Mareykanka iyo Shiinaha oo wada hadlaya. Maxaa keenay in ay waqtigan wadahadlaan?

Dagaalka ganacsiga ee Maraykanka iyo Shiinaha ayaa laga yaabaa inuu hakad galo, iyadoo labada waddan ee ugu dhaqaalaha badan dunida ay wada-hadallo uga billaaban doonaan Switzerland.

Saraakiisha sarsare ee ganacsiga labada dhinac ayaa ku kulmi doona maantay oo Sabti ah kulankii ugu horeeyay ee heer sare ah tan iyo markii madaxweynaha Mareykanka Donald Trump uu Shiinaha ku soo rogay canshuur bishii Janaayo.

Beijing ayaa markiiba ka falcelisay, waxana arintaasi ka dhashay ismariwaa xooggan oo labada dal uu midba midka kale ku soo rogay canshuuro. Canshuuraha cusub ee Mareykanka uu ku soo rogay badeecadaha Shiinaha uu soo dejiyo ayaa gaaraya 145%, qaar ka mid ah waxyaabaha uu Mareykanka u dhoofiyo Shiinaha ayaa wajahaya canshuur dhan 125%.

Waxaa jiray toddobaadyo dag, mararka qaarkoodna xamaasad leh, halkaas oo qolo kastaaba ay doneysay in ay tan kale u sawirto xaalad quus ah.

Haddaba dhamaadka toddobaadkan waxay isku arki doonaan miiska wada xaajoodka.

Haddaba waa maxay sababta hadda ay wadahad-layaan?

Wadahalku ma nqon doonaa mid mira dhala ?

In kasta oo ay jiraan arima badan oo middi middi ku tag ah, labada dhinacba waxa ay dirayeen calaamado muujinaya in ay doonayaan in ay ka gudbaan ismari waaga. Marka taas laga yimaado ma cadda cidda marka hore soo debci doonta.

"Labada dhinac midkoodna ma doonayo inuu u muuqdo in uu dib u laabanayo," ayuu yiri Stephen Olson, oo ah oo k tirsan Machadka ISEAS-Yusof Ishak ee Singapore, horeyna u ahaan jiray wadaxajoodaha ganacsiga Mareykanka.

"Wadahadallada ayaa hadda dhacaya sababtoo ah labada waddan waxay ku qiimeeyeen inay hore u socon karaan iyagoon u muuqan inay is dhiibeen."

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, afhayeenka wasaaradda arrimaha dibadda ee Shiinaha Lin Jian ayaa carrabka ku adkeeyay Arbacadii in "wadahadallada lagu qabanayo codsi ka yimid Mareykanka".

Waxayna wasaaradda ganacsigu u qaabaysay sidii ay uga faa'iidaysan lahayd Washington, iyadoo sheegtay inay ka jawaabayso "baaqyada ganacsatada iyo macaamiisha Maraykanka".

Si kastaba ha ahaatee maamulka Trump ayaa ku andacoonaya inay yihiin mas'uuliyiinta Shiinaha kuwa doonaya inay "ganacsi sameeyaan" sababtoo ah "dhaqaalahooda ayaa sii dhacaya".

"Waxay yiraahdeen waan bilownay? Hagaag, waxa aan u maleynayaa inay tahay inay dib u laabtaan oo ay daraaseeyaan faylalkooda," Trump ayaa sidaasi ka sheegay Aqalka Cad Arbacadii.

Laakiin markii uu wadahadalku soo dhawaaday, madaxweynuhu wuxuu soo saaray qoraal diblomaasiyadeed oo dheeri ah: "Dhammaanteen waan ciyaari karnaa ciyaaraha. Yaa sameeyay wicitaankii ugu horreeyay, yaasan sameynin - dhib ma leh," ayuu u sheegay suxufiyiinta Khamiistii. "Waxa kaliya ee muhiim ah waa waxa ka dhacaya qolkaas."

Waqtiga ayaa sidoo kale muhiim u ah Beijing sababtuna waa booqashada Xi ee Moscow. Waxa uu Jimcihii marti-sharaf ka ahaa dhoolatuska maalinta guusha Moscow oo lagu xusayay sannad-guuradii 80-aad ee kasoo wareegtay guushii ay ka gaareen dagaalkii labaad ee Adduunka ee Nazi-ga Jarmalka.

Xi waxa uu garab taagnaa hogaamiyayaasha koonfurta ee caalamiga ah – taas oo xasuusineysa maamulka Trump in Shiinuhu aanu kaliya haysan ikhtiyaar kale oo ganacsi, laakiin sidoo kale ay isu soo bandhigayaan sidii hogaamiye caalami ah oo kale.

Tani waxay u ogolaaneysaa Beijing inay awood u yeelato xitaa marka ay u socoto miiska wada xaajoodka.

Cadaadis ayaa jira

Trump ayaa ku adkeysanaya in canshuuraha ay Mareykanka ka dhigi doonaan mid xoogan, Beijing waxay wacad ku martay inay "dagaallameyso ilaa dhamaadka" - laakiin xaqiiqdu waxay tahay in canshuurau ay dhaawaceen labada waddan.

Wax soo saarka warshadaha ee Shiinaha ayaa gaaray heer sare, sida laga soo xigtay xogta dawladda. Dhaqdhaqaaqa wax-soo-saarka ee bishii Abriil ayaa hoos u dhacay heerkii ugu hooseeyay tan iyo Disembar 2023. Sahan ay toddobaadkan samaysay shabakadda wararka ee Caixin ayaa muujiyay in dhaq-dhaqaaqa adeegyadu ay gaareen heerkii ugu hooseeyay muddo toddoba bilood ah.

Dhanka kale, hubanti la'aanta ka dhalatay canshuuraha ayaa horseeday in dhaqaalaha Mareykanka uu hoos u dhacay markii ugu horeysay muddo seddex sano ah.

Warshadaha in muddo ah ku tiirsanaa badeecadaha Shiinaha lagu sameeyo ayaa si gaar ah uga walaacsan canshuuraha. Milkiilaha shirkadda alaabooyinka lagu ciyaara ee caruurta ee Los Angeles ayaa BBC-da u sheegay in ay " eegayaan wadarta guud ee iksu xirnaanta saadka".

Trump laftiisa ayaa qiray in macaamiisha Maraykanku ay dareemi doonaan qaniinyada.

"Labada waddan waxay dareemayaan cadaadis si ay u siiyaan waxoogaa dammaanad ah suuqyada, dareenka sii kordhaya, ganacsiyada, iyo degaannada gudaha," Mr Olson ayaa sdaasi yiri.

"Labo maalmood oo shirar ah oo Geneva ka dhacaya ayaa looga hadli doonaa ujeedooyinkaas."

Maxay noqon doontaa tallaabada xigta?

Iyadoo wada-hadallada laga dareemay rajo wanaagsan, haddana heshiisku wuxuu qaadan karaa waqti dheer si uu u hirgalo.

Wadahadallada ayaa inta badan ku saabsan "arimaha la isku hayo ", ayuu yiri Mr Hofman, isaga oo intaa ku daray in tani ay u ekaan karto "isweydaarsiga jagooyinka" iyo, haddii arrimuhu si wanaagsan u dhacaan, "ajendaha [waxaa la dejin doonaa] wadahadalka mustaqbalka".

Guud ahaan wada xaajoodyada ayaa la filayaa inay qaataan muddo bilo ah, si la mid ah wixii dhacay xilligii ugu horreeyay ee Trump.

Ka dib ku dhawaad muddo laba sano oo canshuur middi middi ku taag ah, Mareykanka iyo Shiinaha waxay saxiixeen heshiis "wajiga koowaad" horraantii 2020 si loo hakiyo ama loo yareeyo qaar ka mid ah canshuuraha. Xitaa markaa, kuma aysan darin qoddobada khilaafka weyn leh, sida kabka dawladda Shiinaha ee warshadaha muhiimka ah ama wakhtiga lagu baabi'inayo canshuuraha haray.

"Khilaafyada nidaamsan waxa ay u dhimayaan xiriirkaa ganacsi ee Maraykanka iyo Shiinaha lama xalin doono wakhti dhow," Mr Olson ayaa sidaasi sheegay.

"Geneva kaliya waxay soo saari doontaa oraah dabacsan oo ku saabsan 'wadahadal daacad ah' iyo rabitaanka in la sii wadahadalka."