Ground water levels in drought hit East Yorkshire now normal

Paul - the way May is going April may be the driest of the three months.

Wow yet another record broken



The shortest drought in all recorded history!



They may actually be right - quick tax something

HI PAUL

IT THAT WET ON OUR ALLOTMENT IN WORKSOP, WE HAVE DUCK SWIMMING IN THE POOLS.

IT IS SO WET WE ARE UNABLE TO PLANT POTATOES AND SOW SEEDS.

LOOKING FOR RICE SEED FOR THIS SEASON!

Coincidentally, I saw a duck wandering around one of the local supermarkets today, possibly attracted to the large puddles of water which were about.

It seems that if there is a drought, all the MO have to do is forecast dry weather and the problem is solved!

Anyone know why the NDSC NH data on Cryosphere Today seems to have 'frozen' since the 4th? (strictly no pun intended)



On a lighter note Paul - it seems you've got competition north of the border...



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-18018232

#5. - thesnowmanwhonevermelts wrote:

"Anyone know why the NDSC NH data on Cryosphere Today seems to have 'frozen' since the 4th? (strictly no pun intended)"

Have you a link to that data?

Did anyone else witness that long cylindrical cloud yesterday evening moving at speed?

From my vantage point it stretched from horizon to horizon in the midlands moving from south west to north east, absolutely fabulous sight to behold.

#7. - ukpahonta wrote:

"Did anyone else witness that long cylindrical cloud yesterday evening moving at speed?

From my vantage point it stretched from horizon to horizon in the midlands moving from south west to north east, absolutely fabulous sight to behold."

Nope, where I live, in the NE, it was wall to wall cloud all day.

No pictures?

QV@6



Current Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area:



https://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png



Maybe it's me, but the data hasn't changed for several days, just as it seemed about to cross the 1979-2008 mean.

cryosphere today have been having server problems for the last week...give it time

QV



No pictures but video from iphone, the closest that I can find by searching is this Roll cloud:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roll_cloud



But this is a pretty rare event so I'm not so sure.

Thanks Quake - after the unannounced data changes earlier this year I would hate to think we might be missing anything significant...

#9. - thesnowmanwhonevermelts wrote:



"Maybe it's me, but the data hasn't changed for several days, just as it seemed about to cross the 1979-2008 mean."

I couldn't tell which date it was, but you would know it had stopped if you had been watching it.

I am sure it's just a coincidence!

#11. - ukpahonta wrote:

"But this is a pretty rare event so I'm not so sure."

It might have been something to do with the division between cloudy/rainy weather in the North and finer weather in the South, but unfortunately I don't have a weather map for the appropriate time.

Re 12: there are some other sites to see ice trends that are still working, eg: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Re 15: Ta, I had been using the NSIDC and the DMI site



https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php



the CT site was just a bit easier to reference.

The Sea Ice extent got close to the average, but lets be honest it would have to cross it and stay there for years to have any effect on the average. It's now back well below.

Seeing as those oh so infallible scientific types were telling us that it would be ice free round about now, then the 'average' spell was nothing short of miraculous



Anarctica ice extent running at near record levels takes some explaining too

#18. - openside50 wrote:

"Anarctica ice extent running at near record levels takes some explaining too"

That's possibly due to the fact that it isn't really getting any warmer in the Antarctic.

Regarding the East Yorks drought:



The springs which have been dry for so long here are now running again more or less as normal. So groundwater levels must be right up, as PH says. On the whole I think that plenty of rain at this time of year is a good thing. Vegetation and crops are growing well.



We could do with a bit of warmth though. It seems to have been on the cold side for weeks now, though mercifully the severe frost expected last WE did not materialise. Yesterday I believe, an amazing 21c was recorded at Leconfield but this has been very much the exception. East Yorks was just inside the warm SW wind belt that covered southern Britain and we had a rather pleasant afternoon. This has already gone and been replaced by chilly polar air again.



Swifts and swallows have been late but have finally arrived in good numbers.

"That's possibly due to the fact that it isn't really getting any warmer in the Antarctic."



Or anywhere else for that matter since 1998!

"the 'average' spell was nothing short of miraculous"



If cryosphere today was still up I could show how 'average' is reached once a year most years, including the last few. I think there was only one year that average didn't happen at some point.



It used to be the case of course that it was very unusual to get below average, now it's a big event when we almost touch it.

whoops stupid me CT is up of course, it's just frozen, so what I meant was this:

https://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg



almost every year hits the average line, or gets very close to it. There's more than one that didn't. In terms of ice free, it's the lower trough parts of the graph that are more interesting.



In the above graph if you start at the beginning you notice each year the ice stays within a single box. In the early 80s the ice sticks in the box spanning 0 and 1mil sqkm. Ice very rarely dips below that 0 line. As we hit the 90s we see ice going below that line more commonly, in fact it seems the ice is hugging the 0 line. In 1995 is the first year in which the ice drops into the 0 to -1 mil sqlm box. By the early 2000s that's become the pattern each year. By 2006 it seems to be dropping towards the next box, then some really weird stuff happens. Notice that since 2007 the ice has started to largely occupy 2 vertical boxes each year rather than 1.

Just remember you who believe in man made global warming. The water stocks were replenished very quickly. At some stage we will get a lot of cold weather to compensate. But then again we haven't had a decent summer since 2006 and that finished prematurely.

We need a rowing boat to get to the emergency stand pipe

It is interesting that AQUA CH5-8 temperatures have now been falling for about 5-11 days, with those at a higher altitude falling for longer. Since temperatures normally rise at this time of year, the daily ch5 anomaly has actually been falling for about 6 days, and the equivalent UAH anomaly is now approximately back to where it was on April 24th. The estimated UAH anomaly is now below what it was at the start of May, and the estimated RSS and HadCRUT3 anomalies are about the same as at the end of April. So it seems that for the time being at least, the recent increase in global temperatures may be slowing down.

greensand,

From your link to the Bob Tisdale blog on April SSTs, Tisdale says:

"With the ebbing of the 2011/12 La Niña, the Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly rose as one would expect in April 2012 (about 0.167 deg C) to -0.30 deg C.

In response, Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies have also increased. Both Hemispheres warmed. The only ocean basins to show cooling in April 2012 were the South Atlantic, North Pacific, and Arctic Ocean. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.134 deg C."

What puzzles me is the mechanisim whereby the global, and in particular the North Atlantic SST "responds" to a rise in the NINO3.4 SST, since the latter is in the Pacific, and as far as I know, there is no connection between the ocean currents in the Pacific and the North Atlantic. Surely any change in the N. Atlantic SST must be completely separate from ENSO.

"we haven't had a decent summer since 2006 and that finished prematurely."



2006 was an unusually hot summer in June and July. June was about 2C warmer than average and July about 3C warmer, then in August temperatures returned to average. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomalygraphs/



If you skim through the years you can see various times there are 2C/3C warmer than average months. For example last year this happened in February, April, October and November. Warm temperature records were broken during those periods, so this is about as hot as it gets.



What needs to happen for a scorching absolute temperature is for one of these 2C/3C period to happen during a summer month, which is a matter of luck, although I am sure the odds will be much increased in a warmer world.

QV @ 27

I stumbled across this nsidc icelights page a couple of days ago which may be helpful.



https://nsidc.org/icelights/2012/02/02/the-arctic-oscillation-winter-storms-and-sea-ice/



If the link doesn't work (my last one didn't), go to the icelights page and scroll down to Arctic Oscillation and click read more.



It very briefly describes how the AO influences weather in the NH and how it is interconnected to ENSO, trade winds and the position of the jet stream. This may not seem directly relevant to your question, but it strikes me that anything that influences cloud cover will inevitably affect insolation. In this way, perhaps the changes in the pacific can have a knock on effect with North Atlantic ssts.



To be honest, it all seems so interconnected that I'm surprised anyone can make sense of it. It may also help with your earlier query regarding the up and down nature of arctic temps.

Quake @23

"Notice that since 2007 the ice has started to largely occupy 2 vertical boxes each year rather than 1."



Presumably this is due to the large drop in multi year ice? I read somewhere that even second year ice is much harder to melt than single year, and because of this, sea ice extent is now more sensitive to short term weather variations.

27. QuaesoVeritas wrote:



"Surely any change in the N. Atlantic SST must be completely separate from ENSO."



That would be my initial thought QV and as such we are back to the "short-term"

effect of ENSO. Not difficult to understand a predominance of El Nino's eventually giving rise to increased global SSTs but a move in Nino 3.4 over a few months? Don't fit easy with me.



I have just seen the following and only had time to skim (and sorry have to admit that is all I have managed with your last few posts but hopefully will get free shortly):-



"Tisdale: An Unsent Memo to James Hansen"



https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/12/tisdale-an-unsent-memo-to-james-hansen/



Lot in there but this caught my eye:-



"As a result, the climate models exclude the variations in the rates at which the tropical Pacific Ocean releases naturally created heat to the atmosphere and redistributes it within the oceans, and those climate models also exclude the varying rate at which ENSO is responsible through teleconnections for the warming in areas remote to the tropical Pacific."



The "teleconnections" made me twitch but a quick google of "ENSO Teleconnections" surprised me, not unusual, lots to learn!



https://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography-book/teleconnections.htm



At first glance quite interesting, but cannot see an immediate answer re North Atlantic, will get back later, it is growing season and the “drought” has resulted in it being too wet to do a lot of jobs!

27. QuaesoVeritas:



I'm sure Tisdale will one day get around to putting these ideas up for peer review, where they can be properly scrutinised and either accepted or rejected.



Until then, he will always be popular with bloggers of a 'sceptical' persuasion.

32. newdwr54 wrote:



"I'm sure Tisdale will one day get around to putting these ideas up for peer review"



No you are not.



"where they can be properly scrutinised and either accepted or rejected."



Why can't they be "properly scrutinised and either accepted or rejected" as they are?



They are in the public domain for all to scrutinise and either accept or reject. And make no mistake they will be!



In the meanwhile they stay as "actual information" "actual data" until somebody proves that virtual overides observational! And if they ever do then kiss your a** goodbye!

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/12/tisdale-an-unsent-memo-to-james-hansen/



Bob Tisdale says:

May 12, 2012 at 1:08 pm



Vincent says: I’ve got one problem with ascribing temperature to ENSO – is it the cause or the effect? Does ENSO drive the temperature or does the temperature drive ENSO?”



Global surface temperatures respond to ENSO. There’s a 3- to 6-month lag between an El Nino event and the response of global surface temperatures to the event.



A little shorter time frame than I thought.

QV



Just for interest, I knocked up a quick blog to upload the video of the cloud formation I mentioned earlier:

https://somethingtododownthepub.com/2012/05/13/strange-cloud-formation-midlands-2000-10052012/

#35. - ukpahonta wrote:

"Just for interest, I knocked up a quick blog to upload the video of the cloud formation I mentioned earlier:"

Thanks for that.

I must admit, I can't see it as a cylinder, but it might be a cloud resulting from a front of some sort. I will try and see if I can get a look at a weather chart for the day/time, to see if anything coincides with it.

Someone else might have more idea.

34.ukpahonta wrote:



"Global surface temperatures respond to ENSO. There’s a 3- to 6-month lag between an El Nino event and the response of global surface temperatures to the event.



A little shorter time frame than I thought."



Thanks for the quote ukpahonta, not sure quite what I think! 3 months seems very short, not if Bob was talking about global SEA surface temperatures or land as well. Will have to have a trawl back.

about 3 month lag for surface temperatures and about another 3 for lower troposphere

The wettest drought on history and yet the BBC still generally parrots the nonsense that comes out of the environment agency, you Mr Hudson seem to be the exception.



Wait for it though, "April and May have been exceptional weather events another sign that the climate is changing due to man made CO2 emissions" said a spokesgenderneutral person for the Mostly Environmental Trash Office.

Sorry mean't to say ......that comes out of the environment agency and MET Office.

Just looked out my window - this global warming thing is now officially doing my head in



The heat would be killing me - if it wasnt for the fact it has rained for 6 weeks non stop - Id like to break the monotony by going outside and doing some theraputic pressure washing of my patio but the hose pipe ban prevents me



Confused? I am

41. openside50 wrote:



"Confused? I am"



What's confusing is your conflating of conditions 'out your window' with conditions globally.



April 2012 was the fourth warmest April on record globally according to all the monthly data bases so far released (RSS and UAH satellite, and NASA surface stn data). May is so far looking above average globally according to daily global AMSU satellite data. SST ENSO region 3.4 is now in positive territory, up to +0.14C above average last week and it appears to be rising quite steadily. This normally has the knock-on warming effect of warming global temperatures.



It may be raining and cold in Knowle West, East Kilbride, and Hemel Hempstead, etc but that doesn't necessarily always have an overriding impact on global average surface temperatures.

Why no mention (AFAIK) on the BBC, of the fiasco of the UKMO forecast of drier than normal weather for April to June?

openside50 & newdwr54



time to google the you tube 'Armstrong and Miller climate change sketch'

Irrespective of your views on climate change, it's worth it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQlHaGhYoF0

thanks QV

I have been looking at the mean monthly temperature anomalies for the N.H., using RSS data.

Apart from the N.Polar region, i.e. 60 to 82.5 deg. the mean anomaly peaks in April & September, with the peak in April being higher than that in Sept. and are at their lowest in June and December.

However in the case of the N.Polar region, the peaks are in April and December, with low points in February and July. On average, the December peak is higher than that in April.

After September, the other regions anomalies tend to fall, whereas the N.Pole anomalies tend to rise until December, then fall.

Any ideas why the N.Pole would behave differently to the rest of the N.H.?

The latest NCDC/NOAA Global State of the Climate report is quoting the following Land/Ocean temperature anomalies:

Global = 0.65c, compared to the previous March figure of 0.456c

N.H. = 0.89c, compared to the previous March figure of 0.519c

S.H. = 0.42c, compared to the previous March figure of 0.398c

After adjustment to the HadCRUT3 1961-90 base line, the above figures are equivalent to 0.512c, 0.80c and 0.24c respectively.

According to ncdc/noaa, the global anomaly figure is the 5th warmest April on record, the N.H. anomaly is the 1st warmest April, and the S.H. anomaly is the 16th warmest April.

The main influence gobally and in the N.H. seem to have been land temperatures, and in the S.H., ocean temperatures.

The increase in the global ncdc/noaa anomaly is similar to that in UAH and RSS, and points to a HadCRUT3 anomaly of around 0.5c, compared to a figure of 0.46c (+/- 0.1c), based entirely on AQUA CH5.

The increases in all of the N.H. anomalies so far published are similar and point to a HadCRUT3 anomaly of around 0.72c.

The increase in the S.H. anomaly is lower than UAH and RSS, but higher than for GISS, which was actually negative. A similar increase in HadCRUT3 would result in an anomaly of around 0.27c.

I am still awaiting the publication of the HadSST2 figures, which might produce a more reliable estimate of HadCRUT3.

Confirmation, if it were needed, that the "impression" gained from recent U.K. temperatures is misleading.

However, as I mentioned in my previous post, N.H. anomalies tend to peak in April, so if that pattern is followed, we can expect a fall over the next few months.