Prigozhin be dead man walking before?

Ever since e lead a mutinous march on Moscow for late June Yevgeny Prigozhin don dey described by Russia watchers as "a dead man walking".

Commenting recently on di mercenary boss life expectancy di CIA Director William Burns even say: "If I be Prigozhin I no go fire my food taster"

If e ever dey proven say di mid-air destruction of a plane wy bin dey carry Yevgeny Prigozhin be act of deliberate, cold-blooded revenge by di Kremlin, dis go down in Russian history as di ultimate "special military operation".

Prigozhin, wey be former convict, chef and hot dog salesman-turned mercenary boss, get plenti admirers amongst di ranks of im Wagner mercenary army and beyond. Many for don witness im warm reception by di public for Rostov-on-Don when h=e turned up there exactly two months ago for di throes of im aborted one-day rebellion.

But e also get plenti enemies for Moscow, most notably for di upper ranks of di Russian military whose leaders e dey alwys and publicly criticise.

Wetin don probably turn out to be im fatal mistake na crossing President Putin when e launch dat march on Moscow on 23 June. Although e no mention Putin by name at di time, Prigozhin vex di Kremlin by very publicly criticising di official reasons wey Russia give for invasion of Ukraine for February 2022. E tell Russians say dem don deceive dem and dat dia son dem dem dey die for Ukraine war due to poor leadership. Dis na heresy and Putin video message on dat day dey sizzle with vitriol. E called Prigozhin march on Moscow a betrayal and a stab for di back.

Vladimir Putin no dey forgive traitors nor dos wey challenge am.

Di former Russian intelligence officer-turned defector, Alexander Litvinenko, die slow and agonising death for one London hospital for 2006 after e bin dey poisoned with radioactive Polonium-210.

A subsequent investigate conclude say dis assassins carry di lethal substance with dem from Russia andna from Russian government laboratory dem fiot get am from. Moscow deny any involvement but no gree surrender di two suspects for trial.

Den Sergei Skripal, a former Russian KGB officer and again a defector to Britain. For 2018 e and im daughter Yulia narrowly escape death wen GRU Russian military intelligence officers allegedly put Novichok nerve agent on di door handle of im house for Salisbury. Dem later find a discarded perfume bottle containing di lethal agent by a local Wiltshire resident, Dawn Sturgess, wey die after she apply am to her wrists.

Inside Russia long list of pipo, wey include both critics and businessmen dey, wey don die suddenly, for some cases "falling out of upper floor windows". President Putin most vocal opponent, Alexei Navalny, now dey suffer for a penal colony on wetin dem say be politically-motivated fraud charges. E too survive assassination by Novichok nerve agent poisoning after nearly dying onboard a flight across Siberia for 2020.

But Prigozhin na very different case, wey make im demise all di more controversial for Russians. Dis na one man wey dey extremely useful to di Kremlin and wey Russians see as a national hero.

Im Wagner group of mercenaries, wey dem found for 2014, dey formed from a hard core of former Russian Speznaz (Special Forces) operatives and oda soldiers. E don dey highly active for eastern Ukraine wia e drive di Ukrainian army out of Bakhmut, acquiring a fearsome reputation wey no dey shared by di often weak and poorly-led regular Russian army.

Wagner bin support im ranks wen Prigozhin personally tour Russian penal colonies to recruit thousands of convicts, wey include rapists and murderers. Dem use dem effectively as cannon fodder for eastern Ukraine wia commanders bin order dem to advance into withering fire for repeated attempts to overwhelm di enemy lines.

Wagner don dey operate for Syria for years but na for Africa wia dem don achieve strategic success for di Kremlin. Dia dem don develop a brutally effective business model wey dey prove popular with undemocratic regimes. By providing a range of "security services", from VIP protection to influencing elections, silencing critics, dem don receive in return mineral rights and access to gold and oda precious metals for several African states. Money flows back to Moscow and everyone get rich - except di actual populations of dos kontris.

Wagner troops don chop accuse of numerous human rights abuses wey include di massacre of civilians for Mali and Central African Republic. Yet dem don succeed for supplanting French and oda western forces across a huge swathe of di African continent.

Only dis week Prigozhin pop up on a Telegram channel for a video wey dey presumed to be filmed for one base in Mali, wia e bin dey promise an expansion of Wagner activities in Africa and "freedom" for im pipo.

Despite all dis, certainly some dey back for Moscow, notably for military intelligence, wey see am as a liability, a loose cannon and a potential future threat to Putin rule and di system around am.