Are we going to have a white Christmas this year?

As the big day draws ever closer, some of us might start to hope - or dream - of seeing some Christmas snowfall.

Christmas cards often depict scenes blanketed in snow. While this is a rare sight in much of the UK, a 'white Christmas' is more common than you might think.

Since the turn of the century, more than half of all Christmas Days in the UK have seen snow falling somewhere.

So although the odds are technically stacked in favour of a white Christmas, the detailed festive forecast for this year won't be confirmed just yet.

At this early stage what do we actually know about the chances of this Christmas being 'white'?

For a Christmas to be officially considered 'white', the snow doesn't need to be 'deep and crisp and even.'

In fact just a single snowflake has to be recorded falling at any point during the 24 hours of 25 December at any of the Met Office's network of around 300 observing stations.

The definition has changed over the years and has been broadened to include data from automated weather-recording stations as well as manned or manual sites.

Snow already lying on the ground on Christmas Day may make things look merry and bright, but it does not count under the official definition of a white Christmas.

Forecasting snow in the UK is notoriously difficult, and it is still too early to know for certain whether we will see a white Christmas in 2025.

Different long-range computer models are not in agreement about the details. However, when combining their output, the most likely scenario currently is for low pressure to be present somewhere near Iceland, whilst higher pressure near the Azores tries to build in towards the south.

This pressure setup would typically bring relatively mild south-westerly winds to the UK, with the wettest weather likely in the north and west, whilst drier conditions would be favoured further south and east.

However, there are hints of things turning colder and drier after 25 December, and timings and details may well change as we near Christmas.

The festive forecast will become much clearer about five days before Christmas, so keep an eye on the BBC Weather app or website for the latest updates.

You can also read our thoughts further ahead in our monthly outlook.

Since 2020, every year except 2024 has officially been a white Christmas. However, in each of these years very few places reported any snow actually settling on the ground.

The last time the UK saw a widespread white Christmas was back in 2010, when snow fell at 19% of weather stations, and very unusually, 83% of stations reported snow lying on the ground.

Whilst snow is more common between January to March than in December, odds are still pretty high that somewhere in the UK will see snow on December 25.

Over the past 64 years, there have been 41 white Christmases, meaning we are more likely than not to see one somewhere in the UK. The chance of festive snowfall varies a lot in different locations, with much better odds the further north and the higher up you venture.

Statistically places most likely to get a white Christmas Day are northern and eastern Scotland, northern England, north Wales and the north-west Midlands.

However, as our climate warms, winters in the UK are becoming milder and wetter.

Average temperatures have risen by around 1.3C since the industrial revolution, and whilst the Met Office say "this generally reduces the chances of a White Christmas" they also recognise that "the natural variability of the weather will not stop cold, snowy winters happening in the future".

This article was updated on Dec 1 to add more context and reflect the overall decrease in annual number of days of falling snow and sleet since the 1960's.

A further update on Dec 10 was made to reflect the most recent computer model predictions.