistan hanya ce da ƴan kasuwar China ke ratsawa domin saye da sayarwa tun a zamanin da, inda Chinar daga nan ke zuwa Iran har Pakistan.

Kuma kamar Rasha, China ta damu matuƙa kan cewa za a iya amfani da Afghanistan a matsayin mafaka ta masu tsattsauran ra'ayi a yankin, musamman idan aka yi la'akari da abin da ke faruwa a yankin Xinjiang na China da ke yammacin ƙasar.

Jonathan Marcus, wani mai sharhi kan siyasar ƙasashen duniya kuma tsohon wakilin BBC, ya bayyana cewa "China ta haɗa ƙaramar iyaka da Afghanistan.

"Ƙasar ta China na takurawa Muslmin ƙasarta da suka kasance marasa rinjaye a ƙasar kuma akwai damuwa kan cewa Musulmai waɗanda suka ƙi jinin China za su yi amfani da ƙasar a matsayin sansaninsu. Ba mamaki ofishin jakadancin China a makonnin da suka gabata ya yi ta ƙoƙarin maka Taliban ɗin kotu."

A yayin wata tattaunawa ta waya a ranar 25 ga watan Agusta, Shugabannin China da Rasha Xi Jinping da Vladimir Putin sun amince su ƙara ƙaimi wajen yaƙi da barazanar ta'addanci da safararar miyagun ƙwayoyi da ke fitowa daga Afghanistan.

Iran

Iran ta shafe shekaru tana hulɗa da Taliban, kamar yadda Karim ya bayyana, musamman ta ɓangaren dakarun Ƙurdawa, wani sashi na dakarun juyin juya hali na Iran, ƙungiyar da Amurka ke wa kallon ƙungiyar ta'addanci.

Karim ya bayyana cewa Iran ɗin ta ci gaba da aiki kafaɗa da kafaɗa da Taliban.

"Ta ƙarbi baƙuncin shugabannin Taliban haka kuma ta samar musu da makamai da kuɗi. Ita kuma Taliban din ta rinƙa karɓar musamman ƴan shi'a da ke Afghanistan, musamman al'ummar Hazara wanda hakan ne ya sa al'ummar Hazara ta faɗa hannun Taliban ba tare da kashe kowa ba."

Duk da sassaucin da Taliban ta yi a matsayinta dangane da al'ummar Hazara, akwai rahotanni da dama da ke nuna cewa an ci zarafin al'ummar Hazara marasa rinjaye waɗanda ake zargin sojojin Taliban sun yi.

Idan ƙasashen duniya suka ware Afghanistan, hakan zai bayar da dama ga Iran ta ƙara ƙarfi a Afghanistan, in ji Karim.

"Akwai yiwuwar Iran tana son samu da kuma duba wasu jirage marasa matuƙa, da makamai masu linzami da sauran makamai da Amurka suka bari waɗanda a yanzu haka ke hannun ƴan Taliban.

Samun zaman lafiya a Afghanistan zai kawo sauƙi ta ɓangaren yadda ƴan ci-rani ke kwarara zuwa Iran - inda a yanzu ƙasar ke da ƴan gudun hijirar Afghanistan 780,000 da masu neman mafaka, kamar yadda hukumar da ke kula da ƴan gudun hijira ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta bayyana

Ƙasashen Yamma

Shugabannin ƙasashen Yamma za su yi ƙoƙarin bayyana shekara 20 da aka shafe ana yaƙi da Taliban a matsayin nasara, sai dai babu shakka Taliban na ganin cewa su ke da nasara.

"Mun ci yaƙin nan kuma Amurka ta ba samu nasara ba, " kamar yadda wani shugaban Taliban ya shaida wa BBC.

Ga Amurka da ƙawayenta na ƙasashen Yamma, dawo da martabarsu bayan wannan lamari zai ɗauki lokaci mai ɗan tsawo.

Sai dai yayin da take magana a Majalisar Tarayyar Jamus, shugabar gwamnatin ƙasar, Angela Merkel, ta bayyana cewa janye dakarun, "ba yana nufin ƙarshen ƙoƙarin da ake yi ba kenan na kare masu agazawa Afghanistan da kuma taimaka wa waɗanda aka bari cikin halin ko ta kwana bayan Taliban ta ƙwace iko da gwamnati.

"Burinmu shi ne mu kare abin da aka cimmawa a shekara 20 da aka kwashe a Afghanistan," in ji ta.

Wannan sabon ƙawancen zai ta'allaƙa ne ga "irin aiki da kuma halayar sabuwar gwamnati," in ji Michel.

Kwararar ƴan gudun hijira da masu neman mafaka zai zama abu mafi fifiko ga ƙasashen Yamma, da kuma ganin an daƙile Afghanistan daga samar da sabbin masu iƙirarin jihadi.

Ƙungiyoyi masu iƙirarin jihadi

Kamar yadda harin ya nuna, ba gwamnati kaɗai bace za ta yi amfani da wannan sabon tsarin na yanki. Sabuwar gwamnatin Taliban ta shafi dakarun masu iƙirarin jihadi.

A dayan ɓangaren kuma, masana na gargadi kan sake haɗuwar ƙungiyar Al Qaeda, wadda harin da ta kai a 2001 a Amurka ya ja Amurkar ta far wa Afghanistan.

Ta wani ɓangaren kuma, ƙungiyoyi masu iƙirarin jihadi da ke goyon bayan IS za su zama tamkar an hura musu wuta ne domin su fito su nuna abin da za su iya, kamar yadda Sana Jaffrey ta bayyana, wadda ita ce daraktar cibiyar tsaro da fashin baƙi kan batun rikici a Jakarta.

Masu goyon bayan ƙungiyar IS na watsi da batun nasarar da Taliban ke iƙirarin samu. Duk da haka ta bayyana cewa nasarar da Taliban ta samu labari ne babba ga ƙungiyar Al Qaeda da ta daɗe ba ta samu irinsa ba.

"A cikin kudu maso gabashin nahiyar Asia, mun ga yadda tashoshi waɗanda masu tsatsauran ra'ayi suka mallaka a shafukan sada zumunta ke ta murna da nasarar da Taliban ta samu.