Ukraine ishobora gutsindwa mu 2024, ng’ibi ibishobora gushika

Ubu uruhigi rwahindukiye mu gihe Uburusiya buriko burarundarunda ingabo zabwo, mu gihe Ukraine nayo itabona neza aho zitegura kumenera.

"Imwe mu ngorane Ukraine ifise," nk’uko bivugwa na Dr Jack Watling, umushakashatsi mu bijanye n’intambara yo hasi ku kigo c’abahinga Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) c’ahitwa Whitehall mu Bwongereza, "ni uko Abarusiya bafise ubushobozi bwo kwihitiramwo aho bashaka kurungika ingabo.

"Ni urwasiro rurerure cane ingabo za Ukraine zikeneye gukingira".

Ibi navyo ntavyo zishoboye.

Dr Watling ati: "Igisirikare ca Ukraine kizotakaza ubutaka. Ikibazo ni ukumenya ingene buzoba bungana hamwe n’uturere dutuwemwo n’abanyagihugu tuzogirwako ingaruka".

Birashobora cane ko ibiro bikuru vy’igisirikare c’Uburusiya bitarafata ingingo ku turere bazoshiramwo inguvu nyinshi. Ariko birashoboka ko bahitamwo inzira zitatu muri nyinshi bafise.

Uwahoze ari umukuru w’ingabo mu Bwongereza agabisha ko Ukraine ishobora kuneshwa n’Uburusiya muri uno mwaka wa 2024.

Jenerali Sir Richard Barrons yabwiye BBC ko hari “ivyago bikomeye” vy’uko Ukraine ishobora gutakaza ino ntambara muri uno mwaka.

Imvo atanga " ni uko bishobora gushika Ukraine igashika aho yumva ko idashobora gutsinda".

"Kandi birinze bishika aho, kubera iki abantu borondera kuja kurwana babandanya bapfa, kugira bakingire ibidashoboka?"

Ukraine ntirashika ng’aha.

Ariko ingabo zayo zirakehaniwe bikomeye n’amasasu, ingabo n’uburyo bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere. Igitero cayo camamajwe cane mu mwaka uheze carananiwe no kwirukana Abarusiya ku butaka bari barigaruriye, ubu Moscou ikaba iriko itegura igitero ruhasha mu ci.

None ibi bishobora kugenda gute, intego zishobora kuba ari nyabaki?

Jenerali Barrons ati: "Uburyo igitero c’Uburusiya cimirije kizoba kimeze buratomoye neza.

"Turiko turabona ingene Uburusiya bukubita bukuzako ku rubuga rw’intambara, mu gukoreha uburyo busumba incuro zitanu ubwa Ukraine mu birwanisho, ibisasu hamwe n’ingabo zitewe intege n’ibirwanisho bishasha ziriko zirakoresha".

Muri ibi harimwo ibibombe rutura vyo mu gihe c’intwaro y’Abasoviyeti vyasubiwemwo gushasha ubu bikaba biriko biriha inkumbi mu ngabo za Ukraine.

Jenerali Barrons ati: "Turiteze igihe kimwe mu ci riza igitero rutura c’Uburusiya, kizoba gifise intumbero yo gutera intambwe no kumena ibirindiro vy’ingabo za Ukraine.

"Ari nka hamwe ibi vyoba, dufise kwinjira mu kaga k’aho Abarusiya bazomenera mu birindiro vya Ukraine bagatera baja mu turere aho ingabo za Ukraine zitazoba zigishoboye kubahagarika”.

Ariko ni hehe?

Mu mwaka uheze, Abarusiya bari bazi neza aho ingabo za Ukraine zariko zitegura kumenera – kuva amaja muri Zaporizhzhia zitera zimanuka ku Kiyaga Azov. Baciye bitegura neza kandi baratesha ingabo za Ukraine.

Kharkiv

"Kharkiv," nk’uko Dr Watling abivuga "nta gukekeranya irahagorewe".

Nk’igisagara kigira kabiri ca Ukraine, kiri hafi y’urubibe n’Uburusiya, Kharkiv iri mu menyo y’Uburusiya.

Buri musi icucagirwa ibisasu vya misire vy’Uburusiya, kandi Ukraine nta buryo bukwiye ifise bwo kurungikayo kugira izibire ibitero vya za ndege zitagira abadereva (amadrone) n’ibisasu vya misire biterwa muri ako karere.

Jenerali Barrons yongerako ati: "Ndibaza ko igitero c’uno mwaka kizoba ari ico kumenera muri Donbas nk’itego ya mbere, kandi ijisho ryabo rizoba riri kuri Kharkiv iri nko ku birometero 29 uvuye ku rubibe rw'Uburusiya, kuyifata ikaba ari intego nyamukuru".

Ubwo ari nka hamwe Uburusiya bwokwigarurira Kharkiv, Ukraine yobandanya ibaho? Ego, nk’uko abahinga babivuga, ariko yoba ari amahano atagira uko angana, haba mu bijanye n’intege zabo zo kurwana canke ku butunzi.

Donbas

Aka karere ko mu buseruko bwa Ukraine kazwi muri rusangi nka Donbas kari mu ntambara kuva mu 2014, igihe inyeshamba zishigikiwe n’Uburusiya zirondera kwiyonkora zatangaza ko zikukiye.

Mu 2022 Uburusiya bwarihagiye intara zibiri za Donbas, Donetsk na Luhansk. Aha niho habera intambara hafi yose yo ku butaka mu mezi 18 aheze.

Mu buryo butabonwa kumwe, Ukraine yakoresheje inguvu nyinshi cane, haba mu buryo bw’abarwanyi no mu bw’ibikoresho, irondera kugumana igisagara ca Bakhmut hanyuma na Avdiivka. Yahavuye itakaza ibi bisagara vyompi, inatakaza na zimwe mu ngabo zayo zimenyereye intambara.

Ukraine ivuga ko yishe ingabo nyinshi z’Uburusiya mu ntambara yo kwivuna. Ibi ni vyo, aho mbere urubuga rw’intambara muri utu turere rwataziriwe “ibagiro”.

Ariko Uburusiya bufise ingabo nyinshi cane burungika kurwana, mu gihe Ukraine yo atazo ifise.

Umukuru w’ingabo za Amerika i Bulaya, Jenerali Christopher Cavoli, agabisha ko ari nka hamwe Amerika itorungika ibirwanisho bindi vyinshi n’amasasu menshi muri Ukraine, ingabo zayo zizorengerwa ku rwasiro incuro icumi.

Ubwinshi ni kirumara. Ubuhinga bw’ingabo z’Uburusiya, ubuyobozi n’ibikoresho, birashobora kuba biri musi y’ivya Ukraine, ariko akarusho ni uko bufise ubwinshi bw’ingabo n’ibikoresho, cane cane vya muzinga, ku buryo n’aho ata kindi kinti bwotegura gukora muri uno mwaka, intego yabwo isanzwe yoba ari ukubandanya bwigiza inyuma ingabo za Ukraine buzisunikira amaja mu burengero, bwigarurira uturere n’utundi.

Zaporizhzhia

Aka karere, ni akandi kipfuzwa cane n’Uburusiya.

Iki gisagara ca Ukraine cari gitunze abanyagihugu barenga 700.000 mu gihe c’amahoro, kiri hafi yurwasiro rw’Uburusiya.

Ni igisagara kandi kiraje ishinga cane Uburusiya kuko ni umugwa mukuru w’intara bisangiye izina, yihagiwe n’Uburusiya, ariko ingorane ikaba ari uko kicidegemvya mu minwe ya Ukraine.

Ariko ibirindiro rutura vyo guhangana n’umwansi Uburusiya bwubatse mu bumanuko bwa Zaporizhzhia mu mwaka uheze, igihe bwitegurira igitero ca Ukraine, bishobora kutorohereza ingabo zabwo mu gihe zorondera gutera zija imbere.

Ibi birindiro bizwi nk’umurongo wa Surovikin, bigizwe n’imikobeko itatu yo kuzibira umwansi, niho hantu ha mbere kw’isi mu bunini no mu bwinshi bw’isisau bitegwa mu kuzimu (mines) vyahashizwe. Uburusiya bushobora gusambura igice kimwe cavyo, ariko bushorora guhinyurwa mu myiteguro bwoba buriko burakora.

Intego nyamukuru y’Uburusiya ishobora mbere kutaba iyo kwigarurira ubutaka. Ishobora kuba gusa iyo gukura banyagihugu ba Ukraine ishaka ryo kurwana, maze incuti zayo z’Uburengero zigahava zikabona ko ino ntambara ari uguta umwanya.

Dr Jack Watling yemeza ko intego y’Uburusiya ari "ukugerageza gutera agatima k’umwiheburo".

Hagati aho, abona ko iki gitero c’Uburusiya kitazotuma intambara irangira, uko vyogenda kwose ku mpande zompi.

Eka na Jenerali Barrons na we nyene ntabona ko, nubwo ibintu bimeze nabi ku ruhande rw’ingabo za Ukraine, atari ngombwa ko Uburusiya butera intambwe yobutuma butsinda intambara burundu.

Ati: "Nibaza ko ikintu kiboneka ko gishoboka ari uko Uburusiya bushobora kuzoba bwateye intambwe, ariko ntibuzoba bwashoboye gutsinda.

"Nta ngabo buzoba bufise zizoshobora kumenera ku ruzi [Dnipro]... ariko Uburusiya buzoba bwagize akarusho muri ino intambara".

Ikizwi ni kimwe: Perezida Vladimir Putin w’Uburusiya ntarota ahagarika intambara yiwe kuri Ukraine.

Ni nk’umukinyi w’ikarata arondera gukoresha iturufu zose kugira atsinde. Arindiriye ko Uburengero buteba bukaruhishwa no guha Ukraine uburyo bukwiye bwo kwivuna.

Nubwo amakoraniro ya OTAN/NATO, amahuriro yose n’amajambo ashikirizwa aryoshe, hari amahirwe menshi ko Putin ashobora kuba afise ukuri.