Senate respond to Tinubu letter ontop Niger mata & decision wey Ecowas fit take as deadline near

Di Nigeria Senate don advise President Bola Tinubu say make e use diplomacy address di coup wahala wey happun for Niger Republic.

Dis na afta President Tinubu wey be di chairman of di Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) bin write to di National assembly to ask for dia approval to deploy di kontri military go Niger.

Nigeria president ask for di support of di lawmakers for di implementation of Ecowas resolutions on di political situation for Niger Republic.

For some tin wey dem no dey too do, di Senate hold sitting on Saturday to discuss di president request for dia executive session.

Dem no discuss di matter for open – na closed door session dem do wia dem spend more dan two hours to discuss di mata.

President of di Senate Godswill Akpabio tok afta di meeting say dia agreement na to advise president Tinubu to use tok-tok address di incident wey dey happun for Niger.

“Di Senate commend President Ahmed Bola Tinubu and oda Heads of States and goments Ecowas for dia prompt response and di position dem take on di unfortunate development for Niger Republic,” oga Akpabio tok.

Di lawmakers agree say make dia leaders meet wit di president as chairman of Ecowas to further “encourage oda leaders of Ecowas to strengthen di political and diplomatic options” and make dem find oda means to resolve di political wahala for Niger Republic.

As di seven-day ultimatum wey West African leaders give military in Niger to return President Mohamed Bazoum back to power dey near, di two sides get very serious decision to make.

Last Sunday, Ecowas say dem give di military leaders just one week to go back to order according to constitution or dem go use force make sure say e happun.

Before di ultimatum, dem don first sama di coup leaders sanction and dem cut electricity supplies from Nigeria, plus close border to make sure say no supply fit enta di kontri wey no get access to sea ports.

But as political, diplomatic and military tensions dey rise, wetin fit happun next as di deadline don reach so?

Three possible tins fit to happun:

1) Extend deadline

One tin wey Ecowas leaders fit do na to extend di deadline.

Di danger for di option be say pipo go see am like say Ecowas dey do u-turn.

But di heads of state fit save face by claiming say dem dey get result from di diplomatic tok tok wey dey go on and dem wan give am more time.

Di wahala for now be say all di tok tok wey Ecowas don dey do so far neva get head.

Delegate wey dem send go Niger on Thursday no even sidon tey before dem return wit notin.

Meanwhile, di military leader don increase im bad mouth against di West and Ecowas.

E announce say e no dey do relationship again wit Nigeria, Togo, US and France, come add say im dey cancel di military agreements wey dem get wit France wey allow dia former colonial master send about 1,500 soldiers go dia.

And President Bazoum, wey still dey di military hand, use some kain language for tori pipo Washington Post.

Im describe im sef as "hostage" come call US and di whole international community to help restore constitutional order.

On Friday US say dem go stop to send some kain support give Niger goment, dem go continue to provide humanitarian and food assistance.

2) Agree on timetable for transition

To try and cool tension small plus meet demsef half way, di military leaders and Ecowas fit agree on transition timetable to return to democratic rule.

Dis fit include release of President Bazoum, plus oda politicians wey dey detention. Dis way tok tok go at least dey move small small to help buy time.

Na so some pipo for Africa and oda parts of di world wey don condemn di coup dey suggest.

Di West African leaders don already approve transition to democracy for Niger neighbours for di Sahel region, Mali and Burkina Faso, wey military bin also takeover some few years now.

But di agreement wey dem bin reach get plenty k-leg, as di military leaders just dey change election date upandan wit no guaranty say dem go actually handover power.

Sudan, wey bin create mix civilian plus military goment for 2019 to help make way for democracy to return afta one coup wey happun, bin provide anoda model.

But as di kontri don collapse under di mix goment as two rival military leaders dey fight bitter fight so, di name of di game na be-careful for any plan to follow dis pattern of agreement.

3) Military intervention

West African leaders no tok say dem must to use force if dem no return President Bazoum back to office, but dem say e fit happun.

Nigeria officials say dis go be di “last option.”

President Tinubu say military fit intervene "to force di Niger military to obey if dem remain stubborn".

Ecowas bin don use force to restore constitutional order before, for example for Gambia for 2017 wen Yahya Jammeh refuse to step down afta im lose election.

But di calculation weda make dem use force or not dey far more difficult dis time.

One be say, Niger na di biggest kontri for size for West Africa, while The Gambia na just one tiny piece of land wey Senegal and di Atlantic Ocean surround am, so to send soldiers dia na different tori entirely.

Two be say, Nigeria wey be di main power for West Africa, wey dey lead di campaign to restore President Bazoum, dey face im own plenty security palava for house, diafore, to send part of im army go Niger go be big gamble.

Three, both Mali and Burkina Faso don tok say military intervention for Niger na "declaration of war" and dem go defend Niger.

So as tins be, e fit turn to full blow war throughout West Africa, especially if Niger pipo reject foreign intervention.

Although e dey impossible to know how dem go react.

Nigeria and Niger dey share plenty history plus tribal and cultural relationship, and pipo from di two kontris dey speak di same language so dis fit some Nigeria soldiers no wan fight if tins reach dat level.

Kontris like Algeria, Niger neighbour for north, China and Russia don ask everybody to try calm down and discuss di mata to reduce di tension.

However, but afta one three-day meeting for Nigeria capital, Abuja, Ecowas defence chiefs say dem don do detailed plan for military intervention wey dem want dia leaders to consider.

Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Benin all say dem go send dia military go Niger if Ecowas decided to do so.

Nigeria alone get about 135,000 active troops, according to Global Fire Power index, while Niger get about 10,000 but dat one no mean say di invasion go sure or dey easy.

Peaceful solution na di option wey all di sides prefer but Ecowas dey ginger to show im power as im bin fail to solve some coup wey don occur for di region.