Ukraine-Russia: Ubwo ama-chars y’Uburengero azohindura intambara?

Na Jonathan Beale

Umunyamakuru mu gisata co kwivuna abansi

Ino ndwi yoba yabaye kirumara kuri Ukraine mu ntambara yayo n'Uburusiya? Nta nkeka ko yabaye indwi idasanzwe, aho ibihugu vy’uburengero bigize urunani vyahavuye vyiyemeza gufashisha Ukraine ibikoresho bigezweho, cane cane vya bimodoka ntamenwa, canke ama-chars/tanks y’intambara.

Ubudagi bwaremeye kuzorungika ama-chars yo mu bwoko bwa Leopard 2 Amerika nayo yemera kuzorungika ayayo yo mu bwoko bwa M1 Abrams.

Ubwongereza na Pologne, vyompi vyaramaze kwiyemeza imfashanyo bizotanga, mbere n’ibindi bihugu vyitezwe gukurikira. Bamwe mu bihweza ibintu n’ibindi babona ko izi ngingo zigiye “guhindura ibintu”.

Ariko none, ubwo ibi vyoba bimaze kugira ngo Ukraine itsinde intambara?

Ben Barry, umushakashatsi mukuru ku kigo, International Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS), yabwiye BBC ko aya ma-chars yemewe n’ibihugu vy’Uburengero azohindura ibintu.

Ariko uyu yahoze ari intwazangabo mu gisirikare c’Ubwongereza agabisha ko ibimaze kwemerwa gushika ubu bishobora kudatuma ikibazo kirangira burundu.

Mu ntambara ya none, ama-chars afise uruhara rukomeye ku rugamba – kumenera mu birindiro vy’umwansi no kubohoza ubutaka.

Akoreshejwe neza, atanga inguvu ku rugamba, agakingira ingabo, agahungabanya umwansi, agaterwa mu buryo atari yiteze. Arungitswe ku rugamba ku bwinshi, ashobora gusambura ibirindiro vy’umwansi.

Ariko kandi aha hakenewe n’inkoho zikomakomeye kugira ngo inguvu z’umwansi zibanze zigabanuke hanyuma kandi kugira ngo n’abasirikare barwanira ku butaka bashobore kugumya uturere twabohojwe.

Akahise kerekana ko ama-chars yonyene adashobora gutsinda intambara. Mu ngwano y’ahitwa Cambrai muri Munyonyo (11) 1917, hari igihe c’intambara ya mbere y’isi yose, Abongereza babanje gukoresha amajana n’amajana y’ama-chars kugira ngo bashobore kwikiza intambara yo mu migende (tranchées) yari yananiranye.

Mu ntango barateye intambwe zikomeye, ariko haciye akanya gato ama-chars menshi yarapfuye, hanyuma ibitero vy’Abadagi vyo kwivuna biriha inkumbi mu Bongereza.

Ama-chars kandi ashobora gukoreshwa mu kwivuna. Mu 1940, yarakoreshejwe mu kuzibira Abanazi bariko barasatira Abafaransa n’Abongereza bariko basubira inyuma ahitwa Arras, ivyafashije ingabo z’Ubwongereza zari zagiye gufasha Ubufaransa zishobora gutahukanwa neza zikuwe ahitwa Dunkerque aho zari zahungiye.

Ariko Ukraine yaravuze neza ko ikeneye ibirwanisho atari ivyo gusa kuzibira igitero citezwe mu mezi ari imbere, ikeneye kandi nokubohoza ubutaka bwayo - yongere ibandanye isatira umwansi.

Ni gute Ukraine ishobora gukoresha aya ma-chars mu gutobora ibirindiro vy’umwansi?

Bishobora kutumvikana ukungene Ukraine yoronka akoyoko mu kunyanyagiza aya ma-chars yandi ku rwasiro rw’ibirometero birenga 1000. Kugira ngo ishobore kumenera mu birindiro vy’Abarusiya, Ukraine izokenera kuza irarundanya ingabo zayo ahantu hamwe – nko ku rwasiro ruri hagati y’ibirometero bitanu gushika kuri 20.

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, yahoze ari umukoroneri mu gisata ca gisirikare c’Ubwongereza gikoresha ama-chars (Royal Tank Regiment), avuga ko ubwinshi ari ngirakamaro kugira ngo mushobore gutobora.

Harakenewe nibura ama-chars nka 70 kugira ngo igitero cokorwa gishobore gushika ku ntambwe. Rero ama-chars 100 y’intambara yotangwa n’Uburengero yoba kirumara, nk’uko abivuga.

Ari nka hamwe Ukraine yoronka menshi, ishobora kugerageza gukora ibitero vyinshi ica rimwe mu bibanza bitandukanye, nk’uko vyagenze mu mwaka uheze mu buraruko no mu bumanuko.

Hanyuma kandi hakenewe inguvu zo kwishigikiza, ico mu gisirikare bita “guhuriza hamwe ibirwanisho bitandukanye” (mu gifaransa bita ngo manœuvre interarmes, canke combined arms manoeuvre mu congereza).

Ubwongereza ntibwarungikiye Ukraine ama chars 14 yo mu bwoko bwa Challenger yonyene, bwarungitse kandi inkoho za muzinga 30 hamwe n’ababurende (blindés) yo kwunguruza no gukingira ingabo.

Iyi mfashanyo nshasha ya gisirikare kandi irimwo ibimodoka vyo gusambura amamine n’ivyo kwubaka ibiraro. Mu yandi majambo, ibikoresho nkenerwa mu bitero bishobora gukorwa.

Amerika kandi iriko iraha Ukraine ibimodoka ntamenwa birenga 100 vyo mu bwoko bwa Bradley na Stryker, Ubudagi nabwo bukaba bwayemereye amamodoka y’intambara 40 yo mu bwoko bwa Marder – hamwe kandi n’ama-chars.

Ama-chars ni kirumara mu kumenera mu birindiro vy’umwansi, kandi akaba ayanyaruka ku butaka. Ama-chars ya Challenger 2, Leopard 2 na M1 Abrams aranyaruka cane gusumba ay’Uburusiya, ku muvuduko urenga ibirometero 40 kw’isaha ku butaka bubi.

Kugira ngo ashobore gukoreshwa mu kubohoza ubutaka, ni ngombwa ko yihoza uturere tw’ibisagara kuko aha ni ahantu vyoroshe kuyasambura.

Mu ntango y’iyi ntambara, mu ntumbero yo kugerageza kwigarurira umugwa mukuru Kyiv ariko bukananirwa, Uburusiya bwarerekanye neza ko umurongo munini w’ama-chars n’amaburende mw’ibarabara ata kigenda kuko vyoroshe kuyasambura.

Barry wo mu kigo ISS, avuga ko igitero ico ari co cose co kurondera kumenera mu birindiro vy’umwansi coca cane cane ku mpande z’umwansi zidakomeye cane. Ariko agabisha kandi ko Uburusiya bumaze amezi atari make bwongereza inguvu ku birindiro vyabwo mu kwimba imigende no mu gutega imitego bukoresheje ama-chars.

Ama-chars y’Uburengero kandi afise uburemere busumba magenzi yayo y’Uburusiya, akaba ayasumva amatoni 20.

Nivyo ko aya ma-chars n’amaburenge azofasha mu kwikingira, ariko kandi ashobora kuba aremereye cane ku buryo adashobora guca ku biraro bidakomeye. Aha ni ukumenya ko Uburusiya na Ukraine vyompi vyagiye bisambura ibiraro mu ntumbero yo kuzibira umwansi.

Ibitero giturumbuka vy’ijoro

De Bretton Gordon yigeze kuyobora umurwi w’abasirikare b’Ubwongereza bakoresha ama-chars ya Challenger avuga ko kamwe mu turusho nyamukuru tw’aya ma-chars y’Uburengero ari uko ashoboye gukora ibitero vy’ijoro.

Ama-chars y’Uburusiya yonyene ashoboye kurwana mw’ijoro ni aya none – nk’ayo mu bwoko bwa T-90. Ibitero vyo mu mwijima kandi bituma umwansi ashobora guterwa atiteguye agata umutwe.

Ingorane nyamukuru kuri Ukraine ni kuronka ivya nkenerwa mu gukoresha ibi birwanisho bishasha – aha ni ukuvuga nk’ibitoro bikwiye, amasasu n’ibikoresho vyo gusubiriza (pieces de rechange).

Ukraine ntifise gusa ingorane zo kubungabunga ibikoresho vyayo vyo mu gihe c’ubutegetsi bw’Abasoviyeti, hari ubwoba bw’ukungene ishobora kubungabunga ibikoresho bigoye biriko biratangwa n’Uburengero.

Nk’akarorero, aya ma-chars y’Ubwongereza Challenger 2, ntakoresha amasasu amwe n’ayasanzwe akoreshwa muri OTAN/NATO nk’uko bimeze kuri Leopard na Abrams.

Hejuru y’ibi, aya ma-chars Challenger 2 ntagihingurwa, mbere n’ibikoresho bimwe bimwe vyo gusubiriza (pieces de rechange) ntabiriho.

Barry avuga ko aba-injeniyeri ba Ukraine bashobora kuba bazi gukora amamoteri akoresha mazutu – nk’aya ari mu ma-chars ya Leopard na Challenger.

Ariko avuga ko amamoteri akoreshwa n’ama-chars ya Amerika yo mu bwoko bwa Abrams agoye cane. Anywa kandi igitoro cinshi, incuro hafi zibiri, ugereranije n’ikinyobwa n’ama-chars y’Ubudagi, Leopard.

Mu gihe ivyo Ukraine yemerewe n’Uburengero vyoja mu ngiro, ingabo za Ukraine zishobora kuronswa ama-chars arenga ijana. Ariko ayo yoba ari make cane ugereranije n’ayo abarongoye igisirikare ca Ukraine basaba.

Muri Gitugutu (10) umwaka uheze, Jenerali Valerii Zaluzhnyi yavuze ko Ukraine ikeneye ama-chars y’inyongera 300, imodoka z’intambara 700 hamwe n’inkoho za muzinga zo mu bwoko bwa obusiers/ howitzers 500 mu bitero itegekanya muri uno mwaka. Bishobora kurangira ironse inusu yonyene y’ibi vyose.

Inyigisho zikenewe kw’ikoreshwa ry’ibi birwanisho kandi zizofata igihe – amayinga nimba atari amezi. Kandi ntibitomoretse igihe ibi bikoresho vyose bizoshika.

Amerika imenyesha ko ama-chars yayo 31 ya M1 Abrams ashobora kufata amezi atari make kugira atangwe.

Ukraine kandi iracarindiriye inyishu ihabwa n’Uburengero ku vyo iguma isaba ko yoronswa indege z’intambara za none. Ingabo zirwanira ku butaka zikeneye gushigikirwa mu kirere.

Abategetsi b’Uburengero bari bizeye ko Ukraine ishobora kuba yiteguye gukora igitero imbere y’impeshi. Bizeye ko kino gihe ari akaryo keza mu gihe Uburusiya bukigerageza kwinjiza no gusanura ingabo, no kwegeranya uburyo bwabwo busa n’ubwakeshe.

Ukraine yarashoboye kwereka abari bayifiseko amakenga muri kahise ko ishoboye – ariko izobandanya ikeneye gufatwa mu mugongo nimba koko ishaka gushika ku ntumbero yayo yo kwirukana ingabo z’Uburusiya.