Dalilai biyar da suka sa Kamala Harris ta faɗi zaɓe

Donald Trump ya lashe zaɓen shugabancin Amurka, inda ya kafa tahirin komawa fadar White House bayan kayar da mataimakiyar shugaban ƙasar Kamala Harris.

Ba kamar yadda mutane da dama suka yi tsammani ba— ba kamar yadda aka fara ƙidaya ƙuri'a a 2020 ba, a wannan karon Trump ne ya fara shiga gaba tun da farko, kuma ya ci gaba da zama a kan gaba har ƙarshe, bayan da mafi yawan jihohi masu muhimmanci suka zaɓe shi.

Harris - wadda ta yi wa jam'iyyar Demokrats takara, a lokacin da Shugaba Joe Biden ya ce ya haƙura da takarar cikin watan Yuli - ita ce mace ta biyu da ta yi rashin nasara a hannun Trump, bayan Hillary Clinton a 2016.

A nan mun duba dalilai biyar da suka sa Harris ta sha kaye a hannun Trump.

Tattalin arziki

Duk da cewa an samu raguwar marasa aikin yi, da ƙarfin kasuwannin hannayen jari, mafi yawan Amurkawa na kokawa kan ƙaruwar farashin kayyaki, kuma tattalin arziki na daga cikin manyan abubuwa da masu zaɓe ke la'akari da shi.

Hauhawar farashi - wadda ta kai matakin da ba a taɓa gani ba tun 1970 bayan annobar korona - ta bai wa Trump damar aza ayar tambaya kan 'yan jam'iyyar Demokrats cewa: ''Shin sai yanzu ne za ku iya bayan shafe shekara huɗu ba ku iya taɓuka komai ba?''

A 2024, masu zaɓe a faɗin duniya (Amurkawa) sun dawo daga rakiyar jam'iyya mai mulki, sakamakon ƙaruwar farashin kayyaki da aka samu bayan annobar korona. Don haka lokacin zaɓen ya zo wa Amurka cike da yunwa buƙatar canji.

Mutum guda cikin huɗu ne ne Amurka ya gamsu da manufofin ƙasar kan tattalin arziki, yayin d akashi biyu cikin uku ke da ra'ayin canji game da tattalin arziki.

"Hauhawar farashi - da ta faru sakamakon kashe kuɗi da gwamnatin Biden ta yi kan wasu shiye-shirye - ta zama wani al'amari da masu kaɗa ƙuri suka yi la'akari da shi cewa ƙudurin gwamnatin Biden ne zai ci gaba idan Kamala Harris ta yi nasara'', kamar yadda Micheal Hirsh, mai sharhi kan manufofin ƙasashen waje ya bayana.

Rabin masu kaɗa ƙuri'a sun ce sun gwammace da Trump maimakon Harris idan ana batun tattalin arziki ne - wanda kuma shi ne dalilin da ya sa kashi 31 cikin 100 na masu zaɓe suka fito, kamar yadda ƙuri'ar jin ra'ayin jama'da da CNN ta gudanar ya nuna.

Rashin farin jinin Biden

Harris ta ayyana kanta a matsayin 'yar takarar kawo sauyi, amma a matsayinta na mataimakiyar Biden, ta sha wahalar nesanta kanta daga ubangidan nata, wanda farin jininsa bai wuce kashi 40 cikin 100 a tsawon mulkinsa ba.

Duk da haka, ta ci gaba da yi masa biyayya, duk da Amurkawa sun bayyana damuwarsau kan yadda gwamnati ke wasarere da batun hauhawar farashi da rikicin kan iyakar Amurka da Mexico.

An ga misalin haka, kamar yadda masu sharhin siyasa suka bayyana, a lokacin da Harris ta bayyana a wani shirin gidan talbijin na ABC a watan da ya gabata.

Da dama suna ganin ta samu damar gabatar da kanta ga Amurkawan da ba su san asalinta ba, amma a maimakon haka sai Harris ta riƙa kame-kame game da bayanin yadda za ta bambanta gwamnatinta da ta Biden, inda har ta ce '' hakan bai zo tunanina ba''.

Baƙin haure/zubar da ciki

Baya ga batun tattalin arziki, zaɓen na kuma tattare da batutuwan da suka shafi rayuwa.

Jam'iyyar Demokrat ta yi ƙoƙarin jan hankalin masu zaɓe ta hanyar bayar da damar zubar da ciki, yayin da Trump ya mayar da hankali kan batun bauƙin haure.

Samun adadi mafi yawa na baƙin haure a lokacin mulkin Biden da kuma tasirin kwarararsu zuwa jihohin da ke nesa da kan iyaka ya sa masu zaɓe aminta da ƙudirin Trump, kamar yadda ƙuri'ar jin ra'ayi da cibiyar Pew Research ta gudanar.

Duk da cewa Harris ta zafafa yaƙin neman zaɓenta kan maido da 'yancin zubar da ciki, hakan ya ba ta kashi 54 cikin 100 na ƙuri'un mata, sabanin Trump da ya samu kashi 44 na ƙuri'un matan, kamar yadda ƙuri'ar jin ra'ayi da cibiyar bincike ta Edison ta gabatar.

To amma duk da haka ba ta samu ƙuri'un matan da Biden ya samu ba a 2020, inda ya samu kashi 57 cikin 100, saɓanin 42 da Trump ya samu a lokacin.

Kashi 54 na waɗanda suka zaɓi Turmp maza ne yayin da mata suka kasance kashi 44.

Abin mamaki batun zubar da ciki bai yi tasiri sosai ba kamar 2022, lokacin da aka gudanar da zaɓen rabin wa'adi, lokacin da jam'iyyar Demokrats ke ganin tana kan ganiyarta.

Rashin karɓuwa tsakanin baƙaƙe Latinos

Komawar Trump fadar White House ta ƙara tabbata ne bayan ya lashe jihar Pennsylvania mai ƙuri'ar masu zaɓe 19 - jihar da da sau ɗayar kawai jam'iyyar Democrats ta faɗi zaɓe a cikinta tun 1988, lokacin da Trump ya doke Hillary Clinton a 2016.

Gangamin yaƙin neman zaɓen Trump ya mayar da hankali kan jihohi marasa tabbas da ake yi wa laƙabi da ''Sun Belt", wato Arizona da Nevada da Georgia da kuma North Carolina, cike da fatan samun nasara a jihohin, to amma wannan dabara da alama ba ta yi nasara ba.

Galibi magoya bayan Democrats baƙaƙen fata ne da Latinos (masu tsatson Hisfaniya da Sifaniya da 'yan yankin Latin) da kuma matasa, haka kum Harris ta samu goyon bayan fararen fata tsakanin 'yan Boko, amma hakan bai iya Trump doketa a jihohin ba.

Ƙuri'art jin ra'ayin Edison ta nuna cewa Harris ta samu kashi 86 na ƙuri'un baƙaƙen fata, saɓanin Trump da ya samu kashi 12 , sannan ta samu kashi 53 na ƙuri'un Latino, yayin da Trump ya samu kashi 45 na ƙuri'unsu.

Amma a 2020 Biden ya samu kashi 87 na ƙuri'un baƙaƙen fata, yayain da ya samu kashi 65 na ƙuri'in Latino.

A wani babban sauyi da ka gani a zaɓen na bana, Trump ya samu ƙuri'u mafi yawan na maza 'yan Latino fiye da Haris da ta samu kashi 44, saɓanin abinda Biden ya samu a 2020 inda ya samu kashi 59 na ƙuri'n maza 'yan Latino, maimakon Trump da ya samu kashi 36.

Idan aka kwakwanta da nasarar Biden a 2020, Harris ba ta samu karɓuwa a gundumomin karkara na jam'iyyar Republican ba, don ko abin da Clinton ta samu a 2016 ba ta samu ba a wuraren.

Mayar da hankali sosai kan Trump

kamar yadda Hillary ta riƙa yi a 2016, Harris ta mayar da hankali sosai kan sukar Trump da rashin dacewarsa da shugabancin Amurka.

Da farko, Harris ta ɗauki takarar a matsayin ƙuri'ar raba gardama kan Trump. Amma a makonin ƙarshe na yaƙin neman zaɓen ta zafafa sukar Trump, tana mai kiransa da ''mai kama-karya' da wanda ''ba zai iya ba'', tana mai kawo misali da iƙirarin da tsohon shugaban ma'aikatan fadar White House, John Kelly kan zargin gwamnatin Trump da aƙidun Hitler.

Ta ayyana zaɓe a matayin yaƙin tabbatar da Dimkraɗiyya, kamar yadda Biden yake nanatawa kafin ya bayyana haƙura daga takara a watan Yuli.

"Kamala Harris ta yi rashin nasara a zaɓen nan a lokacin da mayar da hankalinta kacokan kan sukar Donald Trump," kamar yadda Frank Luntz - da ya jagoranci ƙuri'ar jin ra'ayin jama'a - ya bayyana a shafinsa na X.

"Dama masu zaɓen sun san Trump, don haka suna san sanin abin da Harris za ta yi a kwanakinta na farko a shugabancin ƙasar."