Monthly Outlook

High pressure should become more prominent during the coming week, bringing longer periods of drier weather to much of the UK, with above-average temperatures and some summer-like warmth in places.

Unsettled conditions could develop later in the week and into October.

Drier and warmer for a few days in most areas

Saturday will be rather windy and blustery with some showers scattered around, with these more widespread and persistent over western Scotland.

Sunday will become drier, calmer and sunnier, though, as high pressure starts to build.

Much of the coming week will be dominated by high pressure, leading to mostly dry and warmer weather for many for a few days, especially across England and Wales, where the warmth could feel quite summery in places.

Midweek may be wetter for a time in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland as a frontal system brushes past the north of the anticyclone.

In the second half of the week, there could be more of a chance of low pressure systems passing to the north-west of Scotland and dragging associated fronts and rain bands into the UK. The wettest, windiest weather is likely to be over north-western regions of the UK, with fronts weakening as they progress south-eastwards, and rain becoming more fitful or even dying out before reaching the south-east.

At the weekend, there may be a chance of high pressure rebuilding, with drier weather expanding back across much of the UK, except perhaps north-western areas.

Temperatures should stay above normal in most areas but occasional brief cooler interludes are possible, especially in the northern UK but also overnight elsewhere whenever conditions are clear and calm, with chances of fog patches.

Changeable but still warmer than average

The end of September and beginning of October should have low pressure systems coming from the Atlantic and passing near or across the northern UK, with associated frontal systems crossing other areas.

In between, there will be transient high pressure ridges, so conditions are going be changeable. Wet and windy periods will be interspersed with drier days, although with a few showers perhaps still dotted around.

Rainfall amounts should be near normal for the time of year in many areas. However, southern parts may be a bit drier with chances of longer drier periods, while the north could be somewhat wetter than normal, perhaps most especially in northern and western regions of Scotland.

Temperatures are most likely to be above normal when averaged across the week, although it should be less warm than the preceding week. Cooler days are likely behind frontal systems but no major dip in temperatures is expected.

Possibly wetter more widely by mid-October

The first half of October has quite a range of possible scenarios developing, so there cannot be much confidence in the forecast, especially rainfall patterns.

However, it is most probable that temperatures will stay above average, or at least near normal, and there are no indications yet of any early cold outbreaks. Nevertheless, there will still be chances of chilly and foggy nights and early mornings in places when conditions are still and clear enough.

Through the first full week of the month, a similar pattern is most likely, with more rain in the north-western UK than elsewhere, and high pressure might be strong enough to fend off some of the expected frontal systems, meaning near to below-average rainfall amounts are possible the farther south you are.

However, a wetter and windier trend could develop for all areas the farther we go towards mid-October, with indications of low pressure becoming more prevalent and with the potential for some deep systems.

Tuesday's outlook could give us a better idea of the scenario most likely to develop by mid-October.