Ni uruhe ruhande rwungukiye mu gitero ca Iran kuri Israel? Ni uruhe rwahomvye?

"Ni ukunganya guha amahirwe Irani". Uku ni ko bamwe mu bihweza ibintu n’ibindi basigura igitero ca mbere ca Irani ku butaka bwa Israel.

Mw’ijoro ryo ku wa gatandatu, Irani yarekuriye kuri Israel indege zitagira abadereva n’ibisasu vya misire, vyose hamwe birenga 300, nk’uko bivugwa n’igisirikare ca Israel.

Igisirikare ca Irani kivuga ko iki gitero cari ico “kwihora igitero cakozwe kw’ishami ry’ubuserukizi bwayo i Damas kandi ko cashitse ku ntego zaco zose”.

Imbere y’aho, Irani yari yagabishije ko yari kwihora bikomeye ku co yise igitero co mu kirere ca Israel kuri iri shami ry’ubuserukizi bwayo ku mugwa mukuru wa Syria, Damas/Damascus ku wa 1 Ndamukiza (4).

Iki gitero cahitanye intwazangabo nkuru indwi z’ishami ry’igisirikare ca Irani, hamwe n’abanyagihugu ba Syria batandatu.

Israel ntiratangaza ko ari yo yakoze iki gitero, ariko abatari bake ntibakekeranya ko ari yo yagikoze.

Inyungu n'uruhombo

Irani irishimira ko iki gitero kuri Israel cagenze neza.

Ariko, nk’uko bivugwa na Ali Nouri Zadeh, umushakashatsi w’umunya-Irani akongera akaba umukuru w’ikigo Centre for Arab-Iranian Studies, gifise icicaro i Londres mu Bwongereza, iki gitero nta kintu na kimwe cunguye Irani.

Avuga ko ahubwo cerekanye intege nke z’ubutegetsi bwa Irani kubera ata bibanza na bimwe cagemye muri Israel.

Iki catumye bamwe mu banyagihugu ba Irani babona ko igihugu cabo gisuzuguritse.

Zadeh abona ko iyo Irani ipfuma ibandanya ico yita "intambara y’amajambo yo gukangira", yari gushika kuri vyinshi.

Ku rundi ruhande, Dr Eric Rundtski, umushakashatsi mu gisata c’ivyigwa ku Buseruko bwo Hagati ku kigo Moshe Dayan Center ca kaminuza ya Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv University), avuga ko Israel yatakaje mu gutera akamo ko igihugu comera magabo gusumba.

Avuga ko ibi vyatumye abanyagihugu bamwe bamwe bagira umwikomo, benshi batinya ko hashobora kuba ibindi bitero nk’ibi.

Zadeh avuga ko umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Israel Benjamin Netanyahu ubu yumva ko afise inguvu nyinshi. Zadeh avuga ko iki gitero cafashije mu gutsimbataza ubucuti na Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’ibindi bihugu vy’Uburengero, inyuma yo kunegurwa bikomeye imbere yo ku wa gatandatu.

Umushakashatsi w’Umunya-Israel, Dr Eric Rundtski, avuga ko Israel ishobora kuba yarungukiye muri iki gitero, ariko yarahahombeye mu bundi buryo.

Abona ko iki gitero cerekanye ko Israel yananiwe no kwemera ko ibindi bihugu vyo mu Buseruko bwo Hagati bigenda bikomera, kandi ko yananiwe no kubuza Irani gutera ku butaka bwayo.

Gusubira 'gushigikirwa' n'ibindi bihugu

Dr Rundtski na we nyene abona ko iki gitero ca Irani cahaye akarusho Israel. Avuga ko gishobora gutuma ibintu bihinduka muri poritike, kubera ubu Israel ishigikiwe n’Uburengero ku ncuro ya mbere inyuma y’amezi atari make.

Avuga ko Israel ishobora “kwizigirwa” n’ibi bihugu, cane cane Amerika, inyuma y’icuka kibi kitari bwigere kiboneka mu migenderanire nayo.

Mu buryo butandukanye, umushakashatsi w’umunya-Irani Ali Nouri Zadeh abona ko Irani yatakaje ku ruhande rwa poritike, haba hagati mu gihugu canke hanze.

Avuga ko yatakaje ubufasha bw’ibihugu bibanyi kandi ko ata gihugu na kimwe cayifashe mu mugongo. Ku bwiwe, hariho ibihugu bimwe biriko bigerageza gukwegera Irani mu ntambara yeruye na Amerika.

Aba bashakashatsi bompi baremeza ko ibi bihugu vyompi biri ku gitsure hagati muri vyo.

Rundtski avuga ko hari impungenge nyinshi imbere muri Israel. Avuga ko umujinya ari mwinshi kubera ibibazo vya poritike vy’imbere mu gihugu hamwe n’intambara yunyurwa n’uko ata ntambwe iherutse guterwa mu kugerageza kubohoza abafashwe bugwati bagipfungiwe muri Gaza.

Zadeh abona kandi ko umutegetsi w’ikirenga wa Irani Ali Khamenei ariko aterwa igitsure gikomeye, atari mu mabarabara gusa, ariko no mu bantu bakomeye mu ntwaro yiwe.

Ati: "Hari igitsure aterwa n’igisirikare inyuma y’igandagurwa ry’intwazangabo indwi z’ishami rya gisirikare, al-Quds Brigades, mu gitero ca Israel, kubera igisirikare kiriko gisaba kwihora."

'Ubutumwa bw'umuriro'

Jenerali Majoro Hisham Jaber, umukukuruke mu gisirikare ca Libani, akaba ari umuhinga mu vya gisirikare akongera akaba ari kandi n’umukuru w’ikigo Middle East Center for Strategic Studies i Beirut (umugwa mukuri wa Libani), yabwiye igisata ca BBC gikoresha ururimi rw’Icarabu ko "igitangaje kuri iki gitero ni uko kitabaye giturumbuka".

Avuga ko ibi ari ukubera indwi zibiri “z’intambara y’amajambo yo gukangira” zashikanye kuri iki gitero co mu kirere, mu gihe Israel “yari mu bwoba”.

Avuga ko ibi vyononye ibintu vyongera bihungabanya n’abantu mu mitwe kubera ibigo vyinshi vyononekaye, abanya-Israel benshi bagata izabo.

Jaber avuga ko igitero ca Irani cabaye “ubutumwa bw’umuriro”, mu kwerekana ubushobozi bwayo bwo gushika kure hagati muri Israel, no gupima ubushobizi bwa Israel bwo gukingira ikirere cayo.

Aremera kandi ko iki gitero catumye Irani yisubiza icubahiro yari yaratakaje muri poritike mu myaka mike iheze inyuma y’ico yise “poritike yo kwihangana”, inunguka kandi mu vya gisirikare.

Uno muhinga mu vya gisirikare w’umunya-Libani abona ko Irani yarekuye igitigiri kinini c’aya madrone kugira ngo ihuvye ubuhinga bwa Israel bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere, buzwi nka Iron Dome. Avuga ko ubuhinga bwa Iron Dome bwa Israel butashoboye gusambura ibisasu vyose vya misire, kandi vyabaye ngombwa ko ifashwa n’ingabo za Amerika n’iz’Ubwongereza ziri ku birindiro vyo mu Buseruko bwo Hagati.

Jaber avuga ati: "Ari nka hamwe Israel yohitamwo kwihora gisirikare, yoshika ku butaka bwa Irani ikoresheje ibisasu vyayo vya misire, ariko ntiyogera kure kubera vyitezwe ko Irani yokwivuna bikomeye.”

Yongerako ati: "Indege za Israel zirashobora gucucagira amabombe kuri Irani, ariko zotegerezwa guca hejuru y’ibihugu vy’abarabu – ibi navyo bikaba bimaze kugabishwa na Irani – canke naho zikava ku birindiro vya Amerika biri mu karere, Amerika ikaba ishobora kutavyemera."

Guhindura ibintu no kugarukana icizere

Fawaz Gerges, umwigisha w’ivyigwa vy’imigenderanire mpuzamakungu kuri kaminuza London School of Economics, avuga ko Israel yungukiye muri ibi bitero gusumba Iran.

Asigura ko ibitero vya Iran ata bintu vyinshi vyononye canke ngo bihitane abantu muri Israel, kandi ko ubu Uburengero bwose bushigikiye Israel. Avuga ko Amerika iriko igerageza guhimiriza Uburengero ko bwoshigikira Israel, mu bijanye n’ibirwanisho, igendereza n’amafaranga.

Gerges avuga ko Perezida Joe Biden wa Amerika yerekana iki gihugu nk’ikiriko kirahohoterwa, mu guhamagaza inama y’ibihugu bigize G7 (ihuriro ry’igihugu indwi bitunze kurusha ibindi kw’isi) mu gikorwa co kubihimiriza gufata mu mugongo Israel.

Yongerako ati: "Netanyahu azovyungukiramwo muri poritike inyuma yo gusamaza (kurangaza mu Kinyarwanda) amakungu, nubwo hoba ari mu kanya gato, ku mabi y’agahomerabunwa n’ubugome ariko abera muri Gaza."

Avuga ko Netanyahu azokwungukira kw’inagurwa ry’ubucuti n’Uburengero, cane cane na Perezida Biden, inyuma y’igihe ibihugu vy’Uburengero binegura cane Israel ku vyo yita “amahano” abera muri Gaza.

'Uruhombo rukomeye kuri Israel'

Ariko Gerges abona kandi ingaruka mbi kuri Israel, akavuga ko ari uruhombo, mu kwerekana aho Israel irwaye.

Avuga kandi ko Irani yunguka muri poritike mu kwereka abanyagihugu, incuti n’abansi bayo ishaka ryayo ryo guhangana na Israel.

Gerges abona ko Irani yerekanye ko Israel idashoboye kwirwanako yonyene itari kumwe n’incuti zayo z’Uburengero, kubera Amerika, Ubwongereza, Ubufaransa na Yorodaniya vyakoroye ibisasu vya misire bitari bike vya Irani.

Yongerako ko intego nyamukuru ya Israel mu rukurikirane rw’ibitero vyayo biherutse kuri Irani, yari iyo kwerekana ko Irani ata nguvu ifise, kandi ko itokwubahuka guhangana na Israel. Ariko ku bwiwe, ibi bitero vya Irani vyatesheje agaciro iki ciyumviro.

Gerges avuga ko "akarere ubu gahanzwe n’igihuhusi c’indyane”, aho impande zompi ziguma zihiga.

Agabisha ko umwanya n’umwanya akarere gashobora kugwa mu kaga ka poritike, aka gisirikare ndetse no mu vy’ubutunzi.