Dalilai biyar da ke hana kawo ƙarshen yaƙin basasa a Syria

Dakarun tawaye sun ƙaddamar da wani hari mafi girma cikin shekaru kan gwamnatin Syria, bayan an zaci dakarun gwamnatin sun gama da su.

Harin bazata ƙarƙashin jagorancin Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), ƙungiyar da ke iƙirarin jihadi, ya sa sun ƙwace iko da birnin Aleppo na biyu mafi girma a ƙasar, kuma suka tilasta wa dakarun gwamnati ficewa daga birnin.

Kazalika, harin ya jawo martani daga jiragen yaƙin Rasha a Aleppo karon farko tun 2016.

Kusan shekara 14 bayan fara yaƙin, ana fargabar wannan farmakin na yanzu zai tsawaita yaƙin.

Tun daga 2018, ƙasar ta rabe uku sakamakon yaƙin basasa, inda gwamnatin Assad, da 'yan tawayen Ƙurdawa, da kuma 'yan bindiga masu iƙirarin jihadi ke iko da sassan ƙasar.

Ga wasu dalilai biyar da ke jawo wahala wajen kawo ƙarshen yaƙin na Syria.

Muradan ƙasashen waje

Syria ta zama wata cibiyar da manyan ƙasashen duniya ke neman cimma muradai da sunan taimaka wa abokansu.

Gungun 'yan adawar da ke samun goyon bayan ƙasashen Turkiyya, da Saudiyya, da Amurka, su ne ke ƙalubalantar Assad. Sai dai kuma, gwamnatinsa ta ci gaba da rayuwa ne sakamakon taimakon da yake samu daga Rasha, da kuma Iran.

Yayin da yaƙin ke ta'azzara, ƙungiyoyin 'yan bindiga masu iƙirarin jihadi kamar Islamic State (IS) da al-Qaeda sun shiga yaƙin. Sai Ƙurdawan Syria da ke neman ɓallewa daga ƙasar, su ma sun shiga. Rasha da Iran ma na taka rawa wajen taimaka wa Assad, yayin da Turkiyya ke tallafa wa 'yan tawaye da zimmar kare iyakokinta ta ɓangaren arewaci.

A 2020, Rasha da Turkiyya sun ƙulla yarjejeniya a Idlib inda aka kafa wata tawagar sintiri a wani yanki. Duk da cewa an rage faɗace-faɗace a wurin amma gwamnatin Syria ba ta tabbatar da ikonta ba gaba ɗaya.

Yanzu kuma, 'yan tawaye na amfani da damar da suka samu ne saboda yadda hankalin ƙawayen gwamnatin Syria ya karkata a wasu yaƙe-yaƙen daban.

"Gwamnatin Assad ta yi ta ƙoƙarin kare yankunanta bisa dogaro da taimakon ƙasashen waje. Naƙasun da Hezbollah ta samu sakamakon hare-haren da Isra'ila ke kai mata, da kuma matsalolin da Rasha ke fuskanta saboda yaƙin Ukraine, ya bar gwamnatin Assad cikin kaɗaici kuma abin da ya sa mayaƙan HTS kenan suka kai harin na bazata," in ji Dr Simon Frankel Pratt, babban malamin kimiyyar siyasa a Jami'ar Melbourne.

Karyewar tattalin arziki

Shekarun da aka shafe ana yaƙi a Syria ya raunata tattalin arzikinta, da lalata abubuwan more rayuwa, da ta'azzara halin da mutane ke ciki.

Hakan ya haifar da matsaloli ga rayuwar al'ummar, waɗanda bau wani tsari na gyara su.

Kusan sama da 'yan Syria miliyan 22 kafin fara yaƙin an raba su da muhallansu, a cewar Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya. Daga cikin miliyan 6.8 da ke gudun hijira a cikin ƙasar, sama da miliyan biyu na zaune ne a sansanonin 'yan gudun hijira.

Ƙarin wasu miliyan shida sun fice daga ƙasar, akasari zuwa Lebanon, da Jordan, da Turkiyya waɗanda ke karɓar jimillar mutum miliyan 5.3.

"Har yanzu lamarin babu tabbas," a cewar Emmanuel Isch na World Vision Syria.

"Faɗan na faruwa a yankuna daban-daban kuma fargabarmu ita ce akwai 'yan gudun hijira miliyan biyu da ke zaune a arewacin Syria, kuma sansanonin 'yan gudun hijirar sun cika ba za su iya karbar sabbi ba."

Zuwa 2023, kafin fara yaƙin na yanzu, 'yan Syria miliyan 15.3 na buƙatar tallafi, wasu miliyan 12 na fuskantar yunwa. Girgizar ƙasa a 2023 da aka yi a Gaziantep na Turkiyya ta ƙara lalata yanayin, inda ta kashe sama da mutum 5,900 a Syria kuma ta shafi miliyan 8.8.

Buƙatar tattalin arzikin da ke tattare da yaƙin, ciki har da yunƙurin ƙwace iko da wuraren ƙasar da ke da man fetur da hanyoyin kasuwancinta na cikin abubuwan da suke ƙata ta'azzara rikicin, idan kuma aka haɗa su da ƙuncin rayuwar da mutanen ƙasar suka shiga, za a ga dalilin da ke ƙara rura wutar rikici da zaman tankiya a cikin ƙasar.

Mulkin kama-karya

Dogaron da gwamnatin Assad ta yi kan murƙushe 'yan adawa na ƙara yawan masu adawa da ita da kuma tsawaita yaƙin.

A 2021, wani rahoton Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ya tattara zalincin da aka aikata ciki har da harin makamai masu guba, da bamabamai da ake jefawa kan gidajen al'umma, da yi wa wurare ƙawanya har yunwa ta kashe mutane, da kuma hana shigar da kayan agaji ga mutane da gwamnatin ta aikata.

"Mulkin kama-karya na cikin manya abubuwa a yaƙin nan," kamar yadda Julien Barnes-Dacey, shugaba a shirin cibiyar European Council on Foreign Relations, ya bayyana.

Zuwa 2022, MDD ta yi ƙiyasin cewa fararen hula 306,887 ne suka mutu saboda yaƙi, ƙarin wasu dubbai na fama da yunwa, da cutuka, da rashin kulawar likitoci.

Burcu Ozcelik, babban mai bincike a cibiyar Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute ta Birtaniya, ya ƙara da cewa: "Yanzu gwamnatin ta mayar da hankali kaf kan tsira da mulkinta ba shugabanci na gari ba."

Rababbiyar al'umma

"Yayin da rarrabuwar kai a siyasance ke kan gaba a wannan yaƙi, a bayyane take cewa ƙabilanci ya daɗe yana tasiri," in ji Mista Barnes-Dacey.

A gabashi, yankunan da Kurdawa suka fi yawa na ƙarƙashin ikon gwamnati tun daga farkon yaƙin. A gefe guda kuma, ɓurɓushin ƙungiyar IS na nan.

A arewa maso yamma, Idlib ta zama tungar 'yan tawaye, waɗanda ƙungiyar HTS ke jagoranta.

Matsalar ta ƙara ta'azzara ne saboda faɗan cikin gida tsakanin ƙungiyoyin 'yan tawayen. Wasu da ke samun goyon bayan Turkiyya sun kara da Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), wadda ke da mayaƙa mafi yawansu Kurdawa wadda kuma Turkiyya ke kallo a matsayin 'yan ta'adda.

Gazawar difilomasiyya tsakanin ƙasashe

Duk yunƙurin samar da yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya, ciki har da wanda Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ta jagoranta, babu wanda ya haifar da ɗa mai ido na a-zo-a-gani, saboda bambancin ra'ayi a tsakanin waɗanda abun ya shafa. Abubuwan da suka fi kawo tsaiko sun haɗa da yadda kowane ɓangare ke ƙeƙeshe ƙasa sai an yi yadda yake so, wanda hakan ya sa fahimtar juna zai yi wahala, inji masana.

"Har yanzu babu abin da ya sauya: gwamnatin Assad ta ƙi rage buƙatunta, su kuma ƴantawayen suna cigaba da yaƙi domin hamɓarar da shi," in ji Barnes-Dacey.

Frankel-Pratt ya ƙara da cewa,: “Wasu ƙasashen da ke yankin suna cikin wani irin hali saboda ba su san yaya yaƙin zai ƙare ba.

"Ƙasashen da suke cikin irin wannan yanayi suna bi da sannu wajen saka baki a yaƙin. Misali, akwai wata yarjejeniyar wucin-gadi da aka shiga tsakanin Iran da ƙasar domin zanwar da zaman lafiya, sannan Iran ta je ƙasashen turai da Amurka domin tabbatar da yaƙin bai faɗaɗa ba."

Wasu masana sun ƙara da cewa akwai rashin tabbas na tsare-tsaren gwamnatin Amurka a zamanin Trump na cikin abubuwan da suka kawo tsaiko. Misali, an ce Turkiyya ta goyi bayan ƴantawayen domin ta nuna ƙwanji gab da rantsar da Trump.

Sannan kuma har yanzu tsare-tsaren Trump a game da yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya ba su fito fili ba, a cewar Barnes-Dacey.