Monthly Outlook

The second half of this week should bring seasonable temperatures, with a mixture of rain and snow in western and southern regions.

The pattern then shifts to milder conditions for the weekend and the first half of next week, with rain focusing more on the west and north.

After midweek, some chillier air could return at times, but no notable cold is expected. Early to mid-March may be somewhat drier, though uncertainty remains high.

Unsettled. Turning milder by the weekend

Wednesday and Thursday will be chilly and breezy, with outbreaks of rain and snow in Northern Ireland, Wales, and the southern half of England.

Snow will be largely confined to higher ground, but some is possible at lower levels as well. Scotland and northern England, however, should stay mainly dry while experiencing the coldest conditions, with frosty nights.

Most areas will turn dry by late Thursday, with a more widespread overnight frost. Rain will then spread in from the west on Friday, preceded by snow in northern areas but followed by a milder air mass.

The jet stream will shift farther northwards while high pressure builds over France, bringing more southwesterly to westerly flows. It will therefore be a mild weekend, with temperatures rising above average across the UK.

Another couple of frontal systems will move east and northeastwards, but most of the accompanying rain will be confined to northern and western regions.

Changeable. Variable temperatures but mostly mild

Next week, temperatures will most likely be above average overall. However, the position of the jet stream will meander northwards and southwards, so there will still be occasional, short-lived cooler spells across northern regions, particularly Scotland.

Although it will be milder elsewhere, temperatures may dip slightly toward the end of the week.

There will be further wet and windy periods as a sequence of low-pressure systems and associated fronts move through, and any drier, calmer interludes will probably be short-lived.

Most of the rain in the first half of the week should affect western and northern regions of the UK. It will be particularly mild for a couple of days, with temperatures possibly reaching the mid-teens Celsius in the southeast.

However, weather systems could take a somewhat more southerly track during the second half of the week, with just enough cold air on their northern flanks to bring some hill snow. Overall, there is no notably cold period on the horizon.

Possibly becoming drier.

Although confidence is even lower than usual for this period, there are some signs of high pressure building near the UK, leading to somewhat drier conditions, with precipitation amounts near or below average.

However, the position of this potential high will have a notable influence on both precipitation and wind. It will most likely linger near the UK through the first week of March, bringing relatively dry conditions, along with a risk of frost and fog.

Daytime temperatures should be at least near seasonal for most areas, and potentially above average, although some chillier conditions are possible across Scotland.

There is a small chance that high pressure could develop at higher latitudes, which would bring a risk of a colder week, though strong cold anomalies would not be expected. Wintry showers would then become more likely.

New longer-range models on Friday might give a better idea of any high pressure developments in early March, and the forecast will extend beyond mid-month.