Ibitero bya Ukraine: Bizasaba iki ngo igitero cyabo kigere ku ntego?

“Mwicyita igitero cyo kwigaranzura,” ni ko abanya-Ukraine bavuga. “Iki ni igitero cyacu, ni amahirwe yacu yo gusohora Abarusiya ku butaka bwacu.”

Yego, ariko se bizasaba iki ngo babigereho?

Icya mbere, reka ntiturangazwe n’imirwano ikomeye iheruka ariko yatumye Ukraine yisubiza uduce dutoya, imihana isa nk’itagituwe yo mu karere ka Donetsk ko mu burasirazuba no mu karere ka Zaporizhzhia ko mu majyepfo ashyira uburasirazuba.

Nyuma y’amezi ibintu bidahinduka ku rugamba, abasirikare ba Ukraine batangiye gufata amafoto bafite ibendera ry’igihugu cyabo nk’ikimenyetso cy’intsinzi ku rugamba no kuzamura ‘morale’ ku baturage b’iki gihugu.

Ariko mu by’ukuri muri rusange urebye uko ibintu bimeze, urugamba rurakomeye.

Akarere kagenzurwa n’Uburusiya gafite icyo kavuze cyane muri iyi ntambara, ni amajyepfo: aho ni igice kiri hagati y’umujyi wa Zaporizhzhia n’inyanja ya Azov.

Aha ni ho bita “koridoro y’ubutaka” ihuza Uburusiya n’umwigimbakirwa wa Crimea Uburusiya bwambuye Ukraine ku ngufu mu 2014, igice ubu urebye kitigeze kigira igihindukaho kuva Abarusiya bagifashemu byumweru bya mbere by’iyi ntambara mu mwaka ushize.

Ukraine nibasha kugicamo kabiri kandi ikagumana aho yafata, aho igitero cyayo kizaba cyageze ku kintu gikomeye.

Ibyo byatuma Uburusiya bugorwa no kugeza ibyangombwa nkenerwa ku ngabo zabwo ziri muri Crimea.

Ntabwo nabyo byaba bisobanuye kurangira kw’intambara – bamwe ubu banavuga ko ishobora kuzamara imyaka – ariko byaha Ukraine icyo kuganiriraho mu gihe ibiganiro by’amahoro bisa n’aho ari ngombwa, byaba byongeye kubaho.

Ariko Abarusiya barebye ku mbata (map), urebye mu gihe gishize, nabo bagera ku mwanzuro nk’uwo.

Bityo mu gihe Ukraine yoherezaga abasirikare bayo mu bihugu bigize OTAN kwitoza no gutegura brigade 12 zikoresha ibifaru n'imbunda za ruturamuri iki gitero, Moscow nayo yamaze icyo gihe yubaka icyo ubu bita “ubwirinzi bukomeye cyane ku isi”.

Ubwo bwirinzi bubuza Ukraine inzira igera ku mwaro – umwaro wayo, ntitubyibagirwe – Uburusiya bwubatse inzira ziteze za mine, amabimba manini y’isima azitira ibifaru (bita “amenyo ya dragon”), indaki, ibirindiro byo kurasiramo, n’imihora miremire kandi migari bihagije ishobora guhagarika ibifaru bya Leopard 2 cyangwa M1 Abrams.

Ibyo byose bizengurutswe n’ibirindiro byo kurasiramo intwaro za muzinga zo kurasa imvura y’ibisasu biremereye cyane izo modoka z’intambara za Ukraine z’ibifaru n’abazikoresha mu gihe baba baheze aho bategereje ababafasha kuhivana.

Ibimenyetso by’ibanze – kandi haracyari kare cyane muri uru rugamba – birerekana ko ubu bwirinzi bw’Abarusiya burimo gukora vuba.

Ukraine ntabwo irakoresha bwinshi mu bushobozi bwayo – rero ibi ni ibitero byo kuneka bigamije kumenya ahari intwaro za muzinga z’Uburusiya no gushakishaahari intege nke muri buriya bwirinzi bwubatswe.

Ukraine ifite ‘morale’ nk’intwaro ikomeye. Abasirikare bayo bafite ubushake ku rwego rwo hejuru bwo kurwana ngo babohore igihugu cyabo ahafashwe n’uwabateye.

Benshi mu ngabo z’Uburusiya si uko bimeze, kandi henshi imyitozo, ibikoresho n’ubuyobozi bwazo bari munsi y’iza Ukraine.

Abagaba bakuru b’ingabo za Ukraine i Kyiv bizeye ko nibashobora kubona intsinzi ntoya bagaca ‘morale’ ingabo z’Uburusiya bikagera no ku zindi ziri ku zindi ngerero, bizatuma abarisikare ba Ukraine batakaza ubushake bwo kurwana.

Ikindi Ukraine ifite ni ibikoresho n’intwaro zikomeye ibihugu bya OTAN byayihaye.

Bitandukanye n’imodoka z’ibifaru z’igihe cy’abasoviyeti, ibifaru bya OTAN n’imodoka z’intambara akenshi zibasha kwihanganira igisasu kizirashweho, nibura abazirimo ntibagire icyo baba kandi bagakomeza kurwana.

Ariko se ibyo bizaba bihagije mu guhangana n’ingufu za bya muzinga by’Uburusiya n’ibitero bya drone.

Uburusiya, nk’igihugu rutura, bufite ubushobozi bw’ibikoresho byinshi kurusha Ukraine.

Perezida Vladimir Putin, watangije iyi ntambara, azi neza ko nabasha guhagarika ingabo za Ukraine ntizigire imbere bikagera umwaka utaha, ko haba hari amahirwe ko Amerika n’inshuti zayo bazarambirwa gufasha iyi ntambara ihenze bagatangira gushyira igitutu kuri Kyiv ngo yemereamasezerano y'agahenge.

Icya nyuma, hari ikijyanye no kubasha kurwanira mu kirere no kutabishobora. Gutera umwanzi witeguye neza, udafite ubufasha bwo mu kirere ni ukwigerezaho.

Ukraine ibyo irabizi, ni yo mpamvu yakomeje gusaba Uburengerazuba kuyiha indege z’intambara za F16.

Amerika, izikora, ibi ntiyabyemeye kugeza mu mpera za Gicurasi(5), igihe imyiteguro ya mbere y’igitero cyo kwigaranzura cya Ukraine yari itangiye.

Mu buryo bw'ingenzi cyane kuri Ukraine, izi ndege za F16, ubundi zishobora guhindura byinshi, ubu zishobora kuzagera ku rugamba bitinze cyane kuburyo nta musanzu ukomeye zatanga mu ntangiriro z’ibi bitero byo kwigaranzura.

Ibyo ntibivuze ko abanya-Ukraine bazatsindwa. Kenshi berekanye ko bashoboye gukoresha ibyo bafite mu kugera ku ntego runaka.

Babashije kwirukana ingabo z’Uburusiya mu mujyi wa Kherson barashe cyane ahabikwa intwaro n’ibikoresho h'Uburusiya kugeza ubwo Abarusiya batari bagishoboye kugira icyo bageza ku ngabo zabo muri uwo mujyi wo mu majyepfo.

Ubu mu gihe bafite misile ziraswa kure za Storm Shadow bahawe n’Ubwongereza, abanya-Ukraine bazagerageza gukora nk’ibyo nanone.

Ariko kubera amakuru y'icengezamatwara ku mpande zombi kuri iyi ntambara, bishobora gufata ibyumweru cyangwa se n’amezi kugira ngo tugire ishusho nyayo y’ushobora kuzatsinda iyi ntambara amaherezo.