Monthly Outlook

Temperatures will most likely stay below the January average until later this week, and further snow is expected.

A milder pattern should develop next week and beyond, at least across the southern half of the UK where rain will become more likely than snow. Colder outbreaks will remain probable across the northern UK, especially Scotland.

Cold, with snow in places

A weak high pressure ridge will move across later on Wednesday to deliver some drier weather with winds easing, but it will stay cold.

A developing low pressure system – "Storm Goretti" - is going to cross the southern UK on Thursday, bringing rain then accumulating snow to some of the southern half of the UK later in the day and overnight. Strengthening winds will cause some hazardous and disruptive conditions. The far south and south-west will be more likely to have rain mixing in. There will be a fine line between snow and rain due to temperatures hovering close to freezing.

The northern half of the UK will have cold but drier weather with just a few scattered wintry showers. Rain and snow will clear out of eastern England early on Friday to leave drier conditions everywhere with just some isolated wintry showers.

Saturday will be largely dry and bright thanks to another transient high pressure ridge, but still colder than normal. However, an Atlantic frontal system looks like heading in and bringing some more snow, at least over higher elevations, and more likely for northern and eastern areas. Some of it will potentially be rather heavy, and accompanied by strengthening winds. Rain is more likely in southern and western areas, due to some slightly milder air moving in with this system.

Less cold but snow remains possible at times

Next week Atlantic low pressure and frontal systems should continue to have an influence but there will also be high pressure at higher latitudes.

This could lead to a north-south split, with the southern half of the UK seeing unsettled conditions with periodic rain and perhaps some strong winds, but temperatures should be above normal overall. Brief colder shots between weather systems could still deliver some wintriness over higher ground.

The northern half of the UK should stay colder than average, with the lowest temperatures across Scotland, but also drier than the south, with occasional wintry showers and precipitation amounts near or lower than average.

Between the mild weather in the south and the cold in the north there will be chances of occasional snow along and north of frontal boundaries, so some areas could see further accumulating snow, most likely through central portions of the UK.

Unsettled with near-normal temperatures

The rest of January and the beginning of February are expected to have a similar pattern and should continue to be less cold than currently.

There will be some milder west to south-westerly flows, with low pressure lurking in the eastern Atlantic, occasionally pushing towards the UK to bring periods of precipitation – mostly rain. However, there could be brief colder interludes in between systems, with further chances of some wintry showers, chiefly in northern regions where temperatures are more likely to average out near or a little below normal, especially across Scotland.

There is a rather delicate balance expected with chances of high pressure building at times across high latitudes, or across Scandinavia and north-eastern parts of Europe. If this were to become stronger then there would be risks of a colder outbreak, although at the moment that does not look like the most probable outcome.

In Friday's outlook we will take a look farther to February, reassess the chances of the expected milder turn for much of the UK and see if there is any greater risk of a return to colder conditions.