Latest opinion polls show Irish voters ready to say Yes to the European Union's Nice Treaty in Saturday's referendum, but political leaders are still worried that a low turnout could result in a No vote.

We have been worried and we are still worried

Irish official

A poll by the Market Research Bureau of Ireland (MRBI) published on Thursday suggests 42% will approve the treaty - which paves the way for the EU to admit a dozen new members in the next five years - and 29% will reject it.

A similar poll by the same organisation three weeks ago found 37% in favour of the treaty, and 25% against it.

But the Irish Government and the main political parties - all campaigning for a Yes vote - say there is no room for complacency.

"We have been worried and we are still worried," said a senior government source quoted in the Irish Examiner newspaper.

Focus on turnout

When Ireland held its first referendum on the treaty, in June 2001, the polls indicated a majority in favour of ratification.

But less than 35% of voters cast a ballot, and of those who did 54% rejected the treaty.

We have won the argument. Now what we have to do is win the turnout

Labour leader Ruairi Quinn

"This referendum could go down and will go down to the wire," Labour Party leader Ruairi Quinn told the Irish Examiner.

"We have won the argument. Now what we have to do is win the turnout."

The governing Fianna Fail Party has been concentrating, in the last two days of the campaign, on distributing tens of thousands of leaflets designed to reassure voters that the Nice Treaty will not affect Ireland's traditional neutrality.

As well as altering the way the European Union reaches decisions, partly by reducing the areas in which members can exercise national vetoes, the treaty also sets up an EU peacekeeping force of 60,000 soldiers.

Correspondents say neutrality is an emotive issue in a country where memories run deep of Irish men serving in British colonial armies.

Undecided

The MRBI poll supports earlier polls which have appeared to indicate a strengthening of the Yes vote.

Without the treaty, conclusion of the negotiations is not possible - full stop

EU Commissioner Guenter Verheugen

A poll for US-based bankers Citigroup, a week ago, found 44% in favour of a Yes vote, and 22% against.

That poll suggested 27% were undecided, while the MRBI poll puts the figure at 19%.

One of the arguments used by the Yes camp is that Ireland should give the applicant countries of eastern and southern Europe the chance to enjoy the same opportunities it took advantage of when it joined the EU.

On Thursday, the EU's Enlargement Commissioner, Guenter Verheugen, repeated that another No from Ireland would plunge Europe into a "big crisis".

"I don't know how we will get out of it," he told the Dutch parliament.