Ibitero vya Israel na Irani: Haribazwa vyinshi ku bintu bibi bishobora gushika

Muri iki gihe, intambara hagati ya Israel na Iran isa n'iyikiri hagati y'ibi bihugu bibiri. Mwishirahamwe ONU be n'ahandi babandanya gutera akamo impande zompi ko zokwigumya.

Ariko none vyogenda gute ari nka hamwe vyobandanya vyica amatwi? Vyogenda gute ari nka hamwe ibintu vyoyangara intambara ikarandaranda?

Ng'ibi bimwe mu bintu nyamukuru biteye ubwoba bishobora gushika.

Amerika kwinjizwa mu ntambara

Nubwo Reta Zunze Ubumwe zibandanya zihakana, Irani yemeza neza ko ingabo za Amerika zarekuye Israel gukora ibi bitero zongera kandi, nubwo bitoba ari ku mugaragaro, zirabishigikira.

Irani irashobora kurasa ibibanza vya Amerika mu Buseruko bwo Hagati – nko kw'ikambi y'ingabo zidasanzwe muri Iraki, ibigo vya gisirikare mu Kigobe, hamwe n'ibivyo vy'ubuserukizi muri ako karere. Ingago z'imihari ikoreshwa na Irani - Hamas na Hezbollah – zishobora kuba zaragabanutse, ariko inyeshamba ziyishigikiye muri Iraki ziracafise ibirwanisho kandi zihagaze bwuma.

Amerika yaragize ubwoba ko ibi bitero vyashoroa kuba, ica iba iratahukanye bamwe mu ngabo zayo. Mu butumwa itanga ku mugaragaro, Amerika igabisha ishimitse Irani ku ngaruka z'igitero ico ari co cose ku bibanza vya Amerika.

Ni igiki coshika ari nka hamwe hoba Umunyamerika yicwa, nk'i Tel Aviv canke ahandi?

Donald Trump arashobora kwisanga ari ngombwa ko afata ingingo. Umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Israel Benjamin Netanyahu kuva kera yamye yagirizwa ko aryosharyosha Amerika kugira imufashe gutsinda Irani.

Abihweza ibintu n'ibindi mu vya gisirikare bavuga ko Amerika yonyene ari yo ifise indege zitera amabombe hamwe n'ibibombe bishika mu kuzimu, bishobora kwinjira kure cane bigasambura ibigo vya nikleyeri vya Irani vyo mu kuzimu, cane cane ico muri Fordow.

Mu mugambi wiwe wa MAGA (Make America Great Again, icivugo twogereranya na Gusubiza Amerika ububasha bwayo bwo hambere), Trump yiyemeje ko atazotanguza ico yita "intambara zidahera" mu Buseruko bwo Hagati. Ariko aho nyene, Abarepubulikani benshi bashigikiye reta ya Israel n'icipfuzo cayo co kubona ko hageze ko intwaro ihindura muri Irani.

Ariko, ari nka hamwe vyoba ngombwa ko Amerika yogira uruhara nayo ikinjira mu ntambara, iki ni icerekana ko ibintu vyoba vyunyutse, kandi bigashobora kwandurukamwo akarambaraye.

Ibihugu vyo mu Kigobe kwinjizwa mu ntambara

Irani inaniwe no gusambura ibigo vya gisirikare n'ibindi bibaza vya Israel bicungerewe cane, aho rero ishobora kwama itera ibisasu vyayo vya misire ku bibanza vyoroshe vyo mu Kigobe, cane cane ku bihugu Irani ifata ko vyagiye bifasha kandi bitera intege abansi bayo kuva kera.

Hari n'ibibanza n'ibigo ntanganguvu vyinshi mu karere. Wibuke ko Irani yagirijwe kurasa ibigo vy'igitoro vya Arabia Sawudite mu 2019 hanyuma abarwanyi b'aba-Houthi ikoresha bakarasa ibibanza biri muri Emira Zunze Ubumwe z'Abaradu mu 2022.

Kuva ico gihe harabaye utwigoro tw'ubwoko bwose two kunywanisha Irani na bimwe mu bihugu vy'akarere.

Ariko ibi bihugu ni vyo birimwo ibigo vy'indege z'intambara za Amerika. Bimwe kandi – mu mpisho – vyarafashije gukingira Israel ibisasu vya misire vya Irani mu mwaka uheze.

Ari nka hamwe ibihugu vyo mu Kigobe vyoterwa, na vyo nyene bishobora guca bisaba ko indege za Amerika zija kubitabara, co kimwe na Israel nyene.

Israel ishobora kunanirwa no gusenyura ubushobozi bwa nikleyeri bwa Irani

Vyogenda gute ari nka hamwe igitero ca Israel cokwanka? Vyongenda gute ari nka hamwe ibigo vya nikleyeri vya Irani vyoba biri kure cane mu kuzimu, bikingiwe neza? Vyogenda gute ari nka hamwe Israel yoyanirwa n'ugusambura uranium ya Irani itunganijwe ku rugero rwa 60% ingana na kirogaramu 400 – urugero rwegereje cane urukenewe kugira ngo ishobore guhingurwamwo ibirwanisho, ikaba ishobora kuvamwo amabombe cumi n'ayarenga?

Bivugwa ko ishobora kuba inyegeje kure cane mu kuzimu, mu birombe vyo mu kinyegero. Israel ishobora kuba yishe bamwe mu bahinga ba nikleyeri ariko nta bombe n'imwe yoshobora gusambura ubumenyi n'ubuhinga bwa nikleyeri bwa Irani.

Vyogenda gute ari nka hamwe igitero ca Israel cokwumvisha abategetsi ba Irani ko inzira yonyene ihari yo kuzibira ibi bitero vya Israel ari ugukwakwanya vuba bwango ikaronka ikirwanisho ruhonyanganda c'ubumara?

Vyongenda gute ari nka hamwe abategetsi bashasha ba gisirikare boba bafise imitima igumye kandi ata bwitonzi bafise nk'abaherutse kugandagurwa bazoba basubiriye?

Ibi vyose nibura bishobora gutuma Israel ikora ibindi bitero, bigatuma akarere kose kama mu mvururu zidahera zo guterana ibisasu. Ngaha Abanya-Israel bafise icivugo gikaze: bacita "mowing the grass" (twogereranya no kugabanya ubushobozi bw'umwansi, aho kumutuza burundu).

Hariho uguhungabana kw'ubutunzi kw'isi yose

Igiciro c'igitoro kiza camaze kuduga.

Vyogenda gute ari nka hamwe Irani yogerageza kwugara umuhora wa Hormuz, bigatuma bigorana ukuntu igitoro cunguruzwa?

Vyongenda gute – ku rundi ruhande rw'akarere k'Abarabu – ari nka hamwe aba-Houthi muri Yemen bokwongereza akariro mu bitero vyabo ku mato aca mu Kiyaga Gitukura? Ni wo muhari usigaye ukoreshwa na Irani ufise kahise ko kuba ari ntahomfatwa kandi ufise amero yo gukora ikibi.

Ibihugu vyinshi kw'isi biramaze kwinjira mu ngorane y'ubuzima buzimvye. Iduga ry'ibiciro vy'igitoro ryoza kwunyura ibintu mu butunzi bw'isi yose busanzwe butorohewe kubera amakori ya Trump.

Kandi aha ntitwokwibagira ko umuntu umwe yungukira kw'iduga ry'ibiciro vy'igitoro ari Perezida Putin w'Uburusiya ashobora guca ubwo nyene yegeranya amamiriyaridi n'amamiriyaridi y'amadorari yokoresha mu ntambara yiwe muri Ukraine.

Intwaro ya Irani gusenyuka, hagasigara igihengeri

Vyogenda gute ari nka hamwe Israel yoshika ku ntego yayo yo kuva kera yo gusenyura intwaro ya Kisilamu muri Irani?

Netanyahu avuga ko intego nyamukuru yiwe ari ugusambura ubushobozi bwa nikleyeri bwa Irani. Ariko yarabitomoye neza mu butumwa bwiwe bw'ejo, aho yavuga ko intego yiwe yagutse irimwo guhindura ubutegetsi muri ico gihugu.

Yabwiye abanyagihugu ba Irani ko igitero ciwe cari ico "kubacira inzira kugira ngo mushikire ubwigenge" mu kwiganzura ico yise "intwaro mbi kandi y'agahotoro".

Isenyurwa ry'intwaro ya Iran rishobora kwakirizwa yompi na bamwe mu karere, cane cane abanya-Israel. Ariko igihengeri cosigara coba kimeze gute? Cogira ingaruka nyabaki umuntu atari yiteze? Intambara yo hagati mu gihugu muri Irani yoba imeze gute?

Benshi barashobora kwibuka ivyabaye muri Iraki na Libya igihe intwaro zavyo zatembagazwa.

Rero ibi vyose biravana n'ukungene iyi ntambara izogenda mu misi iri imbere.

Irani izokwihora gute – ku rugero rungana gute? Hanyuma kandi, Amerika ifise ubushobozi bungana gute bwo gutesha canke kugabanya ibikorwa vya Israel — nimba bishoboka?

Inyishu kuri ibi bibazo bibiri, ni zo shimikiro z'uko ibintu bigeye kumera.