Thomas Copeland
BBC Verify Live journalist

Just before we close BBC Verify Live let’s recap some of the stories we’ve been working on today.

We’ve looked at the insights publicly available flight tracking can give us about the movement of US military aircraft as speculation mounts that Washington could carry out strikes on Iran.

Along with BBC Persian we’ve verified footage from inside Iran showing bodies piled up in a hospital following the unprecedented crackdown on protests earlier this month. You can read our full story here.

Plus, new data shows that vaping is now more popular than smoking among younger adults in England. Click here to see the trends over the past decade.

BBC Verify Live will be back tomorrow.

If you want more of our videos, investigations and analysis then head to the BBC Verify pages on the BBC News website.

Ben Chu
BBC Verify policy and analysis correspondent

Treasury minister Dan Tomlinson has told MPs that British pubs will get a 15% cut to their new business rates bills from April 2026, followed by a two-year, real-terms freeze in their taxes.

This is in response to complaints from some pubs that they were facing significant increases in businesses rates from April due to the end of a Covid-era relief scheme and also the timing of a three-yearly revaluation of their premises, which determines their tax bills.

Responding for the Conservatives, shadow chancellor Mel Stride suggested the announcement would open up a hole in the government’s fiscal plans and could require tax rises to fill it.

The Treasury has told BBC Verify it expects the cost of the additional tax relief for pubs in 2026-27 to be around £80m. The cost for future years will be worked out by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the official forecaster, at the next Budget which is due in the autumn.

We’ll have to wait for the OBR’s official costing, but it’s worth bearing in mind that £80m is a relatively small sum for the government given in 2026-27 it is projected to spend £1.4tn and raise £1.1tn in tax.

A gap of £80m would not necessarily require new tax rises to cover it.

Anthony Reuben
BBC Verify senior journalist

Image source, Jeff Overs/BBC

The UK government has announced changes to the leasehold system under which the land on which houses or flats are built is owned by a freeholder who can then charge the property owner ground rent.

Among the changes is that ground rent will be capped at £250 a year in England and Wales.

Conservative shadow housing minister Gareth Bacon told MPs: “It is reported that the chancellor of the Exchequer is against capping ground rents because she believes it will deter pension fund investors.” The minister did not respond to that suggestion.

The Residential Freehold Association (RFA), which represents freeholders, estimates that pension funds have invested more than £15bn in freeholds to earn ground rent. We asked the RFA how that figure was worked out and they told us it was “based on internal research and industry benchmarking”.

For context, £15bn would be a relatively small proportion of pension fund investments. The Office for National Statistics said in October, external that the market value of private sector defined benefit and hybrid pension schemes alone was £1.1tn.

Benedict Garman
BBC Verify senior journalist

Satellite imagery shows the Israeli military has recently paved one of its forward operating bases deep inside the Gaza Strip.

The base was built north-east of Gaza City in the days immediately following the ceasefire last October.

It is more than 3km (2 miles) from the border with Israel, and just over 400m (1,300ft) behind the yellow line on military maps that marks where Israeli troops agreed to withdraw under the terms of the ceasefire.

Low resolution satellite photos show that on 20 January the base is unpaved but three days later it is paved. A clearer image was captured on 26 January.

“This looks like Israel digging in rather than preparing to leave,” said Dr HA Hellyer, an expert on Middle East geopolitics and security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi). “Paving a base turns what should be a temporary military position into something more permanent,” he added.

Hellyer said the fact it is being paved now is significant because “it signals a clear lack of commitment to Phase 2, rather than creating conditions for de-escalation.”

Phase 2 of the ceasefire was announced earlier in January by US envoy Steve Witkoff. He said it would see the reconstruction and full demilitarisation of Gaza.

BBC Verify has asked the Israel Defense Forces to comment on why it has paved the base.

Kumar Malhotra and Peter Mwai
BBC Verify

Image source, X/Sudan War Updates

We’ve been analysing new footage said to show a breakthrough for Sudan’s army in its struggle against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to control a major route through the south of the country.

Verified videos show soldiers from the army and allied groups, along with some local civilians, celebrating the breaking of a siege imposed by the RSF on Dilling in South Kordofan, which has seen a surge of fighting in the long-running civil war.

One was filmed near a main junction in the town, which we confirmed using the location of a nearby communications tower, adjacent buildings and other features visible on Google Earth.

Another video was taken further south along that same road near a bridge over a riverbed and a third shows soldiers driving Jeeps close to a nearby mosque that we located using its distinctive white minaret.

The Sudanese Armed Forces today said it had inflicted “heavy losses” on the RSF, causing its remaining fighters to flee. A pro-RSF account described the withdrawal as deliberate and part of a “strategic plan”.

Rob England and Libby Rogers
BBC Verify

As Storm Chandra is causing flooding, heavy rain and strong winds across the UK, you might be left wondering, when did we last see these sorts of weather conditions?

Figures from the Environment Agency offer part of the picture. BBC Verify’s data team has been checking the numbers.

As of 13:00 GMT, there was one severe flood warning (indicating danger to life) and 119 flood warnings (meaning flooding is expected) active across England, external, most of them in the South and South West.

The Met Office says some areas in southern England and Wales have already received more rainfall than they would in an average winter, external, and we’re only halfway through the season.

Looking at data up to the end of 2025, the last time the number of flood warnings reached this level in England was on 6 January 2025, when nearly 250 flood warnings and one severe warning were in place.

Those were mostly issued in the Midlands, including Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Lincolnshire.

Despite the wet start in 2025, the Met Office said the year ended as the UK’s warmest and sunniest on record, external, with notably dry conditions in spring and summer.

Gerry Georgieva
BBC Verify researcher

Image source, Green Party

A chart entitled “only Greens can stop Reform in Gorton & Denton” is being used to promote the Green Party in the forthcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.

The bars show Reform at +12%, the Greens at +11% and Labour at -20% with the message “Labour have blown it”.

But this chart lacks important context.

It is only when you look at the small print that you can see that these figures refer to the change in expected vote share since the 2024 General Election rather than overall support for these parties.

In last week’s projections by Election Maps UK, external, which were used as the source for this chart, Labour are projected to win with a vote share of 29.8% – 2.9% more than Reform and 5.7% more than the Greens.

In a statement advising campaigners on how to present political support statistics the Office for Statistics Regulation, external says “polling or election results data should be visualised in a way that does not mislead the average reader about the relative support for different parties”.

We will be looking for more claims from political parties about the by-election ahead of the vote, which is expected in late February.

Yi Ma
BBC Verify researcher

Image source, X

The head of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region has said on Telegram, external that two schools in Kharkiv city were hit during a Russian drone strike overnight.

I’ve verified that a video of a fire burning inside a building and extensive damage to the surrounding structure was taken at a boarding school for children with special educational needs in the city.

I was able to locate where the video was taken by matching neighbouring buildings’ exterior features with street view images on Google Maps.

I reverse-searched key frames from the video and could confirm the footage was not uploaded before yesterday.

Four people were reportedly injured in Kharkiv city overnight. It is unclear if there were any casualties from the school.

Paul Brown
BBC Verify senior journalist

Image source, Telegram

Authorities in Ukraine say at least two people were killed during a "massive" overnight drone attack on the port city of Odesa.

Regional governor Oleh Kiper said dozens of residential and other buildings had been damaged in the attack.

I have geolocated photographs of two badly damaged buildings based on the details provided in Kiper’s social media post.

Both are residential blocks located around 2km (1.2 miles) from each other. It appears one of the buildings has partially collapsed.

Lucy Dady
BBC Verify data journalist

Vaping is now more popular than smoking among younger adults, according to figures published this morning by NHS England.

The latest Health Survey for England found 18% of 16-24 year olds and 15% of 25-34 year olds said they currently use e-cigarettes or vapes compared with 11% and 13% who smoke.

Smoking remains more popular than vaping amongst over-45s - but the gap is narrowing.

Vaping - inhaling vapour containing tobacco - started to rise in popularity in 2021 when there was a large increase in the availability of disposable vapes, external. You can see that sharp increase in the blue line in both panels of the chart below.

Alex Murray
BBC Verify journalist

We’ve been keeping a close eye on US military aircraft movements in recent days as speculation continues about whether the US is going to carry out strikes on targets in Iran.

On 18 January a Facebook post showed US Air Force F-15 fighter jets departing their base at RAF Lakenheath, external in Suffolk. US Central Command (CentCom) announced the jets had landed in the Middle East two days later, external

Because fighter jets don’t tend to disclose their positions it’s hard to track them on publicly available platforms like FlightRadar24.

However, the air refuelling tankers that often fly with them do tend to be more visible as you can see here in this screenshot taken on 18 January. It tracked the tankers - and at least one F-15 - as far as the Greek island of Crete.

Image source, FlightRadar24

Attention is now focused on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its supporting warships. CentCom has said it was in the Indian Ocean yesterday.

Image source, FlightRadar24

That announcement came after flight tracking picked up an American V-22 Osprey, external that emerged off the coast of Oman yesterday morning.

These aircraft - which tilt their wings to take off and land like helicopters - are known to operate from the carrier.

We’ve also used satellite imagery to track ships at sea in the past but so far have not been able to locate the USS Abraham Lincoln.

Merlyn Thomas, Shayan Sardarizadeh and Ghoncheh Habibiazad
BBC Verify and BBC Persian

Anti-government protesters in Iran have also been seen trying to evade the state's heavy surveillance infrastructure by disabling CCTV cameras, new videos show.

Footage we verified from Tehran shows one person in the capital climbing up a post and hitting a surveillance camera several times in an attempt to disable it.

A huge crowd of protesters can be seen on the ground and heard cheering as the camera is damaged.

Image source, X

For most people in Iran, there has been an almost-total internet blackout since 8 January.

But some have managed to briefly access the internet using methods such as SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet and virtual private networks (VPNs).

More videos are likely to emerge in the coming days, as the country's economy has struggled during the blackout.

Ben Chu
BBC Verify policy and analysis correspondent

The UK government is expected to announce later that it will provide additional relief for pubs affected by the forthcoming changes in business rates.

It announced a reform of the system in the November 2025 Budget, external, which it said would permanently reduce the business rates due from small retail, hospitality and leisure firms in England relative to other types of businesses.

However, in April all firms in the UK face a revaluation of their properties for the purpose of levying business rates, which happens every three years.

The temporary Covid-era business rates relief system for pubs is also being fully withdrawn in 2026-27.

The combination of these changes has left some - though not all - pubs facing a sizable increase in their business rates bill from April.

Image source, EPA

In the Budget, external, the government put a support package in place which it says will mean most firms’ bills will rise by no more than 15% this year, at a cost to the taxpayer of £4.3bn over the next three years.

The government is expected to increase the size of this taxpayer-funded relief package. We don’t yet know exactly which businesses - beyond pubs - will benefit, by how much and how long it will last.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK’s economic forecaster, has projected the government will get £33.6bn from business rates in 2026-27 rising to £41.9bn in 2029-30, external.

Business rates are the sixth largest revenue raiser for the government after income tax, National Insurance, VAT, corporation tax and council tax.

Farida Elsebai, Merlyn Thomas and Shayan Sardarizadeh
BBC Verify and BBC Arabic

The new videos emerging from Iran after some people were briefly able to access the internet have helped show the scale of the government's crackdown on protesters.

BBC Verify and BBC Persian have analysed videos showing hundreds of people protesting on a highway in west Tehran before multiple rounds of gunfire can be heard and people begin to scream.

Image source, X

Snipers have been recorded on the roofs of buildings in video from the north-eastern city of Mashhad, while in the south-eastern city of Kerman a video showed several armed men in military uniform walking down a road and firing their weapons continuously.

We have tracked the spread of the anti-government protests across 71 towns and cities in Iran, though the true number of areas where demonstrations have taken place is likely far higher.

Merlyn Thomas and Shayan Sardarizadeh
BBC Verify

BBC Verify and BBC Persian have been analysing new videos emerging from inside Iran that show bodies piled up inside a mortuary at Tehranpars hospital in east Tehran.

We verified the location of the hospital by matching its interior to other publicly available images and videos of the building, and counted at least 31 bodies in just one video. Another clip shows seven body bags laid on the ground outside the hospital's entrance.

BBC Verify has been tracking the spread of anti-government protests across Iran since they first erupted in late December, but the near total internet blackout imposed by the authorities has made it extremely difficult to document the scale of the state's deadly crackdown on protesters.

Some people have managed to access the internet in the last few days and upload new videos from 8 and 9 January, some ofthe deadliest night of protests in Iran so far. More than 6,000 people have been killed according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), though it says it is investigating 17,000 more deaths.

Joshua Cheetham
BBC Verify journalist

This morning we’re continuing to monitor a “dark fleet” oil tanker that’s been displaying unusual activity in the Mediterranean.

As we reported yesterday, experts have raised concerns about a ship called Chariot Tide.

As it approached the Strait of Gibraltar on 22 January, the 18-year-old ship began signalling “Not Under Command”. Four tug boats were seen sailing around it as it travelled east through the strait at low speed

On 24 January, tracking shows it made looping movements in the Mediterranean before continuing east at low speed.

Image source, MarineTraffic

It’s since been followed by a Spanish search-and-rescue vessel called Clara Campoamor.

Industry sources have told the BBC that efforts to organise a salvage operation are underway, which we’re working to confirm.

Shipping intelligence firm Windward says Chariot Tide is uninsured and falsely flagged to Mozambique, which would complicate any salvage effort.

Paul Brown
BBC Verify senior journalist

Image source, US Navy via Reuters

Our verification and open-source specialists are tracking the ongoing deployment of US military assets around the Gulf.

The build-up comes as speculation continues that the US will strike Iran in response to the government’s violent crackdown on street protests that broke out earlier this month.

The US military has now confirmed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group had arrived in the Indian Ocean.

We're watching satellite imagery closely for any signs of its exact location. It last broadcast its position on the morning of 20 January which showed it was in the South China Sea around 60 nautical miles north-west of Indonesia.

We're also looking for movements of military aircraft in the region and will keep you updated throughout the day.

Rob Corp
BBC Verify Live editor

Welcome to our live page where we bring you the latest on the stories our team of verification specialists, fact-checkers and data journalists are working on through the day.

BBC Verify is looking into the US military build-up in the Gulf after the American military’s Central Command confirmed the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln had arrived in the region. Our team is checking what can be seen on aircraft and ship tracking as well as satellite imagery.

We reported on BBC Verify Live yesterday about the erratic course of a so-called “dark fleet” oil tanker in the Mediterranean. We’re using ship-tracking to find the latest location of the ship - Chariot Tide - which previously broadcast it was having mechanical trouble.

Our fact-check team is unpacking the UK government’s announcement on capping ground rents at £250 and what it means for leaseholders.

More on those stories to come throughout the day.