Ingene ibihugu vy'Uburengero bifasha Uburusiya kuronka amahera bukoresha mu ntambara yabwo muri Ukraine

Uburusiya bubandanya bwinjiza amamiriyaridi n'amamiriyaridi bukura mu bitoro bushorera mu Burengero, nk'uko ibiharuro bivyerekana, ibi bikabufasha kuronka amafaranga bukoresha mu ntambara yabwo muri Ukraine, ubu iri mu mwaka ugira kane.

Kuva butanguye igitero cabwo muri Ruhuhuma (2) 2022, Uburusiya bumaze kwegeranya amafaranga bukura mu gitoro bushora gusumba imfashanyo asumba incuro zirenga zitatu ayo Ukraine imaze kuronswa n 'incuti zayo.

Ibiharuro vyihwejwe na BBC vyerekana ko incuti za Ukraine zo mu Burengero zimaze kuriha Uburusiya amafaranga y'igitoro cabwo asumba kure n'iyo imfashanyo zimaze guha Ukraine.

Abaharanira amahoro bavuga ko amareta y'ibihugu vya Bulaya n'uburaruko bwa Amerika bikeneye gukora gusumba kugira ngo bibuze igitoro na gaze kubandanya bikokeza intambara y'Uburusiya na Ukraine.

None Uburusiya bwoba bwinjiza amafaranga angana gute?

Amahera ava mu kugurisha igitoro na gaze afise uruhara rudasanzwe kugira ngo Uburusiya bushobore kubandanya intambara yabwo.

Igitoro na gaze vyinjiza hafi ica gatatu c'amafaranga reta y'Uburusiya yinjiza, bikaba kandi birenga 60% vy'ibidandazwa bushorera hanze.

Inyuma y'aho butanguriye intambara yabwo muri Ruhuhuma 2022, incuti za Ukraine zaciye zifata ibihano ku gitoro na gaze vy'Uburusiya. Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n'Ubwongereza vyarahagaritse kugura igitoro na gaze vyagurira mu Burusiya, mu gihe Ubumwe bwa Bulaya nabwo bwabujije igitoro kitarahingurwa kwinjira mu bihugu vyabwo giciye mu mazi, ariko atari gaze.

Nubwo biri uko, gushika ku wa 29 Rusama (5), Uburusiya bwari bumaze kwegeranya imiriyaridi zirenga 883 z'ama-euro (amafaranga y'amanyabulaya) bukura mu rudandazwa rw'igitoro na gaze kuva butanguye intambara yabwo, harimwo imiriyaridi 228 z'ama-euro yavuye mu bihugu vyabufatiye ibi bihano, nk'uko biri mu cegeranyo c'ikigo gikora ubushakashatsi ku masoko ntanganguvu, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Igice kinini c'aya mafaranga Uburusiya bwinjiza, ikingana n'imiriyaridi 209 z'ama-euro, cavuye mu bihugu vy'Ubumwe bwa Bulaya.

Ibi bihugu vy'Ubumwe bwa Bulaya vyabandanije vyinjiza gaze iva mu Burusiya inyuze mu miringoti ica mu butaka bwa Ukraine gushika aho iki gihugu kiyihagarikiye muri Nzero (1) 2025, gusa Uburusiya buracacisha igitoro cabwo kitarahingurwa mu miringoti ica muri Hongrie na Slovakia.

Uburusiya buracarungika gaze yabwo i Bulaya ku rugero rugenda rwiyongera buyicishije mu miringoti ica muri Turukiya: ibiharuro vya CREA vyerekana ko iyo gaze yageze ku rugero rwa 26.77% mu kwa mbere no mu kwa kabiri 2025 ugereranije n'igihe nk'ico co mu 2024.

Hongrie na Slovakia biracaronka kandi gaze y'Uburusiya icishwa mu miringoti ica muri Turukiya.

Naho Uburengero bugira utu utwigoro, amafaranga Uburusiya bwakuye mu masoko ntanganguvu kama yo mu kuzimu (combustibles fossiles) mu 2024 yagabanutseko ibice 5% gusa ugereranije n'umwaka wa 2023, mu gihe ibidandazwa bushora hanze na vyo vyagabanutseko 6%, nk'uko bivugwa na CREA.

Umwaka uheze kandi, amafaranga Uburusiya bwinjije mu gitoro kitarahingurwa bwashoye hanze yiyongereyeko 6%, be n'amafaranga ava muri gaze ishorwa hanze yiyongerako 9% ku mwaka ku mwaka.

Ibiharuro vy'Uburusiya vyerekana ko gaze ishorwa hanze yiyongereye ku rugero rwa 20% mu 2024, aho gaze y'amazi (gaz naturel liquéfié /liquefied natural gas, LNG) yashitse ku rugero rutari bwigere rugerwako. Ubu, igice c'iyi gaze y'amazi Uburusiya bushora hanze ija mu bihugu vy'Ubumwe bwa Bulaya, nk'uko CREA ibivuga.

Uwujejwe imigenderanire mpuzamakungu mu Bumwe bwa Bulaya, Kaja Kallas, avuga ko uru runani rutafashe "ibihano ruhasha" ku gitoro na gaze vy'Uburusiya kubera bimwe mu bihugu vyarwo bitinya ko ibintu bishobora kuyangara muri iyi ntambara kandi ko "bibigura ku giciro kitavuna".

Iyi gaze y'amazi igurirwa mu Burusiya ntirabwa n'ibihano 17 Ubumwe bwa Bulaya buherutse gufatira Uburusiya, ariko gusa bwaremeje urupapuro rw'inzira ruzotuma gushika mu 2027 ata gaze izoba ikigurirwa mu Burusiya.

Ibiharuro vyerekana ko amahera Uburusiya bukura mu gitoro na gaze yamye asumba cane imfashanyo Ukraine ihabwa n'incuti zayo.

Inyota y'igitoro ishobora kubangamira utwigoro tw'Uburengero two kugabanya ubushobozi bw'Uburusiya bwo kubandanya intambara yabwo.

Mai Rosner wo mw'ishirahamwe Global Witness, avuga ko benshi mu bategetsi b'Uburengero bafise ubwoba ko ari nka hamwe boramuka bahagaritse kugurira igitoro mu Burusiya vyotuma ibiciro mu bijanye n'amasoko ntanganguvu biduga.

Uyu mupfasoni yabwiye BBC ati: "Ibihugu vyinshi ntivyipfuza kubangamira ubushobozi bw'Uburusiya bwo kwimbura no kugurisha igitoro. Hari ubwoba bwinshi cane ku bijanye n'ingaruka vyogira ku biciro vy'amasoko ntanganguvu kw'isi yose".

'Amasosiyete asukura igitoro mu binywabi'

Hejuru y'ikigurishwa mu buryo butaziguye, kimwe mu gitoro Uburusiya bushora hanze cisanga cashitse mu bihugu vy'Uburengero kimaze gusukurirwa mu bindi bihugu mu nzira z'ibinywabi. Rimwe na rimwe kivangwa n'ikindi kitarahingurwa kiva mu bindi bihugu.

CREA ivuga ko yatoye amasosiyete atatu akorera mu binywabi muri Turukiya n'ayandi atatu nyene mu Buhindi asukura igitoro c'Uburusiya kitarahingurwa agaca agishora mu bihugu vyafatiye ibihano Uburusiya.

Ivuga ko aya masosiyete yakoresheje igitoro c'Uburusiya gifise agaciro k'imiriyaridi 6.1 z'ama-euro kugira ngo bagihinguremwo ivyo bashora mu bihugu vyafashe ibihano.

Umushikiranganji w'Ubuhindi ajejwe igitoro aranegura iki cegeranyo ca CREA avuga ko ari "icegeranyo c'ububeshi gifise intego yo gusibanganya ishusho y'Ubuhindi".

Vaibhav Raghunandan, umuhinga muri CREA, agira ati: "[Ibi bihugu] birazi ko ibihugu vyafashe ibihano vyiteguriye kwemera ivyo. Aka ni agahaze. Amategeko arabirekura. Bose barabizi, ariko nta n'umwe ariko arakora ikiboneka kugira ngo babirwanye mu buryo buboneka".

Abaharanira amahoro hamwe n'abahinga bavuga ko ibihugu vy'uburengero bifise ibikoresho n'uburyo bwo guhagarika amahera y'igitoro yinjira mu bigega vya Kremlin.

Nk'uko bivugwa na Vladimir Milov yahoze ari icegera c'umushikiranganji w'Uburusiya ajejwe amasoko ntanganguvu, ubu akaba aterekwa na gato Vladimir Putin, ibihano vyafatiwe Ubuguriya ku gitoro bikwiye gushirwa mu ngiro uko bikwiye - cane cane ibijanye n'igiciro ntarengwa c'igitoro cashinzwe n'umurwi w'igihugu vya G7 Milov avuga ko "kitariko kirakora".

Hagati aho, afise ubwoba ko impinduka za reta ya Amerika zatangujwe na Perezida Donald Trump zizobera intambamyi ibisata vy'igihugu, nk'ubushikiranganji bujejwe ikigega be n'ishami rya rigenzura umutungo mvamahanga (Office of Foreign Assets Control,OFAC), ibisata nyamukuru mu gushira mu ngiro ibihano vyafashwe.

Iyindi nzira ni ukubandanya gutera igitsure "amato yo mu kinyegero"(ikizwi nka shadow fleet) y'Uburusiya afise uruhara mu gukwepa ibi bihano.

Milov agira ati: "Iki ni igikorwa kitoroshe. Bisaba ko buri gihe, uko amayinga kanaka aheze, usohora urutonde rushasha rw'ibihano vyafatiwe amato, amasosiyete rwihishwa, abacuruzi, amasosiyete y'ubwishingizi (assurances), n'abandi bantu babandanya bafasha gukwepa ibihano".

Nk'uko abivuga, ibihugu vy'Uburengero (nka Amerika n'ibihugu vy'Ubumwe bwa Buraya) vyaravyitwayemwo neza hano kuruta, canecane igihe ubutegetsi bwa Joe Biden bwafata ibihano bishasha imbere y'uko burangira muri Nzero (1) 2025.

Mai abona ko mu gihe amategeko yobuza Uburusiya gushorera gaze y'amazi i Bulaya no guhagarika ihingurwa ry'igitoro mu gifuri vyoba ari "intambwe zihambaye zotuma Uburengero buhagarika kugendera ku gitoro na gaze vy'Uburusiya".

Nk'uko bivugwa na Raghunandan wo muri CREA, bishobora kworohera Ubumwe bwa Bulaya guheba kugurira igitoro mu Burusiya.

Yabwiye BBC ati: "Ibice 50 kw'ijana vya gaze y'amazi (LNG) Uburusiya burungika hanze bija mu bihugu vy'Ubumwe bwa Buraya. Ariko muri 2024, ibi bihugu vyakoresheje gusa ibice 5 kw'ijana vya gaze iva mu Burusiya. Ni ukuvuga ko ari nka hamwe ibihugu vy'Ubumwe bwa Bulaya vyoheba burundu kugura gaze y'Uburusiya, bwokomereka cane kurusha uko abakiriya babwo b'i Bulaya bokomereka".

Umugambi wa Trump ku gitoro mu ntumbero yo guhagarika intambara

Abahinga bavuganye na BBC ntibemera iciyumviro ca Donald Trump c'uko intambara y'Uburusiya na Ukraine izohera mu gihe OPEC, ishirahamwe rihurikiyemwo ibihugu bishora igitoro, izogabanya ibiciro vy'igitoro.

Milov yabwiye BBC ati: "Abantu i Moscou baritwengera kuri iki ciyumviro, kuko uruhande ruzobabara gusumba…ni uruhande rwa Amerika mu bucukuzi bwayo bw'igitoro co mu rutare [ikizwi nka pétrole de schiste/shale oil] buzimvye cane gusumba ubundi bucukuzi bwose kw'isi".

Raghunandan avuga ko ikiguzi co gucukura igitoro mu Burusiya kiri hasi ugereranije n'ibindi bihugu vya Opec nka Arabia Sawudite, ibi bikumvikana rero ko ari vyo vyobabara cane imbere y'Uburusiya ari nka hamwe ibiciro vy'igitoro vyogabanywa.

Ati: "Arabia Sawudite ntishobora na gato kwemera ibi. Ibi ni ibintu vyageragejwe muri kahise. Vyateje imishamirano hagati ya Arabia Sawudite na Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika".

Umupfasoni Rosner avuga ko hari ibibazo bishingiye ku ngendo y'ubuntu n'ibishingiye kubaho, kubera Uburengero bwisanga butegerezwa kugura igitoro c'Uburusiya mu gihe butegerezwa gushigikira Ukraine.

Ati: "Ubu turi mu bihe aho turiko duha amahera uwateye intambara turiko tuyiramiriza, ariko kandi twongera dushigikira uruhande rwatewe.

"Uku kugendera ku gitoro na gaze bituma tuguma turi mu minwe y'abagenzura isoko yavyo, tugendera ku gushaka kw'abimbura ibitoro kw'isi hamwe n'abategetsi batwaza umukazo".