Cawaaqibta caalamiga ah ee dagaalka Iran: Billowga xilliga cusub ee tartanka nukliyeerka?

Tan iyo weerarradii Mareykanka iyo Israa'iil ay ku qaadeen Iran dabayaaqadii Febraayo, mid ka mid ah sababaha la soo bandhigay ayaa ahaa in laga hortago in Jamhuuriyadda Islaamiga ahi ay horumariso hub nukliyeer ah.

Waxaa isa soo taraya walaaca laga qabo in mid ka mid ah cawaaqibta colaaddan ay noqon karto bilowga tartan hub nukliyeer ah oo ka bilaabma Bariga Dhexe isla markaana ku fida meelo kale oo dunida ah.

Sida ay sheegeen khubaro ku takhasusay ka hortagga faafitaanka hubka nukliyeerka oo la hadlay BBC Brazil, xaaladda hadda jirta awgeed, ma aha oo kaliya dowladda Iran, balse dowlado kale ayaa laga yaabaa inay gaaraan gunaanad ah in dammaanadda ugu fiican ee looga hortagi karo weerarro suurtagal ah aysan ahayn diblomaasiyad ama hubka caadiga ah, balse ay tahay lahaanshaha bamka nukliyeerka si uu u noqdo awood ka hortag (deterrence) ah oo lagaga difaaco quwadaha waaweyn.

Iyadoo dalal ku yaalla Bariga Dhexe, laga bilaabo Imaaraadka Carabta ilaa Sacuudi Carabiya, ay la kulmeen weerarro aargoosi ah, dagaalkan ayaa sidoo kale keenay shaki ku saabsan awoodda Mareykanka ee uu ku xaqiijin karo ammaanka xulafadiisa.

Xaaladaha noocaas ah, waxaa sii xoogeysan kara aragtida ah in ku tiirsanaanta taageerada Mareykanka ay tahay mid khatar leh, taas oo ku qasbaysa dalalka inay raadiyaan awood nukliyeer oo ay iyagu leeyihiin si ay u abuuraan awood ka hortag ah.

Reed Pauley, oo ah saynisyahan siyaasadeed iyo borofisor ku takhasusay amniga iyo siyaasadda nukliyeerka ee Brown University ee Mareykanka, ayaa u sheegay BBC Brazil: "Waa is-khilaaf qaraar oo murugo leh in mid ka mid ah sababihii dagaalka loo adeegsaday uu ahaa in laga hortago in Iran ay hesho bam nukliyeer ah."

Wuxuu intaas ku daray: "Dowlad kasta oo ka badbaadda dagaalkan gudaha Iran waxay si dhab ah u qiimeyn doontaa sida ugu wanaagsan ee ay iskaga difaaci karto weerarro mustaqbalka, waxayna laga yaabaa inay ku soo gabagabeyso in hubka nukliyeerka uu yahay khiyaar u furan."

"Dagaalkan waxay u badan tahay inuu ka tago dowlad Iran ka talisa oo leh labadaba awood iyo dhiirigelin ay ku heli karto bamka nukliyeerka," ayuu sii raaciyay Pauley, oo ah qoraaga buugga The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Conundrum of Assurance.

John Erath, oo ah agaasime sare oo ka tirsan ururka Mareykanka ee Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, ayaa muujiyay walaac ku saabsan waxa uu ku tilmaamay "taxane go'aanno khaldan oo joogto ah oo ay qaadanayaan hoggaamiyeyaasha dalal kala duwan."

Erath wuxuu dib u milicsanayaa in xilligii weerarradii Israa'iil iyo Mareykanka ay ku qaadeen Iran xagaagii hore, ay weli socdeen wadaxaajoodyo ku saabsan barnaamijka nukliyeerka Iran, isla markaana sanadkan weerarradu mar kale bilaabmeen iyagoo dhexda socdaan wadaxaajoodyada.

"Intii laga sii wadi lahaa dhammaan waddooyinka wadaxaajoodka ilaa dhammaadkooda, Mareykanka iyo Israa'iil waxay go'aansadeen sanadkii hore inay weeraraan barnaamijka nukliyeerka Iran," ayuu Erath u sheegay BBC Brazil.

"Haddii silsiladdan go'aamada khaldan ay sii socoto, Iran waxay gaari kartaa go'aan ah inay ka ammaan badan tahay yeelashada hub nukliyeer ah, isla markaana ay go'aansato inay dhisto," ayuu yiri Erath.

Wuxuu intaas ku daray: "Sacuudi Carabiya horey ayay u sheegtay in haddii Iran ay hesho hub nukliyeer ah, ay iyaduna waddadaas raaci, waxaana suuragal ah in dalal kale oo gobolka ku yaalla ay sidaas oo kale sameeyaan."

Dhaxal-sugaha Sacuudiga, Maxammed bin Salman, ayaa marar badan sheegay in haddii Iran ay hesho bam nukliyeer ah, Sacuudi Carabiya ay iyaduna raaci doonto isla waddadaas.

Ukraine, Liibya, Kuuriyadda wuqooyi

Mid ka mid ah doodaha lagu difaacayo horumarinta hubka nukliyeerka ayaa ah in haddii Iran ay hore u haysan lahayd bam nukliyeer ah oo ka hortag ah, laga yaabo inaan la weerareen.

Ka hor colaadda Iran, dad badan oo falanqeeya arrimaha caalamiga ah ayaa tusaale u soo qaatay Ukraine, oo ah dal 1990-meeyadii ka tanaasulay hubkii nukliyeerka ee saddexaad ee ugu weyn dunida— taasi oo ahayd hanti ka hartay xilligii Midowgii Soofiyeeti—iyadoo lagu beddelay dammaanad amni oo ay bixiyeen Rushka, Mareykanka, iyo UK.

30 sano kadib, Ukraine oo aan lahayn bam nukliyeer ah oo ay isku difaacdo, waxaa weeraray Ruushka oo ah quwad nukliyeer leh. Libya ayaa sidoo kale mararka qaar la tusaaleeyaa, maadaama ay ka tanaasushay barnaamijkeedii nukliyeerka kadibna ay la kulantay isbeddel xukun oo xilka looga tuuray Qadaafi.

Dhanka kale, dad badan ayaa tilmaama Kuuriyada Waqooyi, oo saxiixday heshiiska ka hortagga faafitaanka hubka nukliyeerka, balse si rasmi ah uga baxday 2003. Maanta, waxay ka mid tahay sagaalka dal ee leh hub nukliyeer ah, waxayna ka badbaadday weerarro militari oo toos ah.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, inkastoo ay jiraan walaacyada iyo calaamadaha hadda jira, falanqeeyayaashu waxay ku adkeysanayaan in faafitaan cusub oo hubka nukliyeerka ahi uusan ahayn mid lama huraan ah.

Sida uu sheegay Reed Pauley: "Kaydka hubka nukliyeerka wuxuu waxtar u leeyahay ka hortagga, balse waddada lagu helo waa mid khatar badan leh."

Wuxuu intaas ku daray: "Sidaas darteed, waxaa macquul ah in dal uu ku tiirsanaado oo keliya hubka caadiga ah si uu u ilaashado ammaankiisa. Hubka nukliyeerka laga yaabee inuusan mudnayn dhibaatada iyo khatarta la socota."