Juyin mulkin Guinea-Bissau: Gaske ne ko wasan kwaikwayo?

Juyin mulki ba sabon abu ba ne a Guinea-Bissau. Wannan ƙasar ta yammacin Afirka ta fuskanci akalla yunƙurin juyin mulki – wadanda suka yi nasara da wadanda ba su yi nasara ba sau tara tun bayan samun 'yancin kai daga Portugal a 1974.

Amma lokacin da hafsoshin soja suka sanar cewa sun ƙwace mulkin ƙasar a ranar Larabar da ta gabata, wasu masana da 'yan siyasa sun nuna shakku.

Duk abubuwan da aka saba gani idan an yi juyin mulki da suka haɗa da jin harbe-harbe a kusa da fadar shugaban ƙasa da kama shugaban ƙasa Umaro Sissoco Embaló da kuma sojoji da suka gabatar da jawabi a gidan talabijin na ƙasa.

Sai dai wasu al'amuran da suka faru a lokacin sun jawo tambayoyi, inda Firaministan Senegal, Ousmane Sonko, da tsohon shugaban Najeriya Goodluck Jonathan suka shiga jerin masu zargin cewa Embaló ne ya kitsa lamarin.

Abin da ya ƙara rikitar da al'amura shi ne: sojojin sun shaida wa BBC cewa sun karɓe ikon ƙasar, amma sun yi Allah-wadai da kiran lamarin "juyin mulki".

Shugabannin rundunar sojojin sun ce abin da suka yi shi ne daƙile wani yunƙuri da wasu 'yan siyasa waɗanda suke da goyon bayan wani sanannen ɗan hannu da miyagun ƙwayoyi suka kitsa domin tada hankalin ƙasar, wadda ta shahara a matsayin cibiyar safarar miyagun ƙwayoyi.

Me ya faru kafin juyin mulkin?

Kwana uku kacal kafin kifar da gwamnati da sojoji suka yi, 'yan ƙasar Guinea-Bissau sun kaɗa ƙuri'a a zaɓen shugaban ƙasa.

Embaló, mai shekara 53, yana neman wa'adi na biyu, kuma babban abokin takararsa shi ne Fernando Dias da Costa.

Dias ya samu goyon bayan tsohon Firaminista Domingos Pereira, wanda a farko shi ne ya kamata ya tsaya takarar shugaban ƙasa a madadin babbar jam'iyyar adawa ta PAIGC.

Sai dai an hana Pereira tsayawa takara bayan hukumar zaɓe ta ce ya mika takardunsa da a ƙurarran lokaci.

Ana sa ran fitar da sakamakon zaɓen ne a ranar Alhamis, wato rana guda bayan kifar da gwamnatin ya faru.

Me ya faru a ranar juyin mulkin?

Bayan an ji harbe-harbe a babban birnin Bissau, Embaló ya shaida wa gidan labarai na Faransa, Jeune Afrique, cewa wasu masu sanye da kaya na soja sun kama shi a fadar shugaban ƙasa.

Daga bisani, hafsoshin soja suka bayyana a gidan talabijin na gwamnati, inda suka sanar da cewa sun hamɓarar da shugaban kasa domin hana wani shirin da zai lalata kwanciyar hankali a kasar.

Sojojin sun dakatar da tsarin zaɓe kuma sun hana a fitar da sakamakon zaɓen.

A cikin wani gajeran kiran waya, Embaló ya shaida wa France 24 cewa: "An hamɓarar da ni."

Wasu mutane ma an kama su, ciki har da Pereira, ministan cikin gida Botché Candé, da Babban Hafsan Soja Janar Biague Na N'tan.

Hedkwatar hukumar zaɓe ta fuskanci hari, kuma wani jami'i ya bayyana cewa wasu maza masu makamai da suka rufe fuskokinsu sun lalata takardu da babban kwamfutar da ke adana sakamakon zaɓe wanda hakan ya sa ba za a iya fitar da sakamakon zaɓen ba.

Me ya sa ake nuna shakku a juyin mulkin?

Jam'iyyun adawa da ƙungiyoyin farar hula, da 'yan siyasa daga wasu ƙasashen Yammacin Afirka sun nuna shakku kan sanarwar ƙwace iko da ƙasar da sojoji suka yi.

Bayan an sake shi daga hannun sojoji a ranar Alhamis, Embaló ya tashi zuwa kasar Senegal a jirgin sojan Senegal – wani abu da jami'in PAIGC, Flávio Baticã Ferreira, ya ga abin zargi ne.

Ferreira, wanda a baya memba ne a majalisar dokoki, ya shaida wa BBC cewa: "Ta yadda shugaban ya bar Guinea-Bissau, raka shi da aka yi kamar mai yawon buɗe ido tare da iyalinsa da kayansa, babu wani ƙalubale ko cikas, duk wannan na nuna cewa ba juyin mulki ba ne, domin duk mun san yadda juyin mulki yake."

A jerin juyin mulkin da aka samu a Afirka cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata, babu wani shugaban da aka hamɓarar kuma aka bar shi ya bar kasar cikin sauri kamar yadda aka yi wa Embaló.

Sai dai wasu masana sun bayyana wa BBC cewa sojojin Guinea-Bissau na iya ganin barin Embaló ya bar ƙasar da wuri zai sa sauyin mulki ya gudana cikin sauki.

Tsohon shugaban Najeriya, Goodluck Jonathan, shima ya nuna shakku kan juyin mulkin, inda ya ce ba a saba ba a bar shugaban kasa ya yi magana da kafofin watsa labarai na ƙasashen waje ta waya yayin da ake juyin mulki.

"Abin da ya faru a Guinea-Bissau ba juyin mulki bane na haƙiƙa, za a iya cewa juyin mulki ne tsarare," in ji Jonathan, wanda yake cikin tawagar da ke sa ido kan zaɓe a Guinea-Bissau, ga 'yan jarida.

Jonathan yana da gaskiya; ba a saba samun shugabannin da aka hamɓarar ba suna yin mu'amala da ƙasashen duniya ba yayin da suke tsare.

Amma akwai wasu lokuta na musamman, misali tsohon shugaban Gabon da yayi bidiyo yana kira ga "abokansa a ko'ina cikin duniya" don neman goyon baya bayan an hamɓarar da shi a 2023.

Haka kuma nadin Janar Horta N'Tam a matsayin sabon shugaban sojojin Guinea-Bissau ya janyo shakku, saboda an ɗauke shi a matsayin abokin Embaló na kusa.

Har yanzu Embaló bai mayar da martani kan zargin cewa shi ne ya tsara juyin mulkin ba.

Me zai sa wani ya tsara juyin mulki na ƙarya?

Masu suka sun daɗe suna zargin Embaló da tsara juyin mulki domin murƙushe masu adawa, zargin da tsohon shugaban ya musanta.

Ya ce ya tsira daga yunƙurin juyin mulki sau uku. A watan Disambar 2023, bayan wani yunƙurin shirin juyin mulki, Embaló ya rushe majalisar dokoki da jam'iyyun adawa suka fi rinjaye a ciki. Tun daga lokacin, Guinea-Bissau ba ta da majalisa mai aiki.

Wasu ƙungiyoyin farar hula sun zargi Embaló da tsara juyin mulkin makon da ya gabata domin hana fitar da sakamakon zaɓen da zai iya zama cewa ba shi ne ya lashe zaɓen ba.

Masanin siyasa Ryan Cummings ya ce ayyukan shugaban da ya gabata kamar ɗaga zaɓe da shekara ɗaya sun kara tsananta irin wannan shakku.

Duk da haka, Cummings ya ce akwai "yuwuwar cewa da gaske ne sojoji sun yi aiki da kansu domin hana rikicin siyasa, yayin da Embaló da Dias ke ikirarin cewa sun lashe zaɓe.

Beverly Ochieng, mai nazari kan Afirka ta Yamma a kamfanin tattara bayanan sirri na Control Risks, ita ma ta amince da cewa akwai shakku game da juyin mulkin. Sai dai ta ce tashin hankali a tsakanin manyan 'yan siyasa, haɗe da hukuncin hana Pereira tsayawa takarar shugaban kasa, "yana da yuwuwar ya taimaka wajen shiga tsakanin na sojoji."

Wa ke jagorantar Guinea-Bissau yanzu?

An rantsar da janar N'Tam, wanda a baya shi ne babban hafsan soja a matsayin shugaban kasar kuma ana sa ran zai jagoranci ƙasar na tsawon shekara guda a matsayin shugaban wucin gadi.

Janar N'Tam ya kuma naɗa sabon gwamnati, wacce ta kunshi ministoci 23 da sakatarori biyar na jihohi.

A ɗaya bangaren kuma, Embaló ya bar Senegal zuwa Congo-Brazzaville. A cewar wasu majiyoyi daga Senegal da Guinea-Bissau, ya bar Senegal ne saboda ransa ya bacin rai bayan firaministan Senegal ya kira juyin mulkin da "wasan kwaikwayo ko abin da aka shirya".

Dias, wanda ya ce ya tsira daga yunƙurin kama shi a ranar juyin mulkin, an ba shi mafaka a Najeriya.

Martanin al'ummar Guinea-Bissau?

A ranar Asabar, dubban masu zanga-zanga sun fita kan tituna, suna neman a saki Pereira. Haka kuma, sun buƙaci hukumomi da su fitar da sakamakon zaɓe.

Bugu da ƙari, kungiyoyi uku na farar hula sun yi kira ga yajin aikin gama gari da kuma kamfen na rashin biyayya ga gwamnati domin dawo da "gaskiyar zaɓe."

Sai dai martanin mutane ya bambanta, yayin da wasu mazauna suka yaba sojoji tare da fatan za a samu sauyin mulki cikin tsari.

"Ba na adawa da tsarin soja matukar suna inganta yanayin rayuwa a kasar," in ji Suncar Gassama ga BBC.

Tsohon memba majalisar dokoki, Ferreira, ya bayyana yanayin kasar a matsayin "mai cike da tashin hankali."

"Babu wanda ya san abin da makomar Guinea-Bissau ke dauke da shi," in ji shi.