2025 ce ta fi kowacce tayar da hankali a rahotanni da na yi - John Simpson

Gargaɗi: Wannan rahoto na ɗauke da bayanai masu tayar da hankali.

Na yi rahoto kan yaƙe-yaƙe fiye da 40 a faɗin duniya a aikina na jarida, tun daga shekarun 1960.

Na ga yadda yaƙin Cacar Baka ya fara da kuma yadda ya yi ƙasa. To amma ban taɓa ganin shekara mai tayar da hankali kamar 2025 ba saboda yawan rikice-rikice da suka yi ta faruwa.

Shugaban Ukraine Volodymyr ya yi gargaɗin cewa rikicin da ke faruwa a kasarsa ka iya zama yakin duniya. Bayan kwashe shekaru kusan 60 ina lura da yaƙe-yaƙe to ina jin a jikina cewa abin da ya faɗa gaske ne.

Gwamnatoci mambobin ƙungiyar tsaro ta Nato sun kasance a cikin halin ko-ta-kwana domin mayar da martani idan har Rasha ta katse wayoyin ƙarƙashin teku da ke tafiyar da harkokin latironi ga yammacin Turai.

Ana zargin jirginsu maras matuƙi na taƙalar tsarin tsaron ƙasashen na Nato. Masu yi musu kutse sun fito da wasu hanyoyi na hana ma'aikatu da manyan ma'aikatu aiki.

Hukumomi a yammaci suna da tabbacin cewa hukumar leƙen asiri ta Rasha tana kashe waɗanda ke hamayya da gwamnati wandanda ke neman mafaka a turai.

Wani bincike da aka fara kan yadda aka kashe tsohon ma'aikacin leƙen asirin Rasha a Salisbury, Sergei Skrypal a 2018 da kuma kisan Dawn Sturgess da guba, ya ƙarƙare cewa harin na shugabanni ne na Rasha. Hakan na nuni da cewa daga shugaban Rashar ne, Vladimir Putin.

Yadda shekarar ta zama ta daban

Shekarar 2025 ta zamo mai cike da yaƙe-yaƙe.

Ukraine na daga ciki, inda Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ta ce farar hula 14,000 sun mutu. A Gaza kuma inda Firaiministan Isra'ila, Benjamin Netanayhu ya yi alƙawarin ɗaukar ’mummunar ramuwar gayya" bayan da Hamas ta kai wani hari a Isra'ilar a ranar 7 ga watan Okotoban 2023 inda ya yi sanadiyyar mutuwar mutum 120,000 sannan suka yi garkuwa da mutum 251.

Kuma tun lokacin ne dakarun Isra'ila suka kashe Falasɗinawa fiye da 70,000 da suka haɗa da mata da ƙananan yara 30,000 kamar yadda ma'aikatar lafiya ta Gaza ta shaida, alƙaluman da kuma Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ta yi amanna da su.

A hannu ɗaya kuma akwai mugun yaƙin basasa tsakanin ɓangarorin sojojin Sudan. A tsawon shekaru biyu an kashe farar hula fiye da 150,000 sannan an tilasta wa mutum fiye da 12 yin hijira.

Wataƙila, idan da a ce wannan ne kawai yaƙi a 2025, duniya za ta iya tsayar da shi to amma ba shi kaɗai ba ne.

Banda Yaƙin Cacar-Baki, mafi yawan rikice-rikicen da na ruwaito a tsawon shekaru sun kasance ƙanana amma masu haɗari, amma kuma ba su kai matakin barazana ga zaman lafiyar duniya gaba ɗaya ba.

Wasu rikice-rikice kamar Vietnam da yaƙin Gulf na farko, da yaƙin Kosovo a wasu lokuta sun yi kama da waɗanda za su iya rikidewa zuwa wani abu mafi muni, amma hakan bai taɓa faruwa ba.

Manyan ƙasashen duniya sun yi taɓa fargabar cewa yaƙin ƙasa ɗaya zai iya rikiɗewa zuwa yaƙin nukiliya.

"Ba zan fara yaƙin Duniya na Uku don ku ba," in ji Janar na Birtaniya Sir Mike Jackson a rediyo a Kosovo a shekarar 1999, lokacin da babban jami'in Nato ya umurci sojojin Birtaniya da Faransa su ƙwace filin jirgin sama a Pristina bayan sojojin Rasha sun isa wurin farko.

A shekara mai zuwa wato 2026, duk da cewa Rasha ta lura da rashin sha'awar Shugaba Trump game da Turai, tana nuna shirin samun iko mafi girma.

A farkon watan nan, Putin ya ce Rasha ba ta shirin yaƙi da Turai, amma a shirye take "yanzu" idan har yaƙin Turawa suke so.

A wani taron talabijin, ya ce: "Ba za a sami wata matsala ba idan kuka girmama mu, da muradunmu kamar yadda muke yi ƙoƙari koyaushe mu girmama naku."

Amma a halin yanzu, Rasha, babbar ƙasa mai ƙarfi a duniya, ta kai hari kan wata ƙasa mai 'yanci a Turai, abin da ya yi sanadiyyar mutuwar mutane da yawa ciki har da sojoji da fararen hula.

Ukraine na zargin Rasha da sace aƙalla yara 20,000.

Kotun hukunta manyan laifuka ta duniya (ICC) ta bayar da umarnin kama Shugaban Rasha, Vladimir Putin, saboda hannusa a wannan lamari, hukuncin da Rasha ta nuna rashin amincewa da shi.

Rasha na cewa ta kai harin ne don kare kanta daga barazanar Nato, amma Shugaba Putin ya nuna wani dalili da ya haɗa da burin dawo da ikon Rasha a yankin da ke kewaye da ita.

Rashin amincewar Amurka

Na fahimci cewa a cikin wannan shekarar ta 2025, an ga wani abu da yawancin ƙasashen Yamma suka ɗauka ba zai taɓa faruwa ba wato yiwuwar shugaban Amurka ya juya baya ga tsarin tsaro da aka kafa tun bayan Yaƙin Duniya na Biyu.

A sabon rahoton dabarun tsaron ƙasa na gwamnatin Trump, an ce Turai na fuskantar "babbar barazanar samun koma-baya."

Kremlin ya yi maraba da wannan rahoto, yana mai cewa ya dace da irin hangen nesan da Rasha ke da shi.

A cikin Rasha kuma, a cewar wakilin Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya kan haƙƙin ɗan'adam, Shugaba Putin ya murƙushe mafi yawan masu adawa da shi da kuma yaƙin Ukraine.

Sai dai duk da haka, Putin na fuskantar matsaloli a gida, ciki har da yiwuwar hauhawar farashi da raguwar kuɗin shiga na man fetur, da kuma ƙarin haraji domin samun kuɗin yaƙi.

Tattalin arziƙin ƙasashen Tarayyar Turai ya ninka na Rasha sau 10, kuma ya fi haka ma idan aka haɗa da Birtaniya.

Yawan al'ummar Turai, kimanin mutum miliyan 450, ya fi na Rasha sau uku, wadda ke da miliyan 145.

Duk da haka, ƙasashen Yammacin Turai sun yi ta nuna tsoro na rasa jin daɗin rayuwarsu, kuma har zuwa kwanan nan ba sa son kashe kuɗi wajen kare kansu muddin suna iya shawo kan Amurka ta ci gaba da ba su kariya.

Amurka ma yanzu ta sauya. Ba ta da tasiri kamar da, ta fi karkata zuwa harkokinta na cikin gida, kuma ta bambanta da Amurkar da na yi aikin ɗauko rahoto.

Kamar yadda ya kasance a tsakankanin shekarun 1920 da 1930, yanzu Amurka na son mayar da hankali kan muradunta na cikin ƙasa ne kawai.

Ko da Shugaba Trump ya rasa ƙarfi sosai a zaɓen majalisa na tsakiyar wa'adi a shekara mai zuwa, akwai yiwuwar ya yi nasarar canja akalar siyasar Amurka, ta yadda ko wani shugaban Amurka ya zo a shekarar 2028, wanda yake goyon bayan Nato zai yi wahala ya yi gaggawar taimakon Turai.

Barazanar faɗaɗa rikici

Shekara mai zuwa, 2026, na nuna cewa za ta kasance mai matuƙar muhimmanci.

Shugaban Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, na iya ganin dole ya amince da yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya.

Tambayar ita ce: shin za a samu isassun tabbacin tsaro da za su hana Shugaba Putin sake dawowa da wata buƙata a nan gaba?

Turai za ta ɗauki nauyi mafi girma wajen ci gaba da tallafa wa Ukraine, amma idan Amurka ta juya baya ga Ukraine, kamar yadda take yin barazanar hakan a wasu lokuta, hakan zai zama nauyi mai wahalar ɗauka.

Rawar da China za ta taka

A ɓangaren China, President Xi Jinping ya yi barazana ga tsibirin Taiwan. A shekara biyu da suka gabata, daraktan hukumar leƙen asiri ta Amurka ta CIA William Burns ya ce Xi Jinping ya umarci sojojin ƙasarsa su fara shirin afka wa Taiwan a shekarar 2027.

Za a yi tunanin China na da ƙarfi da arziki a yanzu, don haka bai kamata ta damu da ra'ayin mutane ba. Amma ba haka abin yake ba. Tun bayan hargitsin Deng Xiaoping a shekarar 1989, wanda ya biyo bayan kisan kiyashin Tiananme, sai shugabannin ƙasar suka fara sa ido kan abin da ƴan ƙasar suke so.

Abin da ya faru a 4 ga Yunin 1989 ba abu ba ne mai sauƙi kamar yadda wasu ke tunani. Sojoji ne ɗauke da bindiga suka riƙa buɗe wuta kan ɗalibai.

Bayan wannan sai mutane da dama ciki har da ma'aikata suka fara zanga-zanga, inda suka ƙuduri aniyar amfani da kashe ɗaliban domin yunƙurin kifar da gwamnatin ƙasar.

Kwana biyu bayan lamarin ne na shiga garin, inda na ga aƙalla ofishin ƴansanda biyu da na jami'an tsaron sa kai guda uku da aka ƙona. A wani layin kuma an kashe ɗansanda, aka ƙone shi.

Na daɗe ina ɗauko rahoto daga China tun daga shekarar 1989 har zuwa lokacin da ƙasar ta kafu ta yi arziki. Na taɓa kasance na kusa da wani babba abokin hamayyar Xi mai sua Bo Xilai.

A shekarar 2013 ne aka wa Xilai ɗauren rai da rai bayan samunsa da laifin cin hanci da kashe kuɗi ta hanyar da ba ta dace.

Amma duk da haka, alamu na nuna cewa 2026 za ta yi kyau. Lallai China za ta ƙara shirin a yunƙurinta na ƙwace Taiwan - babban burin Zi Jinping.

Wataƙila a kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Ukraine, amma dole ya kasance Putin ya samu abin da yake so.

Idan kana tunanin yaƙin duniya na III yaƙi ne da za a yi amfani da makaman nukiliya, to lallai ka canja tunani. Akwai yiwuwar yaƙi ne ta bayan fage ta hanyar amfani da salon diflomasiyya da soji wajen kassara abokan gaba.

Kuma tuni an fara wannan sabon salon yaƙin.