Ni nde yaduze, ni nde yamanutse mu matora yo muri Afrika y'Epfo - kubera iki?

Umugambwe uri ku butegetsi muri Afrika y'Epfo, ANC (African National Congress) usa n'uwuza gutakaza ubwinshi mu nama nshingamateka ubwa mbere kuva Nelson Mandela awufashije gutahukana intsinzi inyuma y'intwaro ya karyanishamiryango ya apartheid mu 1994.

Ishobora kuba ari imburi yo kurangira k'ubwiganze bw'uwo mugambwe umaze imyaka mirongo uza imbere muri politike ya Afrika y'Epfo, n'ibibazo ku butegetsi bwa prezida Cyril Ramaphosa bikaba binuguruye ikiringo gishasha co kugira urunani muri politike.

Ng'ibi ibintu bitatu bisigura ingene Afrika y'Epfo yashitse aho, kubera iki, na kazoza k'ico gihugu.

1) Inyuma y'irindimuka rya ANC

ANC yigeze kuba ari umuhari wo kwiganzura wubashwe cane kandi uri mu mitima y'abanya-Afrika y'Epfo, ariko inyuma y'imyaka irenga mirongo itatu iri ku butegetsi, yabaye nk'icitiranwa c'igiturire n'intwaro mbi.

Inkurikizi ni uko uwo mugambwe waronse igihano mu matora yo ku musi wa gatatu, cane cane ku bakiri bato, bitavye ari benshi gutora abandi bahanganye n'uwo mugambwe - ikintu batari bwigere bagira mu yandi matora yaheze.

William Gumede arongoye ishirahamwe ataho ryegamiye muri politike Democracy Works Foundation avuga ati: "Bararambiwe n'ibiturire kandi barageramiwe n'ibura ry'akazi. Bitandukanije na ANC."

Bigaragaza kutabona ibintu kumwe hagati y'abakiri bato n'abakuze - abavyeyi babo barayoboka ANC, kuko babayeho mu gihe c'ivanguramoko bakaba banazi kahise ka ANC nk'umuhari wo kwibohora wakuye abirabure mu vyara vy'intwaro ya karyanisamiryango.

Ariko n'igitigiri c'abashigikiye ANC mu bakuze na co nyene caragabanutse, harimwo no mu gihugu hagati.

Prof Gumede yabwiye BBC ati: "ANC yaratakaje abanywanyi mu bisagara binini mu gihe giheze. Ubu na ho iriko irabatakaza no mu gihugu hagati."

ANC yaronse amajwi menshi atari bwaboneke mu 2004 aho yatsinze ku majwi 70%. Yagiye iratakaza ibice 3% canke 4% uko habaye amatora kuva ico gihe, ishika ku 57% mu 2019.

Muri aya matora, bigaragara ko amajwi yakorotse cane - nko kuva ku 8% gushika kuri 15%.

2) Ukugaruka kwa Zuma

Uwahoze ari perezida wa Afrika y'Epfo Jacob Zuma w'imyaka 82 yagarutse ashaka kwihora.

Yirukanywe ku butegetsi na ANC mu 2018, yagirizwa ibiturire, we yagumye ahakana.

Yaciye asubirirwa na prezida Cyril Ramaphoza.

Inyuma y'imyaka hafi itatu, yaciriwe gupfungwa amezi 15 azira kwanka kwubahiriza itegeko rya sentare ryo kwitaba akanama kariko karagira amatohoza kuri ico caha co kurya ibiturire mu myaka icenda yamaze ku butegetsi.

Prezida Ramaphosa yarekuye Zuma amaze amezi atatu gusa mw'ibohero mu ntumbero yo kugarukana umwumvikano n'ihumure mu bamushigikiye.

Ariko ashobora kwicuza kuba yarafashe iyo ngingo, kuko Zuma yasubiye muri politike ku murongo w'imbere mu mugambwe mushasha, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), bivuga 'Icumu ry'igihugu' [Spear of the Nation].

Ibiharuro vyerekana ko bamwe mu bahoze bashigikiye ANC benshi bimukiye mu mugambwe MK, ushobora gutsindira kurongora intara ya KwaZulu-Natal.

Mu gihe ibi vyokwemezwa n'ibiharuro vya nyuma bivuye mu matora, Zuma ashobora kuba umuhetsi w'iyo ntara kandi bishobora kumuha ikirindiro akoreramwo mu gutegura gukura ku butegetsi Ramaphosa - intumbero yiwe nyamukuru.

Yemera ko yabujijwe kwitoreza kuba umushingamateka ariko agishoboye gukina politike atagaragara.

Ugutera imbere kw'umugambwe MK kurasiga ubwenge. Uwo mugambwe wemerewe gukora mu kwezi kwa Nyakanga(9) guheze, Zuma na we amenyesha ko awimukiyemwo mu kwezi kwa Kigarama(12) kubera adashobora gutora Ramaphosa arongoye ANC. Kuva ico gihe, uwo mugambwe warahinduye politike ya Afrika y'Epfo ku buryo ata mugambwe n'umwe mushasha wari bwakore ibintu nk'ivyo mu mwanya muto gutyo kuva hasezerewe intwaro ya karyanishamiryango.

Paddy Harper akorera ikinyamakuru co muri Afrika y'Epfo Mail & Guardian newspaper co muri KwaZulu-Natal, avuga ko umugambwe MK utatwaye gusa abanywanyi ba ANC, ariko kandi waratwaye n'abo mu mugambwe EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), umugambwe uza mu kibanza ca gatatu mu yifise abanywanyi benshi muri Afrika y'Epfo gushika ubu.

Ibiharuro vy'imfatakibanza vyerekana ko MK iriko iragwanira ikibanza ca gatatu mu nama nshingamateka ya Afrika y'Epfo.

Mu ntara ya KwaZulu-Natal, amajwi ya EFF ashobora kuba musi ya 10% mu gihe ibintu vyobandanya uko bimeze ubu, n'aho uwo mugambwe wari wagize imyiyamamazo muri iyo ntara mu cizere co kwongerezayo abanywanyi, nk'uko Harper yabibwiye BBC.

EFF na MK bafise politike imwe yerekeye ubutunzi, harimwo kwaka amatongo abazungu no gushira mu minwe ya reta ibisata bimwe bimwe vy'ubutunzi.

Ariko Zuma yatsinze EFF mu ntara ya KwaZulu-Natal, aho asanzwe avuka.

Mu kwiyamamaza yashize imbere kuba ari umu Zulu, avuga kahise k'uwashinze iyo ntara, umwami Shaka.

Uwo yahoze ari umukuru w'igihugu yasavye ko hokwongerezwa ububasha bw'abami bose bo muri Afrika y'Epfo, ubu bafise ububasha bw'ivyubahiro gusa no gufasha reta gushikana iterambere hagati mu gihugu, aho bavuga bakwumvirwa.

Mu vyo umugambwe MK ushira imbere harimwo "Kugarukana amatongo yose ata muzibukiro utanzwe, kuyaha abantu bahagarikiwe na reta hamwe n'abategetsi kama [traditional leaders]."

Umugambwe MK wiyamamaje ushira imbere ivyo Zuma yaranguye muri reta, uvuga ko ubutunzi bwagabanutse cane ku ntwaro ya Ramaphosa.

Abanywanyi b'umugambwe MK kandi baranebagura Ramaphosa kuba yarugaranye abantu gusumba ahandi kw'isi mu gihe ca Covid, bakemeza ko vyatumye ubukene n'ubushomeri vyiyongera.

3) Politike y'inani

Akanama kubashwe cane muri Afrika y'Epfo, kagira ubushakashatsi ku buhinga n'amahinguriro (CSIR) n'urubuga rwa News24 website bategekanya ko amajwi ya nyuma ANC iza kuronka ashobora kuba ashika 42%.

Mu gihe vyogenda gutyo, amajwi ya ANC na Ramaphosa yoba ari akumiro.

Ashobora guca aremerwa n'umugambwe umusaba gutanga imihoho, mu gihe icegera ciwe Paul Mashatile anuganugwa nk'uwomusubirira.

Ramaphosa yajanye ANC mu myiyamamazo itagira inguvu, uwo mugambwe uri mu mwiheburo ku buryo vyabaye ngombwa ko uwahoze ari perezida Thabo Mbeki - co kimwe n'abandi bategetsi ubu bari mu kiruhuko c'izabukuru - batinze baza muri iyo myiyamamazo mu ntumbero yo kwongereza amajwi.

Perezida abonwa nk'umuntu atagira inguvu kandi atagira aho ahagaze. Ubwiwe yarisiguye yemeza ko inguvu nyinshi azishira mu "kunywanisha abantu" canke kubona kumwe ibintu.

Igihe yariko ariyamamaza, yagize ati: "Abashaka umukuru w'igihugu atwaza umukazo, ata co amaze, akora ibintu atiyumviriye, uwo ntazomusanga muri jewe."

Amahirwe y'uko Ramaphosa aguma ku butegetsi azokwongerekana mu gihe ANC yoronka hagati ya 45% na 50% inyuma yo guharura amajwi yose.

Aya ni yo majwi benshi mu bayoboke ba ANC biyemeje kuronka igihe bari mu myiyamamazo, kandi bakavuga ko uwo mugambwe ushobora kuguma ku butegetsi bunze urunani n'imigambwe mito mito - nka IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party), ufise abanywanyi benshi mu bwoko bw'aba Zulu muri KwaZulu-Natal, canke umugambwe w'aba Islam AI Jama-ah.

Ariko mu gihe ANC itoshikana 45%, ishobora gukenera umugambwe ukomeye kugira bunge urunani.

Iyi ishobora kuba nka EFF canke umugambwe ukomeye utavuga rumwe na reta, DA (Democratic Alliance) ushira imbere politike yo gushira mu minwe y'abikorera utwabo bimwe mu bisata vya reta, gukuraho umushahara muto ubaho hamwe na IFP.

Abanywanyi ba DA biboneka ko bongerekanye muri aya matora, aho uwo mugambwe wungutse amajwi y'abazungu hamwe n'abirabure babona ko bowuha amahirwe yo kwinjira muri reta.

Urunani urwo ari rwo rwose ku rwego rw'igihugu ruzofatira ku kungene baronse amajwi mu ntara - cane cane mu zizwi cane nka KwaZulu-Natal na Gauteng.

ANC ishobora kwemerera DA na IFP kurongora igihugu bari kumwe ku rwego rw'igihugu hamwe no muri KwaZulu-Natal.

Harper agira ati: "DA na IFP bokwemera uwo mwumvikano kugira bigize kure EFF NA MK ntibinjire muri reta."

Ikindi ANC yogerageza, n'ukugira urunani na EFF muri reta, co kimwe n'i Gauteng, aho ANC vyitezwe ko iza gutsindwa.

Malema, yahoze arongoye urwaruka rwa ANC, asa n'uko yiteguye kuganira kuri ico ciyumviro.

Mu ntango z'uku kwezi, ku rubuga rwa Daily Maverick rwo muri Afrika y'Epfo, umumenyeshamakuru Ferial Haffajee yanditse ko umukuru w'umugambwe EFF - yigeze guhamwa n'icaha co gushikiriza amajambo arimwo urwanko mu kuririmba ururimbo rwo kugwanya ivanguramoko 'Shoot the Boer [ashaka kuvuga abazungu] - "yaritaweho cane kandi nta na gashavu yigeze yerekana" mu myiyamamazo, mbere mu nama yagirishije mu kwezi kwa kane, yarashikirije iciyumviro ko aba EFF basangiye urunani ari ANC.

Haffajee yanditse ati: "N'aho abakora urudandaza hamwe n'amasoko batewe ubwoba n'urunani rwa ANC - EFF, ko rushoboka ni vyo biri imbere mu mugambi wa Malema wo gushika muri 'Union Buildings [Ahakorera reta].

"Igice kimwe c'abayoboke ba ANC barashigikiye urunani na EFF. Muri ico gihe nyene, abashigikiye Ramaphosa muri ANC bavuga ko urwo runani rushobora gutera ikibazo co gupfa canke gukira kw'akaranga k'uwo muhari wa kera wagwaniye ukwishira n'ukwizana.

Rero, ingingo zitoroshe gufata zirarindiriye ANC inyuma y'ayo matora atumye Afrika y'Epfo yinjira mu kiringo gishasha ca politike, aho abatavuga rumwe na reta bazoba bafise ububasha bwo gushiraho canke gukuraho reta.