World of Work in Northern Ireland

Looking Ahead

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Postscript in 2009

During 2008-9 and probably into 2010, the economic expansion of earlier in the decade has been reversed. Unemployment is increasing, real incomes are lower and a greater degree of uncertainty is now in evidence. House prices have fallen sharply.

Whilst there is uncertainty about the depth of the recession in 2009 and the speed of the upturn in 2010 and beyond, there is less uncertainty about the changes that are likely in the Northern Ireland economy.

A forecast prepared for Government shows that there may be extensive changes in the next decade. Manufacturing may employ fewer people but improving innovation and technical change will mean that manufacturing production stays more buoyant. The big employment expansions are likely to be in providing business services, health and social work, and in retailing along with leisure activities (including hotels and restaurants).

A feature of the shift in economic activity will be a further upward movement in the skills and qualifications expected or needed by employers. In the next decade, Northern Ireland may move from a workforce where 27% of employees have only low qualifications (or none) to only 12% in 2020. In contrast, third level academic or vocational skills will be needed for 49% of jobs, up from 33% at present.

Part of the impact will be a further expansion in demand for ICT skills and for third level qualifications in STEM subjects (Science, technology, engineering and mathematics).

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