A taste of summer. But for how long?

Great news Mr. Hudson- but is that it??

Dear Paul. A, May and June are the Spring months. How can we enjoy the Summer in May when Summer doesn't start until 22June?

@2



That would be representative of a normal year.

This year we have had floods in a drought, before summer has even begun, it's definitely a post normal year.

#2 - grumpyoldman58 wrote:

"How can we enjoy the Summer in May when Summer doesn't start until 22June?"

Ah, but P.H. says "a taste of summer"!



The extended NCEP GFS projection on the policlimate website shows above normal temperatures in the UK until about the 26th/27th, then more normal.

https://policlimate.com/weather/current/ext_raw_temp_c.html

It's hard to say what effect this will have on the May average, but it seems unlikely that it will be in the "one of the coldest" category.

The last time I looked further ahead, the start of June was below normal, but for some reason it won't work for me now.

@4. QuaesoVeritas



Ryan Maue is showing some fairly chunky positive global anomalies at the end May and into June, it will be interesting to watch AQUA Ch05

'The weekly global sea surface temperature anomalies made another upward surge a couple of weeks ago in response to ebbing La Niña, and last week they made a very slight downturn. They are now at about 0.2 deg C.'

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/05/21/mid-may-2012-sea-surface-temperature-anomaly-update/

It's funny how despite the fact that we are continually being told how terrible "global warming" is going to be, most people in the u.k currently seem to be complaining about how cold it is and want a return to warmer weather.

April HadSST2 figures now uploaded by the M.O., after I asked why they were so late.

Global = 0.292c, compared to 0.241c last month and 0.265c in April 2011.

N.H. = 0.259c, compared to 0.193c last month and 0.225c in April 2011.

S.H. = 0.326c, compared to 0.290c last month and 0.304c in April 2011.

Based on the relationship between HadSST2 and HadCRUT3 over the last 10 years, the above are equivalent to HadCRUT3 figures of:

Global = 0.408 +/- 0.05c

N.H. = 0.497c +/- 0.09c

S.H. = 0.315c +/- 0.04c



The estimated global HadCRUT3 based on the last 5 years AQUA CH5 is 0.46c and a figure of 0.408c would make this month's rise lower than most other series, apart from NASA/GISS, so it is possible that the influence of land temperatures may put HadCRUT3 in the higher end of the likely range.

Blimey it's quiet - will someone please say something contentious!

Paul just to let you know that Hathersage open air "HEATED" swimming pool is heated to 28c. I/We who run the pool, would be greatful if you could correct your statement you made tonight, saying it was not heated.



Regards David Mander

#9. - lateintheday wrote:

"Blimey it's quiet - will someone please say something contentious!"

Everyone must be out enjoying all of this warm weather, brought to us by "global warming".

The last two days have seen CET figures above normal and that seems likely to continue, so May now seems unlikely to be particularly cold, over the month.

9.lateintheday wrote:



"Blimey it's quiet - will someone please say something contentious!"



This planet does not recognise months let alone "record months! It cares not one iota what metrics we dream up, Jan, Feb, Mar etc...In the life time of the planet they are infinitesimal, probably expressed in fractions of a nanosecond?

@12, greensand wrote:



“ probably expressed in fractions of a nanosecond? “



This is disingenuous, misleading and trivializes the importance of the matter. The time period concerned could be HUNDREDS of picoseconds. :)

For more contention how about:



https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/05/22/corrections-to-the-realclimate-presentation-of-modeled-global-ocean-heat-content/



or:



https://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/5/21/wicked-wikipedia.html



The comments include this gem of a quote from John Cook of SkS:



“ For this reason, it includes some information that is less than flattering. I believe this will help the article's chances of being accepted as a new entry. After it has been firmly established as a valid article, negative passages can be toned down or removed completely without putting the entire article in as much danger of being removed. So for the moment, I encourage the loyal contributors to SkS to put on their denier hats and not be hesitant to include sources that are critical of SkS, even if you believe the criticism is factually inaccurate. “

WeatherAction has published the following claim:



"1) May 2012...The Very cold Central/East Britain for first 3 weeks May as forecast..."



https://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=459&c=5



The actual prediction was:



"The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in Central and East parts with a record run of bitter Northerly winds.... Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%"



https://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=450&c=5



So the prediction was not for a "very cold Central/East Britain first 3 weeks" in May, it was for the the "coldest or near coldest MAY for 100 years in Central and East parts", especially "E / SE England".



'Cast not a clout [piece of clothing] 'til May be out' is an old saying in these parts (though it actually refers to the 'May Flower' or Hawthorne blossom). Even so, I'll refrain from casting any 'clouts' (of a different sort) for another week or so - until the period covered by the prediction is ended.



WeatherAction might yet be proved right - but despite the suggestion made in their latest pronouncement, their prediction has not *yet* been fulfilled - far from it.

Hello Paul.

My daughter Beth is doing Duke Of Edinburgh Award this weekend. Beth will be walking around Embassy and Bolton Abbey. Could you please let us know what the weather will be like? Thanks.

Josie Mcconnell

Josie,

I'm not sure if P.H. does bespoke weather forecasts, but the M.O. website does provide 5 day forecasts for many locations.

Here is the one for Parcevall Hall Gardens Appletreewick, which appears to be the closest location to Bolton Abbey:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=fiveDay&locId=352949

Looks like being sunny for both Saturday and Sunday, although windy on Saturday, if you believe the M.O. 5 day forecasts that is.

It pays to keep checking, as they have a habit of changing as they get closer.

@15 newdwr54



He also said on the 22nd about the current warm weather -



"I confirm that this is / will be a two day affair really ie Tue 22nd and Wed 23rd with 22nd prob warmest. More cloud and rain comes in from 23rd"



Thursday is looking good to me, and forecast to last into next week.



He also nominates a couple of sites for verification -



"At month end we need a fair measure of East parts - east Anglia (Marham?) , E Midlands (Nottingham?) as well as CET."

#15. - newdwr54 wrote:



"WeatherAction has published the following claim:

"1) May 2012...The Very cold Central/East Britain for first 3 weeks May as forecast...""



I had anticipated that there would be claims of success, on the basis of a cold start to the month, even if the end of the month was above average, and May was average as a whole.



While I suppose that a cold start to the month could be claimed as a partial success, as you say, the claim was for the whole of the month.

Since at the time of the prediction, there were probably GFS forecasts showing a cold start to the month, predicting a cold month overall wasn't anthing special.

However, we shouldn't be too harsh on WeatherAction, since they only claimed an 80% chance of a coldest May in 100 years, so there was a 20% chance of it not happening.

As a frequent swimmer at Hathersage pool I can assure you that it is always heated to a comfortable 28c and is warmer than the indoor pool I also use in Sheffield. Would you please correct the statement you made last night stating the pool was not heated as this might stop people from using this beautiful, friendly and WARM pool.

19. QuaesoVeritas wrote:



"....we shouldn't be too harsh on WeatherAction, since they only claimed an 80% chance of a coldest May in 100 years, so there was a 20% chance of it not happening."



Let's not forget the WeatherAction forecast with "90% confidence" of May 2012 being "In 5 coldest in 100yrs" in E/SE England.



Fair enough if they're wrong. Just so long as they admit it and don't try to alter the temporal or spatial range of their original forecast. As you say, the WA forecast was clearly for the month of May, which has 31 days and always has had, and covered E/SE England, not individual locations within that much larger geographical area.



The murmurings coming from WA posted by john-cogger above suggest that a hasty redaction of the original forecast may already under way. How long before this forecast enters the WA file labelled *private* alongside that their abysmal winter 2011/12 forecast?

"However, we shouldn't be too harsh on WeatherAction, since they only claimed an 80% chance of a coldest May in 100 years, so there was a 20% chance of it not happening."



Surely a claim like this could be judged to determine if it was within 80% of being the coldest May in a century?

No because the 20% could have covered a completely different result.



He got it right for the first part of the month though, or near-to-right, I am not sure whether the first N days of May were ever within the 5 coldest since 1910 but they May have been. CET at one point near the middle of the month was below -1C anomaly. Looks like it'll end up above 0 now.

Thank you for your correction you made about Hathersge pool tonight.



Dave

@23 Quake



When Scotland recently set a record day temp for the end of March, Piers argued that it shouldn't count as the end of March would naturally be warmer than the beginning. Therefore using his rational, having a cold start to May means nothing as it's closer to Winter so naturally cooler than the end.

23. quake wrote:



"[WeatherAction] got it right for the first part of the month though, or near-to-right..."



I think you're being generous to a fault there quake. If you back a horse to win the Grand National and it leads all the way round but falls at the last fence, you wouldn't expect a bookie to pay out.



Likewise, if you make a forecast about average temperatures over a specified a time period, e.g. "May", and across a specified region, e.g. E/SE England, then your forecast isn't 'right' unless: i) the time period is fully expired, and ii) you stick to the region initially specified (i.e. you don't try to narrow it down by cherry-picking isolated locations within it).



Corbyn must have been aware that the end of May is always much more likely to be warmer in the UK than the beginning of May. He can't stop the entire month 3/4 of the way through just because it provides a better fit to his forecast. He said "May". May it is.



He can't start cherry picking individual towns and villages within E/SE England and Central England. He said "E/SE England and Central England". E/SE England and Central England it is.



He's not noted for his tolerance of the mistakes made by other forecasters. Let's see, *if* he's got this one wrong, whether he's big enough to admit to making a mistake?

It crossed my mind that I might be able to make more accurate estimates of the HadCRUT3 figure by combining HadSST2 with either NASA/GISS or NCDC/NOAA land temperatures, rather than using HadSST2 alone.

After adjusting both series to 1961-90, it appears that GISS is the closest to CRUTEM3, and I was quite surprised to find that NCDC/NOAA land anomalies tend to be much more volatile and peak much higher than either GISS or CRUTEM3.

I did some trials using various combinations of HadSST2 and GISS land anomalies and while sometimes using GISS in addition to HadSST2 produced a more accurate estimate, it wasn't entirely consistent.

Anyway, probably a lot more work involved, but using the simple average of HadSST2 and GISS, my estimate for April HadCRUT3 is 0.45c, and using a 3:2 weighting for HadSST2, it's 0.42c.

These compare to 0.41c using HadSST2 alone, and 0.46c using AQUA CH5.

Hopefully by next month, I might have found the best combination of HadSST2 and GISS to use.

27. QuaesoVeritas:



Thanks once again for your work and summaries, which I must admit more often than not turn out to be within the projected error bands (in this case 0.41-0.46, if I'm not mistaken).



My guess for 2012 of +0.45 (HadCRUT3) is looking unlikely, imv. The April 2012 figure would need to be at the high end of your estimate for it to stand a reasonable chance.



This would only change if El Nino conditions initiated within the next few months - to give time for the ocean heat release to be spread globally pre Jan 2013.



However I would offer the observation that the globe is most certainly *not* cooling, and that 2012 temps to date, and the SST observations, etc suggest it will probably end up within the top 10 warmest years recorded in the instrument period.



What do you think?

Summer weather - not a moment too soon.



The prolonged cold was starting to have quite an effect on vegetation. Here, some horse chestnuts were dropping buds without even opening. Cherry seems affected by some sort of "scab" presumably related to low temps - even hawthorn similarly.



Within a few hours of the warmer weather starting, much delayed butterfly species started to appear e.g holly blue, orange tip.



If changable weather resumes - so long as it is not too cold things should be able to catch up and indeed are doing so rapidly.



As for Corbyn- don't waste your time. After all, because its all so "secret" we don't even know how much info he actually borrows from other sources anyway. I don't buy this "trade secret" stuff. If he really has a superior method of forecasting, he could become one of the most highly regarded meteorologists on earth.



He might even be appointed to the IPCC - lead it even. Then he could then- (considering he thinks AGW is nonsense) abolish himself!

Regarding the Weather Action forecast.

Not being a follower of their forecasts, I don't even know when the forecast was made or how it compared to other forecasts by the MET office for example. If anyone does know, that would be very interesting.



For my money, the start and end dates of a long range forecast are irrelevant. As is the precise length of a Month. I think we all agree that accurately predicting the weather beyond say 7 days, is nigh on impossible and long range forecasting can at best, only give a general outlook. If Piers thinks otherwise, he's bonkers, no matter what system he uses.



I'll assume that when the forecast was made, the NH temp anomaly was known to be positive and thought to be rising. I also note that while we shivered, much of Europe experienced a spell of gloriously warm spring weather. What were the chances of the UK (East) actually bucking this trend and getting all of the miserable weather? What were the chances of it lasting so long? Who else saw it coming at the time?



Actually, I don't know the answer to those questions but from the comments above I'd guess that this particular forecast was 'out on a limb' bigstyle. In which case, in my view he got it right. Clearly, he doesn't always get it right - but this time, he did.



Newdwr54 brings in a horse race analogy which I think is unfair. I suggest that this WA forecast was like predicting a 7-0 thrashing for a game between equally matched teams. I'd then say that the prediction could be described as accurate for any result with a five goal margin.

#28. - newdwr54 wrote:

"However I would offer the observation that the globe is most certainly *not* cooling, and that 2012 temps to date, and the SST observations, etc suggest it will probably end up within the top 10 warmest years recorded in the instrument period."



Whether or not the world is "cooling", depends on your time-scale.

Certainly recent temperatures are not as high as they were around 1998, but there is no doubt that is a slight downturn in a longer-term upward trend.



I was expecting temperatures to start rising rapidly, on the back of El Nino, but that seems to have fizzled out a bit. Looking at the figures for May so far, my estimated HadCRUT3 for May is now about 0.40c, based on temp. continuing to rise at roughly the current rate, which is lower than the April estimate based on AQUA CH5, but not much lower than some of the possible May figures.

A figure of 0.46c for April and 0.4c for the rest of the year, would produce a final annual figure of about 0.365c.

jkiller - as our resident 'nature' go to man, any idea what might be responsible for a veritable 'snowlike' seed event in Lincolnshire yesterday? Over the course of a few hours, there was a constant fall and drift of fluffy white seeds, (cotton like) averaging around 1cm in size.



I'm assuming it's the result of a local fallow field being mowed (or similar), but whatever this stuff was, I'm going to have a garden full of it when it starts to grow. It came down from above tree height - hence the 'snowlike' description.

lateintheday



I noticed a lot of seed heads in the air yesterday in N Ireland too. I put this down to residue from the first silage cut, which many local farmers have decided to take this week. Perhaps the warm air has given dandelion seed heads, etc added buoyancy, increasing their range?



I heard a local farming bod say that every day of this late warm weather has added about a further 1,000kg of dry crop per hectare of grassland. Farmers who cut early will be kicking themselves.

Thanks for that newdwr54, but whatever this stuff was it would have to come under your 'etc' category. One thing's for sure, if it's weed, it'll find plenty of company in my garden.

April HadCRUT3 figures:

Global = 0.482c, compared to 0.305c last month and 0.408c last April.

N.H. = 0.665c, compared to 0.351c last month and 0.523c last April.

S.H. = 0.299c, compared to 0.258c last month and 0.293c last April.

The global & N.H. actuals are a quite a bit higher than my estimates, but quite close to the one based on AQUA CH5.

This seems to be due to the N.H. & S.H. CRUTEM3 land figures being higher than the GISS land only figures adjusted to 1961-90.

In fact, the CRUTEM3 figures relative to 1961-90, are actually higher than the unadjusted GISS figures, which are relative to 1951-80.

In this case, the adjusted NCDC/NOAA figure might have been a better guide.

to lateintheday#32 and newdrw54#33



Regarding seeds/fluff : could be one of several things including dandylion. But the most likely if the "fluff" was somewhat amorphous and clumpy would be willow seeds - particularly goat and grey willows. They are releasing their seeds at the moment. Poplars are another possibility but are usually a bit later in the year. The seeds themselves are very small, embedded within the fluff and unless they find a nice moist seedbed within a few days, have a very short survival period ( unlike many seeds).



Dandylions are also "at large" but their seeds are clearly individual with a little parachute like feathery top to catch the wind. So have a close look.



Glad to be of service, but I regret my attention to the blog has been diverted recently due to the fact that I spend a lot of time away from the computer at this time of year - especially when the weather is so good!

A little anecdote that might be of interest to some of you.



I was chatting to a tradesman the other day (call him Mr. Average for argument's sake). He happened to mention that he often read the PH blog. "Do you write on it?" I asked. "No! those who do are really technical people" he replied. I smiled inwardly at this - "Yes, some are" I agreed, "but some are just plain barking".



I wondered what he made of the comments on the blog. "They play it (AGW) down a bit" he thought, revealing himself to be a fairly convinced warmist. "but to be honest I don't read the comments much" - though he expressed high regard for Mr. H himself.



I had to concur with his general view - "Yes", I sympathised "you get the same arguments against AGW over and over again. And there are some really good technical answers given in reply - but these people just go on repeating 'well I don't believe that'". We laughed.



Not a very broad cross section of the British public admittedly. But I guess, if you want to sound impressive, be technical - but if you want to be influential, be readable.

#37. - jkiller56 wrote:

"A little anecdote that might be of interest to some of you."

Your "tradesman", has clearly accepted everything which has been fed to him in the media by the "experts".

He is in no position to judge whether or not the "experts" are correct, unless he checks some of the facts himself and makes some attempt to think for himself.