Dagaalka Ganacsi ee Maraykanka iyo Shiinaha: Sidee ayuu u saamaynayaa Afrika?

Madaxweynaha Maraykanka Donald Trump ayaa qaaday tallaabooyinkii ugu horreeyay ee waxa ay dad badani ku tilmaameen dagaal ganacsi oo uu ku qaaday qaar ka mid ah saaxiibbadii dhaqaale ee ugu waaweynaa dalkaas.

In kasta oo Madaxweyne Trump uu Isniintii hakiyay hanjabaaddiisii ahayd in uu kordhin doono canshuuraha badeecadaha laga keeno Mexico iyo Canada, isagoo ogolaaday in 30 maalmood dib loo dhigo arrintaas si loo helo tanaasul ku saabsan xuduudaha iyo la-dagaalanka dambiyada, haddana Maraykanku waxa uu bilaabay canshuur dhan 10% oo lagu soo rogay dhammaan badeecadaha laga keeno Shiinaha.

Iyadoo dad badani aaminsan yihiin in tallaabooyinka Maraykanku ay noqon karaan bilowga dagaal ganacsi oo ballaadhan, falanqeeyayaal ka kala socda Afrika ayaa qiimeynaya halka khataruhu uga imaan karaan qaaradda xilli laga cabsi qabo qalalaase dhaqaale oo caalami ah.

Dalalka Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Angola, iyo Koonfur Afrika ayaa ka mid ah dalalka xidhiidhka ganacsi ee ugu weyn ee Maraykanka la leeyhay Afrika, iyadoo uu jiro ganacsi laba-geesood ah oo muhiim ah oo badeecooyin iyo adeegyo ah.

Sida laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Wakiilka Ganacsiga ee Maraykanka, sanadkii 2022,

Maraykanku waxa uu Koonfur Afrika ka soo iibsaday badeecooyin qiimahoodu dhan yahay $14.6 bilyan, oo ay ka mid yihiin luul, dhagxaan qaali ah, iyo macdano kale. Badeecooyin kale sida dahabka, kookaha, uranium-ka, aluminium-ka, iyo birta la farsameeyay ayaa laga soo dhoofiyaa dalal kale oo Afrikaan ah oo ay ka mid yihiin Ghana, Ivory Coast, Gambia, iyo Senegal.

Sidoo kale isla sannadkaas, dalka ugu dadka badan Afrika ee Nigeria ayaa Maraykanka u dhoofiyay badeecooyin qiimahoodu ka badan yahay $4.8 bilyan, oo ay ugu waaweyn yihiin saliid caydhin, geedka kookaha, cuntooyinka xoolaha lagu quudiyo, iyo badeecooyin kale, halka ay Maraykanka ka soo iibsatay gawaadhi, mashiinno, iyo shidaal la sifeeyay.

Ganacsigan ballaadhan ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhici kara haddii Madaxweyne Trump uu go'aansado in uu canshuuraha cusub ku dabaqo dalalka xiddhiidhka ganacsi la leh ee Afrika.

Dalalka Afrika ayaa haatan ka faa'iideysanaya sharciga kobcinta ganacsiga iyo fursadaha Afrika (AGOA); kaas oo u oggolaanaya dalalka Saxaraha ka hooseeya ee Afrika inay badeecooyinkooda si canshuur la'aan ah ugu dhoofiyaan Maraykanka.

Sharcigan oo uu saxiixay Madaxweyne Bill Clinton sanadkii 2000 ayaa marar badan dib loo cusboonaysiiyay, iyadoo markii ugu dambeysay dib loo ansixiyay sanadkii 2015. Wuxuu ku eg yahay bisha Sebtembar ee 2025, iyadoo sharciga dib-u-habeynta AGOA ee 2024, kaas oo soo jeedinayay in la kordhiyo ilaa 2041, uusan ansixin ka hor intii aanu xafiiska ka tagin Madaxweyne Joe Biden.

Waxaa jirta cabsi ku saabsan in Madaxweyne Trump uusan taageeri doonin cusboonaysiinta sharcigan iyada oo ay qayb ka tahay siyaasaddiisa "America First" ee diiradda saaraysa danta Maraykanka.

"Marka canshuuro iyo waajibaadyo la soo rogo kadib dhicitaanka AGOA, ganacsiyada yar-yar ee Afrika ayaa si weyn u dhaawacmi doona," ayuu yiri Obiora Madu, Agaasimaha Guud ee Xarunta Afrika ee Sil-siladda Saadka, oo la hadlay BBC.

AGOA ayaa hadda u oggolaanaya 32 dal oo Afrikaan ah inay dhoofiyaan inta badan gawaadhida, kiimikooyinka, khamriga, birta, iyo kuwo kale oo badan.

Saameyn dhaqaale oo laga cabsi qabo ayaa horseedi karta hoos u dhac ku yimaada Wax-soo-saarka Guud ee Dalka (GDP), kaas oo cabbir u ah dakhliga guud ee waddan leeyahay.

Qaramada Midoobay ayaa saadaalisay in koboca GDP ee Afrika uu gaadhi doono 3.7% sanadka 2025, oo ka sareeya 3.4% la filayey 2024, halka Bangiga Horumarinta Afrika uu saadaaliyay koboc dhan 4.2% sanadkan, oo ka badan 3.8%-kii uu sanadkii hore saadaaliyey. Haddii ganacsigu hoos u dhaco, waxaa dhici karta in kobocani uu yaraado.

Falanqeeyayaashu waxa ay sidoo kale qiimeynayaan saameynta ay Afrika ku yeelan karto dhaqaalaha Shiinaha oo uu culays dhaqaale ku keenay canshuuraha cusub ee Trump.

Shiinaha ayaa ku dhawaaqay tallaabooyin aargoosi ah oo ka dhan ah go'aanka Madaxweynaha Maraykanka, iyaga oo soo rogay canshuur dhan 15% oo lagu soo rogi doono dhuxusha, gaaska dabiiciga ah ee la shido, iyo gawaarida laga keeno Maraykanka. Magaalada Beijing ayaa sidoo kale shaacisay inay qorsheynayso inay dacwad ka gudbiso arrintan, taas oo loo gudbinayo Ururka Ganacsiga Adduunka (WTO).

Sanadihii la soo dhaafay, Shiinuhu waxa uu si xawli ah ugu baahayey Afrika, isagoo noqday saaxiibka ganacsi ee ugu weyn qaaradda, iyada oo ganacsiga labada dhinac uu gaadhay rikoodh cusub oo dhan $282 bilyan sanadkii 2023.

Shiinaha wuxuu ka soo dhoofiyaa Afrika agab dabiici ah sida macdanta iyo shidaalka, halka uu u dhoofiyo badeecooyin warshadaysan.

Nigeria ayaa weli ah suuq weyn oo loogu talagalay badeecooyinka Shiinaha ee Afrika, iyadoo laga cabsi qabo in haddii suuqii Maraykanka laga xannibo, Shiinaha uu si weyn ugu fidi doono suuqyada Afrika, isagoo ka dhigi kara qaaradda meel uu alaabtiisa ka gado.

"Shiinaha waxa uu bilaabi karaa inuu qaaradda Afrika ku daad-gureeyo badeecooyin badan, taasoo Afrika u rogi doonta meel lagu qubo alaabooyinka Shiinaha, iyadoo halis gelinaysa soo-saarayaasha maxalliga ah," ayuu yidhi Dele Ayemibo, oo ah khabiir dhanka ganacsiga, oo la hadlay BBC.

Dalal Afrikaan ah ayaa muddo dheer la daalaa dhacayay badeecooyin tayo xun oo ka yimaada qaar ka mid ah dalalka Aasiya, inkastoo la sameeyay sharciyo iyo nidaamyo lagu xakameeyo dhoofinta badeecooyinkaas liita.

Haddana qaaraddu waxa ay weli la kulantaa khasaare dhaqaale oo baaxad leh oo ka dhasha arrintan.

Ururrada gaarka loo leeyahay ee Afrika ayaa ugu baaqay dawladaha Afrika inay ka faa'iideystaan xiisadda ganacsi ee taagan, iyagoo dhiirrigelinaya soo-saarayaasha maxalliga ah ee gudaha, kordhinta qiimaha lagu daro alaabaha dabiiciga ah, iyo horumarinta ganacsiga gudaha qaaradda.

Heshiiska Ganacsiga Xorta ah ee Qaaradda Afrika (AfCFTA) ayaan weli gaadhin heerkii laga filaayay tan iyo markii la hirgeliyay ku dhowaad shan sano ka hor.

Dhibaatooyin la xidhiidha kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha, caqabadaha ganacsiga, shabakadaha gaadiidka oo liita, iyo adeegyadii xuduudaha ayaa hakiyey hirgelinta AfCFTA, taas oo u baahan maalgashi balaadhan si loo dhiso nidaam waxtar leh.

"Dhaqaalaha Afrika waa inay kordhiyaan saameynta AfCFTA. Waa inay xoojiyaan mugga ganacsiga oo ay ka dhigaan mid shaqeynaya," ayuu hadalkiisa sii raaciyay Obiora Madu.

Isbahaysiga dhowr waddan oo ay aasaaseen Brazil, Russia, India, Shiinaha, iyo Koonfur Afrika oo loo yaqaan BRICS ayaa ujeedkiisu yahay xoojinta xidhiidhka dhaqaale ee dalalka xubnaha ka ah iyo in la yareeyo saameynta dollarka Maraykanka oo ah lacagta ugu weyn ee ganacsiga iyo kaydka caalamiga ah.

Dalal Afrikaan ah oo cusub oo iyana ku biiray isbahaysigaas waxaa ka mid ah Masar, Itoobiya, Nigeria, Algeria, iyo Uganda.

Toddobaadkii hore, Madaxweynaha Maraykanka Donald Trump ayaa uga digay dalalka xubnaha ka ah isbahaysiga BRICS inay beddelaan dollarka Maraykanka oo ah lacagta kaydka caalamiga ah.

Wuxuu mar kale ku celiyay hanjabaad uu horey ugu jeediyay, taasoo ahayd inuu soo rogi doono canshuur dhan 100% oo lagu soo rogi doono badeecooyinka laga keeno dalalkan, taasoo uu horey u sheegay toddobaadyo kadib markii uu ku guuleystay doorashadii madaxtinimada ee dhacay bishii November.