Wetin Hezbollah, Israel and Iran fit do next?

Frank Gardner

BBC Security Correspondent

Di assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, di long-standing leader of Hezbollah by Israel, na major issue for di war wit di Lebanese militant group.

E don bring di region one step closer to a much wider and even more damaging conflict, di one wey fit pull for both Iran and di US.

So wia e fit likely to go from here?

Dat dey depend largely ontop three basic questions.

Wetin Hezbollah go do?

Hezbollah dey collect blow from different sides.

Dia command structure don dey separated and weak, wit more dan a dozen top commanders wey dem don assassinate.

Dia communications don get rofor-rofor wit di shocking explosions of its pagers and walkie-talkies, and many of dia weapons don dey destroyed by air strikes.

Di US-based Middle East security analyst Mohammed Al-Basha say: "Di loss of Hassan Nasrallah go get significant implications, potentially causing wahala for di group and e go scatta dia political and military strategies in short term."

But any expectation say dis anti-Israel organisation go suddenly give up and seek peace on Israel terms no dey likely to happun.

Hezbollah don already promise to kontinue di fight. E still get thousands of fighters, many of dem recent veterans of combat in Syria, and dem dey demand revenge.

E still get a substantial arsenal of missiles, many of dem long-range, precision-guided weapons wey fitcan reach Tel Aviv and oda cities.

Pressure go dey within dia ranks to use dose weapons soon, bifor dem go get destroyed.

But if dem use di weapons for mass attack wey go overpower Israel air defences and kills civilians, den Israel response go likely to be serious, and destroy Lebanon infrastructure, or even extending to Iran.

Wetin Iran go do?

Dis assassination na blow to Iran too as e be for Hezbollah. Dem already announce five days of mourning.

E don also take emergency precautions to hide away dia leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, in case dem wan assassinate am too.

Iran neva retaliate yet for di humiliating assassination of di Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh for Tehran guesthouse in July.

Wetin just happun go dey cause di regime to look how dem go take respond.

Iran get a whole galaxy of allied heavily-armed militias around di Middle East, di so-called "Axis of Resistance".

As well as Hezbollah, e get di Houthis for Yemen, and numerous groups in Syria and Iraq.

Iran fit also ask dis groups to step up dia attacks on both Israel and US bases for di region.

But wateva response Iran choose, e go likely be to trigger a war wey e fit dey hope to win.

Wetin Israel go do?

If anyone dey in any doubt bifor dis assassination, e suppose don clear by now.

Israel clearly no get intention of pausing dia military campaign for di 21-day ceasefire propose by 12 nations, including di closest ally, di United States.

Dia military reckon dme get Hezbollah for di back foot now, so e go wan press on wit offensive until di threat of dose missiles dey removed.

No surrender by Hezbollah. E dey hard to see how Israel fit achieve dia war aim of removing di threat of Hezbollah attacks witout sending in troops on di ground.

Di Israel Defense Forces don release footage of dia infantry training close to di border for dis veri purpose.

But Hezbollah don also spend di last 18 years, since di end of di last war, training to fight di next one.

For im final public speech bifor e die, Nasrallah tell im followers say an Israeli entering into south Lebanon go be "a historic opportunity", according to im words.

For di IDF, going into Lebanon go be relatively easy. But getting out fit take months - like Gaza.