African export products wey Trump new US tariffs hit well

Di special arrangement wey favour African kontris wey dey trade wit di United States ova di last 25 years go take a hit as di U.S. impose new tariffs on imports into di kontri.

Crude oil exports from kontris like Nigeria, Ghana, Gabon, Angola, and textile products from Kenya, Madagascar, and Lesotho go be di most impacted by any future trade between African kontris and di U.S.

For Cote D'Ivoire, na Cocoa exports, while for South Africa, exports of vehicles and precious metals go dey impacted.

Last year, 2024, African kontris bin export $39.5 billion worth of goods to di U.S. But no be a one-side trade, as di U.S. also export $32.1 billion worth of goods to Africa, an increase of 11.9 percent ($3.4 billion) from 2023.

Howeva, Africa exports to di US na only 6.4% of di total exports from di continent for 2022 according to di African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), and di trade don experience a decline during di last decade.

Much of dat decline dey attributed to di rise of shale oil production for di United States wey don reduce di need to import crude oil from African kontris, wey be di continent major export.

Di African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) don give African exporters duty-free access to di American market for many products under defined conditions.

But wit U.S. President Donald Trump latest tariff announcement, a sweeping policy wey impose a minimum 10% tariff on all imports and higher rates for some kontris, Agoa future dey suddenly uncertain.

Di new tariffs affect kontris all ova di world including about 20 African kontris wey dia exports go attract more dan di 10% flat rate.

For kontris like Lesotho, Madagascar, and South Africa wia exports to America drive key sectors especially textiles and vehicles, businesses now dey scramble to assess di potential damage.

For oda kontris, cocoa and crude oil exports go dey more impacted.

How African kontris go dey impacted

About half of kontris for Africa go dey subjected to di 10% flat rate tariff, but some odas including Nigeria and South Africa go see higher tariffs of 14% and 30% respectively, on dia exports.

Di most impacted kontri for Africa na Lesotho wey dia exports now face 50% tariffs, while Madagascar apparel sector face a crushing 47% tariff.

But di impact on kontris go dey different, especially for dose wey dey export more to di US than odas.

South Africa total exports to di US na only 8% of dia total exports for 2024, according to govment data.

And while vehicles account for di bulk of South Africa exports to di US, only 11% of di kontri vehicle exports actually go to di US for 2022, according to di World Bank.

But di US say South Africa dey charge 60% on some U.S. auto imports, leading to di 30% 'retaliatory' tariff on South African exports.

Also, while Nigeria bin export $3.5 billion worth of goods to di US for 2022, mostly crude oil, dis na only about 5% of Nigeria total exports.

Di trend dey similar across Africa wia overall exports no dey mostly go to di United States.

But e get certain products such as textiles wia some kontris like Lesotho, Madagascar, Kenya get industries built around exporting dia products to di U.S.

According to di office of di US Trade Representative, a ranking of African kontris by exports and products under Agoa in 2022 show di following:

Under AGOA, many African exports enta di U.S. market wit no tariffs wey allow African businesses to remain competitive for di U.S. market.

But no be evri export to di U.S. from Africa dey under Agoa.

"Dis (new tariff) fundamentally touch on Africa trade landscape wit di U.S.," Prof. Ken Ife tok, a development economist.

"Di cost advantage wey African businesses enjoy under AGOA don effectively go."

How Lesotho and Madagascar na di worse hit?

For Lesotho, 85% of di kontri apparel exports go to di US for 2022, according to di IMF. But di kontri go now see dia goods subjected to 50% tariffs bifor e enta di US market.

Dis rate, according to di US na sake of Lesotho wey dey charge 99% tariff on American goods wey dey enta di landlocked kontri.

Lesotho textile and apparel manufacturing industry dey considered as di second-largest employer for di kontri afta di govment. Dem once employing about 46,000 workers for dia peak.

Anoda kontri wey chop high tariffs for Africa na Madagascar wey dey export 43% of dia textile and clothing products to di US for 2022, according to di World Bank.

Dia products go now attract 47% for tariff, in response to wetin di US say e be 93% levied on American goods wey dey enta di kontri.

Di Trump administration don defend di higher tariffs by citing wetin e call "unfair" trade practices.

According to di White House, some African nations impose steep import duties on American goods to justify di new reciprocal tariff system.

"Di U.S. don dey take advantage of for years," President Trump tok for di White House briefing.

"If African nations want access to our markets, make dem lower dia own tariffs first."

Na di unofficial end of Agoa?

Agoa dey set to expire for September dis year, but wit dis tariffs in place, e dey unclear if di preferential trade arrangement between di US and Sub-Saharan African kontris go still get any effect.

"Na our considered view say until di law lapses end of September 2025 or unless repealed earlier by Congress, di new tariffs imposed by President Trump go in any event, no dey immediately applicable", Kenyan Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary, Korir Sing'oei tok for im statement.

While Agoa technically remain in place, Trump tariffs fit severely weaken di benefits.

According to Annabel Bishop, Chief Economist at Investec for Johannesburg, "Agoa na separate agreement. E dey up for review later dis year, but of course, fit dey cancelled earlier.

"Di bottom line na, if di US decide to override dat piece of legislation, den, of course, dat go obviously cause South Africa to den face dis higher costs," Bishop tok.

Meanwhile, South Africa presidency say on Thursday dat di new U.S. tariffs underscore di need to negotiate a new bilateral trade deal wit Washington to ensure long-term trade certainty.

"While South Africa remain committed to a mutually beneficial trade relationship wit di United States, unilaterally imposed and harsh tariffs na concern and serve as a barrier to trade and shared prosperity," di President office say.