Monthly Outlook

Changeable weather will continue into next week with occasional shots of chillier air but nothing long-lasting.

Drier conditions could develop later in April, with temperatures most likely to be generally near to a little above average.

Unsettled with day-to-day temperature variability

Wednesday will be largely dry but as high pressure topples south-eastwards the highest temperatures will be found farther east and south-east than on Tuesday. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be rather cloudy with isolated spots of rain possible but should brighten up later, while England and Wales will see the most sunshine.

Overnight frontal rain will spread across Northern Ireland and into Scotland, then through England and Wales on Thursday. It will weaken before reaching the south-east, which will have another warm day.

Chillier air and scattered showers will follow the front, some wintry over northern high ground, but these will die out overnight under a transient ridge.

Friday should stay dry in southern and eastern regions but Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to become wet and windy as another Atlantic front tries to move in. This could eventually bring rain across England as Wales as well during Saturday, followed by scattered showers by Sunday.

Changeable. Becoming a little warmer

Throughout the middle of April the broad pattern is most likely to feature high pressure anomalies to the east of the UK, often centred in and around Scandinavia, with low pressure favouring the central and eastern Atlantic.

This should draw in some milder or even warmer flows at times, mainly from midweek onwards and more especially across the southern UK. The northern UK may find itself in some brief chillier interludes, with temperatures closer to seasonal values averaged across the week.

High pressure may not be strong enough to completely rebuff the eastward advance of Atlantic low pressure circulations, with associated frontal systems occasionally trying to move across the UK. As a result, there will probably be a chance of rain edging in at times with some stronger winds, more so in western regions than in eastern areas. Alternatively, there is a chance that high pressure could build more to the north-east and north, allowing weather systems to affect the southern UK more.

Potentially drier overall

Later in April and into early May high pressure should still feature somewhere near the UK but its positioning has high uncertainty. The most likely outcome is for high pressure anomalies to become located at higher latitudes, potentially towards Iceland and Greenland as Scandinavian high pressure possibly weakens.

Its exact position will dictate temperatures and rainfall, but precipitation amounts should average out near or even a little below normal, and there will be higher chances of some relatively calm periods. There is a possibility that high pressure will be weaker, and thus an alternate scenario would eventually put the UK back into wetter weather.

Any significantly cold weather is a low risk, and temperatures should generally be near normal for the period. A few cooler spells might be possible, especially across the northern UK.

In Friday's update we will see if there is any higher confidence in potential high pressure developments, and the outlook will extend further into May.