Ko yaƙin Iran zai kawo ƙarshen ƙawancen Amurka da ƙasashen Larabawa?

Gamayyar tsaro da Amurka ke jagoranta a yankin Gulf ta shafe tsawon gomman shekaru tana tasiri, amma yaƙin da Amurka da Isra'ila ke yi da Iran zai iya canza hakan.

A lokacin yaƙin, hare-haren makami mai linzami da Iran ta riƙa kaiwa ƙasashen yankin Gulf ya tilastawa ƙasashen ƙoƙarin amfani da na'urar kare harin sararin samaniya wajen kare kansu, wanda a lokuta da dama ba a yin nasarar karewa. Haka nan kuma ƙasashen sun riƙa nazari kan martanin da Washington ke mayar wa a duk lokacin da aka kai irin waɗannan hare-hare bayan sun samu kansu a cikin yaƙin da wasu ƙwararru a yankin ke cewa an ƙaddamar da shi ba tare da an tuntuɓe su ba.

Ko wannan rikicin ya fallasa gazawar tanadin tsaro a tsakanin Washinton da ƙasashen yankin Gulf?

Shin yakin zai iya zama silar da ƙasashen yankin Gulf za su rage dogaro ga Amurka wajen tabbatar da tsaron su, ko kuwa ƙaruwa dogaron zai yi?

Gamayyar gomman shekaru

Dukkan ƙasashen da ke cikin haɗakar yankin Gulf sun ƙulla yarjejeniyar tsaro da Washington, lamarin da ya sa ake ɗaukar Saudiyya da Qatar da Bahrain da kuma Kuwait a matsayin ƙawayen da ba su cikin ƙawancen tsaro na NATO, ak kuma kallon Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa a matsayin babbar ƙawa.

Amurka ta fara mayar da hankali ga yankin Gulf ne bayan yaƙin duniya na biyu, yayin da ta maye gurbin Birtaniya a matsayin ƙasa mai ƙarfin faɗa a ji, a yankin. Haɗakar tsaron da Amurka ke jagoranta a yankin Gulf ta kafu ne a kan abubuwa biyu: muhimmancin yankin da ɗimbin albarkatun mai da yake da shi da kuma ƙoƙarin jan birki ga tasirin tarayyar Soviet.

Ko a shekaru biyu kafin kawo ƙarshen yaƙin, shugaban Amurka na wancan lokacin, Franklin Roosevelt ya yi hasashen muhimmancin da yankin Gulf mai arzikin mai ke da shi ga ƙasar shi a nan gaba, inda a 1943 ya ayyana cewa ''bayar da kariya ga Saudiyya abu ne mai muhimmanci tamkar bayar da tsaro ga Amurka,'' yayin da ya ke jaddada amfanin bai wa Saudiyya tallafin bunƙasar tattalinarziki da kuma bunƙasa alaƙa tsakanin ta da Washington.

A 1945, shugaba Roosevelt ya gana da sarki Abdulaziz Al Saud a Masar. Duk da dai bayanan hukumomi ba su ambaci mai a cikin tattaunawar da suka yi ba, ana ɗaukar taron a matsayin wanda ya share fagen alaƙa ''ta musamman'' da ke tsakanin ƙasshen biyu.

Dr. Jeffrey F. Gresh, wani ƙwararre kan harkar diflomasiyyar ƙasa daƙasa kuma mawallafin littafin "Gulf Security and the US Military: Regime Survival and the Politics of Basing," ya shaidawa sashin Larabci na BBC cewa a lokacin da aka kawo ƙarshen yaƙin duniya na biyu, ''Amurka ta mallaki ɗaya daga cikin sansanin soji mafi girma a duniya.'' Ya ƙara da cewa a lokacin Amurka ta karkata akalar tsare-tsaren sojin ta zuwa yankin Gulf.

A 1949, bayan sansanin sojin saman ta da ke Jamus, sansanin sojin Amurka na Dhahran ya zamo mafi yawan hada-hada da ƙasar ke da shi a ƙasashen waje, kuma yana da tasiri sosai ga dukkan ayyukan sojin Amurka a faɗin duniya.

Gresh ya yi nuni da cewa Amurka ta yi alƙawarin tallafin soji da na bunƙasar tattalin arziki ga Saudiyya, lamarin da ya sa ta samu damar kafa sansanin sojin ta. Haka kuma Amurka ta amince da buƙatar sayar wa Saudiyya da makamai don gudun kada rashin sayar mata ya tilastawa ƙasar saye a hannun tarayyar Soviet.

Ya ce ''Wannan ya sa har yanzu Amurka ke da sansanin soji a Saudiyya duk da cewa an yi gomman shekaru da kawo ƙarshen yaƙin, da kuma matsin lambar cikin gida da mahukunta ke fuskanta saboda yadda Amurka ke goyon bayan Isra'ila.

Daga ƙarshen yaƙin duniya na biyu har zuwa 1980 akwai kyakkyawar alaƙar harkokin soji a tsakanin Amurka da sauran ƙasashen yankin Gulf, wadda ta haɗa da bayar da horon soji da kafa ƙananan cibiyoyi da sansanin soji a ƙasashen. A 1971 Washington da ƙulla yarjejeniya da Bahrain, lamarin da ya bai wa Amurka damar girke dakarunta a tsohon sansanin sojin ruwan Birtaniya da ke Juffair.

Tsakanin 1960 da 1970, shugaban Amurka Richard Nixon ya ɓullo da wani tsari na ƙarfafa alaƙa tsakanin Iran da Saudiyya, ƙasashen da ya kira ''jiga-jigan'' tasirin tsaron Washington a yankin.

Alaƙar Amurka da yankin Gulf ta yi tsami a lokacin yaƙin 1973, yayin da ƙungiyar ƙasashen Larabawa masu arzikin mai (OAPEC) ta ƙaƙaba takunkumi kan ƙasashen da ke goyon bayan Isra'ila a yaƙin, musamman Amurka.

A 1979, juyin juya halin Iran ya kawo ƙarshen alaƙar Amurka da ƙasar bayan hamɓarar da gwamnatin aminin Washington Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Daga nan kuma tarayyar Soviet ta afkawa Afghanistan.

Waɗannan matakai sun sanya Amurka ta damu sosai kan yadda tarayyar Soviet ta ci gaba da faɗaɗa ikon ta a yankin Gulf.

A 1980, shugaban Amurka na wancan lokacin Jimmy Carter ya ayyana cewa ''duk wani yunƙuri daga wata ƙasa domin mamaye yankin zai fuskanci turjiya daga Amurka. kuma masu sharhi kan harkoki a Washington suna ganin cewa wannan tsari ne aka ci gaba da aiwatarwa a ƙarƙashin shugaba Ronald Reagan da kuma George H.W Bush.

A lokacin yaƙin Iran da Iraq a 1981 aka kafa ƙungiyar haɗin kan yankin Gulf, ''Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)'' domin tabbatar da tsaro a tsakanin ƙasashen Saudiyya da Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa da Qatar da Bahrain da Kuwait da kuma Oman.

Zaman ɗar-ɗar ya ƙaru a yankin bayan da Iraq ta kutsa Kuwait a 1990.

Kutsen da Amurka ta yi wa Iraq a 2003 da hamɓarar da Saddam Hussein ya buɗe wani sabon babi na nazari kan rawar da Washington ke takawa kan tsaron yankin.

Ƙasashen yankin Gulf sun ci gaba da dogaro kan Amurka wajen tabbatar da tsaron su, ita kuma Washington ta ci gaba da zama a yankin, tana faɗaɗa sansanonin ta a Bahrain da Qatar da Kuwait da kuma Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa.

Hamɓarar da Saddam Hussein, wanda ya zamo babban abokin hamayyar Iran ya bai wa Tehran damar faɗaɗa ikon ta a yankin da kuma jefa damuwa a tsakanin ƙasashen yankin da suka kafa ƙungiyar ƙawance.

A hankali abubuwa sun riƙa faruwa da ke jefa shakku a tsakanin ƙasashen yankin Gukf kan ko za su ci gaba da dogaro ga Washington a kan tsaron su.

A misali, an shiga ruɗani kan martanin da aka yi kan harin da ƙungiyar Houthi mai samun goyon bayan Iran ta kai kan matatun man Saudiyya a 2019. Dr. Sultan Al-Amer ya ce Washington "ta aike da na'urar kare harin sararin samaniya zuw Saudiyya, a madadin kai wa Iran hari a matsayin martani.... Wannan lamari ya sa masarautar Saudiyya ta gani ƙarara cewa ba za ta iya dogara ga Amurka ba kan tabbatar da tsaro daga hare-haren Iran, kuma wannan ya sanya Saudiyya ta ƙaddamar da sabon tsari na sasanci da Beijing domin faɗaɗa alaƙar tsaro a yankin, baya ga daɗaɗɗiyar alaƙa a tsakanin ta da Amurka.''

Ita ma Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa ta shiga ruɗani bayan Amurka ta ƙi ɗaukar wani mataki kan harin da Houthi ta kai kan filin jirgin sama na birnin Abu Dhabi a 2022. Harin Iran a kan Qatar da kuma Isra'ila a 2025, sun tayar da sabuwar muhawara kan alaƙar su da Amurka.

Sa'oi kafin fara yaƙin da Isra'ila da Amurka suka ƙaddamar kan Iran a ranar 28 ga watan Faburairu, ninistan harkokin wajen Oman Badr al-Busadi wanda ƙasarsa ke shiga tsakani don sasanta Amurka da Iran ya bayyana cewa an yi nisa kuma ana samun nasarar tattaunawar.

Ƙasashen ƙawancen yankin Gulf sun samu kansu a cikin rikicin, kuma alaƙar su da Iran ta taɓarɓare duk da shekarun da aka shafe ana ƙoƙarin ɗinke ɓarakar.

Al-Busaidi ya zargi Washington da ''faɗawa cikin yanayin lalacewar huɗɗar diflomasiyya'' kuma ya bayyana yaƙin a matsayin ''annoba.''

Sauya dabaru da faɗaɗa alaƙa da wasu ƙasashe na daban

A shekarun baya-bayan nan, ƙasashen yankin Gulf sun fara faɗaɗa tunanin su kan yadda za su samar da ƙarin hanyoyin bunƙasa tattalin arzikin su da kuma shiga alaƙar inganta fasahar ƙere-ƙere da wasu ƙasashe da suka haɗa da China da India da Rasha da Faransa da kuma Jamus, kuma wannan mataki ya fara karkata zuwa fannin tsaro.

Ana cikin yaƙin da Isra'ila da Amurka ke yi da Iran, Saudiyya da Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa da kuma Qatar suka sanya hannu kan wata yarjejeniya da Ukraine, lokacin wata ziyara da shugaba Volodymyr Zelensky' ya kai yankin Gulf a ƙarshen watan Maris. A ƙarƙashin yarjejeniyar, Kyiv za ta sayar wa ƙasashen kayan yaƙi, ciki harda jiragen sama marasa matuƙi.

A baya ma shugaba Zelensky ya sanar da cewa ƙasar shi tana bayar da tallafin kayan yaƙi ga ƙasashen Saudiyya da Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa da Kuwait da kuma Jordan, domin su samu kariya daga hare-haren Iran.

Dr. Al-Amer ya yarda cewa ƙasashen yankin Gulf za su ci gaba da neman ƙulla haɗakar soji da wasu ƙasashen na daban. Ya ce ''bana zaton ynuƙurin zai zamo na neman raba gari da Amurka, amma ƙasashen za su dage wajen ci gaba da alaƙa mai kyau da Washington yayin da a lokaci guda suke neman ƙulla sabon ƙawance da ƙasashe domin inganta tsaro.

Wani dalili da zai sa ƙasashen ba za su raba gari da Amurka ba shi ne hare-haren da Iran ke kai masu, wanda ya ƙara irin tsoron da suke da shi da kuma neman kariya daga Amurka. Dr. Gresh ya ce "Mafi yawan ƙasashen ƙawancen Gulf na ganin zaman Amurka a yankin a matsayin wani abu mai muhimmanci da zai iya hana Iran ci gaba da yi masu barazana.

Wani dalilin kuma shi ne ƙasashen basu da tabbacin samun kariya ta haƙiƙa daga wasu ƙasashe na daban da Amurka.

Dr. Craig ya jajirce cewa ƙasashen China da Rasha duk za su iya zama abokan hudɗar kasuwanci da siyasa nagari gare su, amma ba za su iya kai masu ɗaukin da suke buƙata ba a fannin ƙarfin soji.